Tag: trade value chart

2024 NFL draft order and trade value chart

Here’s a look at the complete order of the 2024 NFL draft with trade values assigned to each pick.

The 2024 NFL draft will be held in Detroit this week from April 25-27. It will be a busy time for Denver Broncos general manager George Paton and head coach Sean Payton.

The Broncos have already made several trades this offseason. They acquired quarterback Zach Wilson from the New York Jets and sent wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns. More trades could be on the way — teams have called Denver about the status of receiver Courtland Sutton, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos make a few moves during the draft.

Courtesy of the NFL Wire’s Coley Cleary, we have a graphic of the complete order of the 2024 NFL draft that includes trade values for each pick.

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The values assigned to each pick are from Rich Hill‘s trade value model. Using this chart, fans can have some fun creating hypothetical trade scenarios for Denver during the draft. Here’s a look at the trade value chart:

(Coley Cleary, NFL Wire Network)

(To view a larger version of the image, click here.)

The Broncos currently hold pick No. 12 overall in the first round. Based on trade this chart, that pick is worth 347 points. Denver’s picks in the first and third (61) rounds equal 408 points, which would be — in theory — the compensation required to move up to pick No. 8 in a trade.

The Broncos hold eight total draft picks, including the second-to-last pick of the draft at the end of the seventh round on Saturday.

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The 2024 NFL draft trade value chart

The 2024 NFL draft trade value chart, based off the Rich Hill model

With all the uncertainty of what will happen during the 2024 NFL draft in Detroit this week, one thing is surefire: There will be trades. Lots of them in every round, more than likely.

NFL teams negotiate trade terms based on draft value charts. There are several different ones, with the most famous being the “Jimmy Johnson” chart from Johnson’s time running the Dallas Cowboys. That was back in the 1990s, however, and the changes in the game, the salary impact of rookie contracts and other factors have left Johnson’s value calculations somewhat antiquated.

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Here at Draft Wire and the other USA TODAY Wire network sites, we lean heavily on the draft value chart developed more recently. Known as the Rich Hill model, it stems from a modernizing of Johnson’s charts initially undertaken by Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit several years ago.

The values for each pick on the Hill model are here on one handy chart.

The values are more guidelines than they are strictly adhered to by teams. Player supply/demand at positions, relative state of the roster for the teams involved, and simple carnal desire to get a deal done can all create variances from steadfastly sticking to the values here. But the chart is a good reference point for seeing how realistic a trade proposal might be.

Full 2024 NFL draft order, trade value of all 257 picks

Will the Dolphins try to acquire an extra mid-round draft pick or two in the 2024 NFL draft?

The Miami Dolphins are set to pick six times in the 2024 NFL draft with one pick each in the first, second, fifth, and seventh rounds, along with a pair of selections in the sixth round.

With zero selections between Nos. 55 and 158 overall, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Dolphins made a trade to acquire more draft capital in the middle rounds of the order.

So what kind of compensation could Miami get if it slides down the order from No. 21 or No. 55? A look at the trade value chart is a good place to start.

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A few decades ago, Jimmy Johnson came up a revolutionary concept: a trade value chart that assigned a worth to every pick in the NFL draft.

These days every team uses a chart of its own, which are all more or less the same, according to Bill Belichick. While those aren’t made public, Pats Pulpit writer Rich Hill did the math to come up with a chart that seems to pretty accurately reflect the value teams place on their picks in today’s NFL.

With the 2024 NFL draft just a few days away, here’s how the order looks for all seven rounds and how much each pick is worth when it comes time to barter:

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Analytics models love the Vikings trade down in round 4

The trade value charts love the Minnesota Vikings trade down at the beginning of round four.

The Minnesota Vikings chose to move down in the fourth round at the 119th overall, acquiring the 134th pick and a 2024 fourth round pick from the Kansas City Chiefs. The move is similar to the trade the Vikings made last year to select Akayleb Evans, where the Vikings traded a 2022 fifth round pick and a 2023 fourth round pick to get him at 118th overall.

The trade charts tell a slightly different tale about the move, with the market value charts seeing the trade about average and the analytical-based charts viewing this move with elite value.

It was split between the traditional Jimmy Johnson and Rich Hill charts, but they are about equal in value. The analytical charts love the move, with the financial-based Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart having the Vikings getting 54.3% more value than the Chiefs.

The Vikings are likely to have to send their own fifth round pick to the Eagles in the Jalen Reagor trade, and this move replaces that pick.

In 2024, the Vikings are projected to have picks in the following rounds.

  • First round-1
  • Second round-1
  • Third round-0
  • Fourth round-2
  • Fifth round-1
  • Sixth round-1
  • Seventh round-0

2023 NFL draft order and trade value chart

Here’s a look at the complete order of the 2023 NFL draft with trade values for each pick.

