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It all comes down to this. The season will wrap up with the final leg of the FedExCup Playoffs this week, the 2024 Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Ga. The winner will claim the season-long FedExCup title and $25 million in winnings, so there’s a lot on the line for the 30 players in the field.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets from BetMGM Sportsbook among the 2024 Tour Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scottie Scheffler (+110) will start atop the leaderboard this week thanks to the staggered start. He’ll begin with a score of 10-under par, followed by Xander Schauffele (-8), Hideki Matsuyama (-7), Keegan Bradley (-6) and Ludvig Aberg (-5). The rest of the field:
4-under: Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay.
3-under: Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Tony Finau
2-under: Byeong Hun An, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Akshay Bhatia, Robert MacIntyre
1-under: Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Matthieu Pavon, Taylor Pendrith
Even par: Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Thomas
East Lake Golf Club underwent renovations after last year’s Tour Championship, with greens being expanded, bunkers being relocated and fairway slopes being changed. It will now play as a par-71 at 7,490 yards after the 14th hole was converted to a par 5.
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Tour Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET.
Rory McIlroy (+140)
McIlroy starts the week tied for 6th at 4-under par, 6 shots behind Scheffler. He certainly has a chance to chase down the leader like he did 2 years ago, but a safer way to play McIlroy to have another good week at East Lake is betting him to finish in the top 5. It’s a good value at +140.
Ludvig Aberg (+140)
If this number seems short for Aberg, it’s because he’s already starting the week in 5th place at 5-under par. So essentially, all he has to do is maintain his position and play decently well to stay in the top 5. With his high ball flight and impressive iron game, he’s a good fit for East Lake, even with this being his tournament debut.
Sam Burns (+275)
Burns got red hot on Sunday at the BMW Championship, firing a 7-under 65 to get within 1 shot of the champion Bradley. At a course with Bermuda greens, he should have the rock rolling, which could lead to some low scores for the 28-year-old.
Tour Championship – Top-10 picks
Viktor Hovland (+100)
Hovland starts the week tied for 16th, so he has some work to do in order to get into the top 10. The defending champion here, Hovland is a great pick to have a strong week, even after his 26th-place finish in Denver a week ago. His ball-striking is really rounding into form.
Tony Finau (+110)
Finau is one shot ahead of Hovland, which means he’ll start tied for 11th. He ranked 2nd in strokes gained: tee-to-green last week at the BMW Championship. It’s just that his putter failed him, ranking 47th out of 50 players in SG: putting. That’s been the problem for him all year, but if the putter gets going, he’ll rise up the leaderboard.
Justin Thomas (+300)
Excluding starting strokes, Thomas has finished 4th, 4th, 3rd and 9th in his last 9 Tour Championship starts. That’s pretty darn good. He was the last man in the field so he’s starting tied for 26th at even par, but this is a course he loves and if anyone can heat up in Atlanta, it’s Thomas.
Sepp Straka (+300)
Straka has played the Tour Championship twice, finishing with the 6th-lowest 72-hole score in each of the last 2 years. He just tied for 13th at the BMW Championship and now heads to Atlanta where he’s had success before.
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Tour Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Keegan Bradley (+100) vs. Collin Morikawa (-125)
Morikawa has struggled in back-to-back weeks with his approach game, which is concerning as he heads to East Lake. Bradley, on the other hand, was 2nd in SG: approach last week and 6th off the tee, so his ball-striking is in great form. Plus, he’s starting 1 shot ahead of Morikawa.
Tour Championship – First-round leader
Xander Schauffele (+250)
It’s hard to find value in the 1st-round leader market because Scheffler is already at 10-under, but we could see a 3-shot swing between he and Schauffele on Thursday, thrusting Schauffele into the lead after Round 1.
Tour Championship – Winner without starting strokes
Xander Schauffele (+450)
Schauffele is 85-under par at East Lake since 2017 – 30 shots better than any other player in that span. That excludes starting strokes, which shows just how well he’s played here. He’s had the lowest 72-hole score in 2 of the last 4 years, too. This is the market to bet Schauffele in.
Justin Thomas (+2800)
Thomas missed the playoffs last year so he didn’t make it to East Lake, but He’s been top 4 in scoring without starting strokes in his last 3 starts here. He barely snuck into the Tour Championship as the 30th-ranked player, so he has a chance to make the most of it by playing well this week.
Sepp Straka (+4500)
As previously mentioned, Straka has been 6th in scoring without starting strokes the last 2 years. If there’s a long shot to bet, it’s Straka.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Golfweek:
- Tour Championship 2024 odds, starting strokes and picks to win
- Prize money, full field, starting strokes format for 2024 Tour Championship at East Lake
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