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The FedExCup Playoffs will come to a close this weekend at East Lake Golf Club, which is hosting the 2023 Tour Championship once again. The 1st round begins on Thursday from Atlanta.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Tour Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scottie Scheffler comes into the week as the heavy favorite (+140), holding the poll position in the FedExCup standings. That earns him a 2-shot cushion to start the tournament, beginning the week at 10-under par thanks to the staggered scoring format. Viktor Hovland will start at 8-under par, while Rory McIlroy (7-under), Jon Rahm (6-under) and Lucas Glover (5-under) will follow behind Scheffler. Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth and Sepp Straka will begin the week 10 shots back at even par.
East Lake Golf Club is a par 70 and plays at 7,346 yards, with 2 of the par 5s being played as par 4s during the Tour Championship. It features some of the narrowest fairways on tour, which makes driving accuracy essential because the rough is thick and penalizing.
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Tour Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 2:17 p.m. ET.
Xander Schauffele (+170)
Schauffele starts 7 shots back of Scheffler and is tied for 11th to begin the week, meaning he has to overtake at least 6 players just to have a chance at the top 5. I’m confident he can do that, given his track record here. In his last 6 starts here, he’s never finished worse than 7th without starting strokes applied, leading the field with the lowest 72-hole score twice.
Max Homa (+160)
Homa comes into this week red hot, improving his finish in each of his last 5 starts: T-21, T-12, T-10, T-6 and T-5 since the start of July. He had the 3rd-lowest 72-hole score last year and starts the week tied for 6th, so he doesn’t have a ton of ground to make up.
Brian Harman (+300)
Harman starts the week tied with Homa for 6th at 4-under par, but we don’t need him to overcome the 6-shot deficit to Scheffler with this bet. He just has to finish in the top 5. In his last 24 rounds, he’s only shot over 70 twice.
Tour Championship – Top-10 picks
Sungjae Im (+160)
Im nearly took down McIlroy last year when he finished T-2 with Scheffler thanks to rounds of 67, 65, 66 and 66. This year, he starts tied for 16th at 2-under but he has the ability to heat up quickly with how frequently he makes birdies.
Russell Henley (-105)
Henley is starting tied for 11th at 3-under. This is only his 2nd time playing the Tour Championship since 2017 but his accuracy off the tee will keep him in the short grass and able to attack pins.
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Tour Championship – Winner without bonus strokes
Xander Schauffele (+1200)
Schauffele has cashed this bet twice in his last 6 starts here and he’s also finished 2nd and 3rd once each in that span. As previously mentioned, he’s never finished worse than 7th without the bonus strokes applied, owning the highest total strokes gained here since 2015, per Ron Klos.
Rory McIlroy (+550)
McIlroy is a perennial contender at East Lake, winning the Tour Championship just last year after taking down Scheffler. Without bonus strokes, he’s finished with the low 72-hole score 3 times since 2016.
Tour Championship – Matchups (bonus strokes applied)
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Brian Harman (-120) vs. Lucas Glover (-105)
It might feel risky to bet Harman at -120 considering he’s spotting Glover a shot to start the week, but one shot is nothing for him to overcome. It might be time to fade Glover, who finished 22nd out of 50 players last week at the BMW Championship. He could be running out of steam, but I don’t think the same can be said for Harman.
Russell Henley (-125) vs. Rickie Fowler (+100)
Since his win in July, Fowler has finished 25th, 58th, 23rd and 42nd, so he hasn’t exactly played that well lately. Henley is deadly accurate with his driver and had the 3rd-lowest 72-hole score without strokes in 2017, his last appearance at East Lake.
Tour Championship – Top Asian
Sungjae Im (+138)
Tom Kim (+175) and Si Woo Kim (+225) are the only other competitors in this wager, and they all start at 2-under par, so they’re playing straight-up this week. Im has the best track record here and has 2 top-10 finishes in his last 2 starts this season.
Tour Championship – First-round leader
Rory McIlroy (+500)
It’s tough to bet on the 1st-round leader this week because Scheffler has a 2-shot lead over the next-closest guy, Hovland, but McIlroy is one worth betting because when he’s in a position to chase, he can go really low.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group B winner: Xander Schauffele (+275)
Schauffele and Homa are tied as the favorites in this group, followed by Glover (+375), Matt Fitzpatrick (+450) and Wyndham Clark (+450). I’ve already mentioned how well Schauffele has played here in the past, making him the best player to bet in this group.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Golfweek:
- 2023 Tour Championship odds, course history and picks to win
- 5 things we learned from Commissioner Jay Monahan’s State of the PGA Tour press conference
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