The 2023 NFL draft will begin tonight and while the Denver Broncos aren’t scheduled to make their first pick until Day 2, it will be a busy weekend for general manager George Paton.

Paton loves draft-day trades and Broncos fans can probably expect Denver to make several moves over the weekend.

Courtesy of the NFL Wire’s Coley Cleary, we have a graphic of the complete order of the 2023 NFL draft that includes trade values for each pick.

The values assigned to each pick are from Rich Hill‘s trade value model. Using this chart, fans can have some fun creating hypothetical trade scenarios for the Broncos during the draft.

(Coley Cleary, NFL Wire Network)

(To view a larger version of the image, click here.)

Denver currently has five picks in the 2023 NFL draft, including back-to-back selections (Nos. 67-68 overall) in the third round. The picks have a combined value of 148 points on the trade value chart.

If, for example, the Broncos want to trade back into the second round of the draft, pick No. 62 has a trade value of 84 points. Denver could trade its later third-round pick (73 points) plus a fifth-round pick (16 points) in exchange for the second-round pick (84 points) and perhaps another late-round pick.

The first round of the draft will begin on Thursday evening.

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2023 NFL draft trade value chart

Here is the Rich Hill Model trade value chart.

The Indianapolis Colts are on the precipice of the 2023 NFL draft and if there’s anything we know about general manager Chris Ballard, it’s that trades are likely.

Whether the Colts will make a trade involving the No. 4 overall pick remains to be seen, and we probably won’t know until they are on the clock with the selection.

But given what we know about Ballard and his tendencies, trades will happen at some point during the weekend.

So with that, here’s a handy resource of the trade value chart using the Rich Hill Model:

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Trade value of Green Bay Packers 2023 draft picks

Mapping out the trade value of the Green Bay Packers draft picks in 2023 using the various trade value charts.

When the Aaron Rodgers trade becomes official, the Green Bay Packers will hold 11 picks in the 2023 draft, including four in the top 100 picks.

What are the value of the picks, based on trade value charts? Knowing is useful for understanding potential trades during the draft.

Here’s a quick rundown of the Packers’ picks in the four biggest models:

Jimmy Johnson model

1.13: 1150
2.42: 480
2.45: 450
3.78: 200
4.116: 62
5.149: 30.6
6.207: 7
7.232: 1
7.235: 1
7.242: 1
7.256: 1
Total: 2383.6 (reference: 2352.4 points in 2022)

Rich Hill model

1.13: 336
2.42: 142
2.45: 131
3.78: 59
4.116: 26
5.149: 12
6.207: 3
7.232: 2
7.235: 2
7.242: 1
7.256: 1
Total: 715 (reference: 753 points in 2022)

Rich Hill model

Fitzgerald-Spielberger model

1.13: 1700
2.42: 1106
2.45: 1071
3.78: 792
4.116: 591
5.149: 464
6.207: 298
7.232: 240
7.235: 233
7.242: 218
7.256: 190
Total: 6903 (reference: 7431 points in 2022)

Harvard trade value chart

1.13: 276.8
2.42: 159.1
2.45: 154.3
3.78: 114.4
4.116: 84.0
5.149: 64.2
6.207: 37.8
7.232: 30.0
7.235: 30.0
7.242: 30.0
7.256: 30.0
Total: 1010.6

Updated Chiefs’ 2023 NFL draft picks with trade value chart

Keep track of the trade value of all of the #Chiefs’ 2023 NFL draft picks here:

Over the years we’ve learned that only three things are certain in the NFL draft. Fans will boo the commissioner, a team will draft a kicker way too high, and Kansas City Chiefs GM Brett Veach will make a trade.

With 10 picks in the 2023 NFL draft, it’s a foregone certainty that Veach will make some sort of trade. In each of the past five drafts, Veach has traded draft capital to either move up in the draft or acquire a player. They’ve had varying degrees of success in doing so, but some of the best trades came last two years.

In 2021, the Chiefs acquired Orlando Brown Jr. ahead of the draft, plus pick No. 58 (Nick Bolton). They also traded up with the Jets to acquire Noah Gray in the fifth round. Last year, the Chiefs traded up in the first round to acquire CB Trent McDuffie. They also traded back from pick No. 50 to receive picks No. 54 (Skyy Moore) and No. 158 (Darian Kinnard).

How do NFL teams come to an agreement on the value of draft picks with trades taking place so frequently? Originally, the league used a trade value chart devised by former Dallas Cowboys’ head coach Jimmy Johnson. It was the widely accepted trade value chart in the NFL for at least a decade, but when the NFL implemented the ability to trade compensatory draft picks back in 2017, teams began to adopt their own unique systems.

In 2018, Pat’s Pulpit’s Rich Hill used some information from Patriots HC Bill Belichick to create a trade value chart that more accurately reflects what the NFL uses today. Below you’ll find the individual values of all 259 NFL draft picks this year based on Hill’s original chart:

Coley Cleary – USA TODAY SMG

Here is a look at the value of each of the Chiefs’ 12 picks and the total value of their picks:

  • Round 1, Pick 31: 190
  • Round 2, Pick 63: 82
  • Round 3, Pick 95: 40
  • Round 4, Pick 122 (via MIA for Tyreek Hill): 23
  • Round 4, Pick 134: 17
  • Round 5, Pick 166: 9
  • Round 6, Pick 178 (From CHI via MIA for Tyreek Hill): 6
  • Round 6, Pick 217 (Compensatory Pick): 3
  • Round 7, Pick 249: 1
  • Round 7, Pick 250 (Compensatory Pick): 1

Total value: 372

All 10 picks combined for Kansas City aren’t even equal to the value of the No. 9 overall pick. Teams aren’t always looking for 1-to-1 value in terms of these trades, especially if they’re using different value models. Things can get even more complex when you begin to involve future picks and players.

Be sure to check out the chart above and play around with some potential trades for Kansas City. Let us know the haul that you end up with on Twitter and Facebook.

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Lions scored a big value steal in trade up with Vikings

The Lions made out winners in trade value in the draft trade with the Minnesota Vikings

Now that the shock of the unexpected trade is over, the rational analysis of the Detroit Lions bundling three draft picks and shipping them to the Minnesota Vikings for the ability to acquire WR Jameson Williams gets to happen. From a draft value standpoint, the Lions are guilty of some larceny for what they did to their NFC North rival.

The Lions traded picks 32, 34 and 66 to the Vikings. In return, the Vikings sent Detroit No. 12 and No. 46 overall. Using the Rich Hill-inspired draft trade value chart, the deal strongly favors Detroit.

The values for the picks involved reflect the value the Lions acquired.

Minnesota’s picks:

No. 12 – 347

No. 46 – 128

Detroit’s picks:

No. 32 – 184

No. 34 – 175

No. 66 – 76

The Lions acquired 475 points in value and gave back just 435 in this chart, which is modified yearly to adapt to the changing value of contracts. Using the more familiar “Jimmy Johnson” chart, it’s an even bigger steal for the Lions.

In that value chart, created by Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson over 30 years ago and the generally accepted standard, the Vikings gave up 1,640 points and received just 1,410 in return from Detroit.

The values don’t mean much if the players acquired with the picks don’t perform as expected, of course. But from a straight value standpoint, Brad Holmes beat his new Vikings counterpart, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, in the trade.

 

Trade value of every Green Bay Packers draft pick in 2021

Green Bay Packers draft picks, draft order and trade value chart for the 2021 NFL draft.

The Green Bay Packers will go into the 2021 NFL draft with 10 picks: one original pick in each round plus compensatory picks in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds.

During his first three drafts, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has been active moving up and down the board to either target certain players or build capital. With 10 picks in 2021, he’ll likely be active for a fourth-straight draft.

The Jimmy Johnson trade value chart can be used (and is used) by teams to determine draft pick value. There are other ways to measure the value, but here is the individual trade value of the Packers’ 10 picks using the Johnson model:

  • First round, No. 29 overall: 640 points
  • Second round, No. 62 overall: 284 points
  • Third round, No. 92 overall: 132 points
  • Fourth round, No. 135 overall: 38.5 points
  • Fourth round, No. 142 overall: 35 points
  • Fifth round, No. 173 overall: 20.6 points
  • Fifth round, No. 178 overall: 18.6 points
  • Sixth round. No. 214 overall: 4.2 points
  • Sixth round, No. 220 overall: 1.7 points
  • Seventh round, No. 256 overall: 1 point
  • Total value (10 picks): 1,175.6 points (1,115.2 points in 2020)

Here’s the full draft order, with corresponding trade values:

According to Tankathon, the Packers are going into the 2021 draft ranked 25th in the NFL in draft capital.

Here’s an example of a trade using the Johnson model. Let’s say the Packers want to trade up with the Indianapolis Colts at No. 21 overall. The difference between the No. 21 and No. 29 overall picks is 160 points. At the very least, the Packers would likely have to offer their third-round pick (132 points) for the Colts to consider the offer.

Here is the Rich Hill model of trade value:

  • First round, No. 29 overall: 203 points
  • Second round, No. 62 overall: 84 points
  • Third round, No. 92 overall: 43 points
  • Fourth round, No. 135 overall: 18 points
  • Fourth round, No. 142 overall: 15 points
  • Fifth round, No. 173 overall: 8 points
  • Fifth round, No. 178 overall: 7 points
  • Sixth round. No. 214 overall: 3 points
  • Sixth round, No. 220 overall: 3 points
  • Seventh round, No. 256 overall: 1 point
  • Total value (10 picks): 385 points (357 points in 2020)

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