Tag: Toronto Blue Jays odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (89-55) meet the Toronto Blue Jays (81-63) Tuesday for the second game of their three-game set at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Rays lead 8-6.

RHP Drew Rasmussen gets the nod for the Rays. Rasmussen is 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA (61 IP, 22 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in seven starts and 25 relief appearances with the Rays and Milwaukee Brewers.

  • Last outing: Win, 12-7, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 2 K Sept. 7 at the Boston Red Sox.
  • Starter splits: 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA (27 IP, 7 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB.

RHP Jose Berrios is Toronto’s projected starter. Berrios is 11-7 with a 3.52 ERA (166 1/3 IP, 65 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 28 starts for the Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-4, with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday at the New York Yankees.
  • vs. Rays on the current roster (52 PA): 1.99 FIP with a .085 batting average, .148 wOBA, .287 expected slugging percentage, 40.4 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity.

Rays at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:53 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Blue Jays -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-165) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Blue Jays 7, Rays 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS (-150) for a half unit only because this is on the absolute fringe of my price range considering the Rays are the defending AL champions with the best record in the league.

However, Toronto is white-hot lately, winning 12 of its last 13 games by an average score of 8.8-4.3 and stack up nicely against Tampa in the pitching departments. The Blue Jays are the most productive lineup in MLB lately.

Toronto’s lineup has 172 wRC+ over the last two weeks – 35 higher than the next closest team. Its top-ranked .427 wOBA over that span is 54 percentage points higher than the second-place club.

Also, the Blue Jays’ relief unit is third in xFIP since the All-Star Game while the Rays are just 16th. Toronto’s bullpen being top-10 in the second half of the year combined with Berrios being a “top of the rotation” starter makes the pitching matchup a wash.

Lastly, we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market as nearly two-thirds of the cash wagered is on Toronto but a slight majority of the bets placed are with Tampa, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing, and sportsbooks have responded by making the favorite more expensive. In sports betting, you’d much rather follow the money rather than the crowd.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+135) for a tiny wager because the chunky payout is high enough to justify laying it with Toronto against a Rays team that’s 27-9 ATS as road underdogs and 45-23 ATS in division games. The Blue Jays are raking right now and I don’t have a lot of confidence in Rasmussen shutting down this Toronto lineup.

That said, this is the “square” side and I’d rather pay more for Toronto’s money line than chase the value of Blue Jays -1.5 (+135).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-135) for a half unit because the presumed “sharp” money says Rays-Blue Jays will be a high-scoring affair while the public prefers the Under.

Also, Tampa is 21-14-1 O/U as a road underdog, 38-27-3 O/U against AL East teams and Toronto is 4-0-2 O/U in the last six games.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (64-58) host the Chicago White Sox (72-53) Monday for the start of a four-game set at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the White Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: White Sox lead 2-1.

RHP Lance Lynn is on the mound for the White Sox. Lynn is 10-3 with a 2.26 ERA (123 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 22 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 3-2 win over the Oakland Athletics Wednesday.
  • Lynn took a no-decision against Toronto with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K in Chicago’s 6-2 loss June 9.
    • vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 3.77 FIP with a .267 batting average (BA), .327 wOBA, .439 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.8 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 93 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Alek Manoah makes his 13th start for the Blue Jays. Manoah is 5-2 with a 3.34 ERA (62 IP, 23 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 12-6, with 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 2 K Tuesday at the Washington Nationals.
  • Manoah also got a no-decision in Toronto’s 6-2 victory over Chicago June 9 with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
    • vs. White Sox on the current roster: 1.91 FIP with a .231 BA, .231 wOBA, .419 xSLG, 15.4 K% and 92.9 mph EV in 13 PA.

White Sox at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: White Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Blue Jays -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: White Sox -1.5 (+140) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Blue Jays 5, White Sox 3

Money line (ML)

This is a good price for the BLUE JAYS (-105) who’ve been consistent in Toronto aside from dropping two of three this past weekend against the Detroit Tigers. Also, the White Sox are just 30-29 on the road, and there’s value in backing Manoah in this spot.

First of all, Manoah got drilled in his last start, but that was on the road, and he’s a lot more effective at home. For instance, Manoah is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 6 ER) and 0.95 WHIP in five home starts.

Moreover, the Blue Jays are 3-0 coming off a loss with Manoah on the bump, including their 6-2 win over the White Sox June 9 when they gave Lynn the start. Not only that, but Manoah has a big-game pitcher moxie, and the Blue Jays are fighting for an AL Wild Card berth.

This outing against the White Sox qualifies as a “big game” given Toronto’s place in the standings. Manoah is 3-1 against teams with a winning record with a 1.65 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 3.3 K/BB and hasn’t allowed a home run.

BET 1 unit on the BLUE JAYS (-105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

As awesome as it would be to have Toronto’s run line for insurance on our money line bet, the Blue Jays +1.5 (-180) is just a little out of my price range.

PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER (-107) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I prefer Toronto’s money line more than the total in this contest.

However, we have two “top of the rotation” guys on the mound Monday, and Lynn has the lowest ERA for any starter in the AL. In addition, both teams have played more to the Under in their location-based situational trends.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (63-56) host the Detroit Tigers (58-65) Friday for the start of their three-game set at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 0-0.

LHP Tyler Alexander is on the rubber for the Tigers. Alexander is 2-2 with a 4.57 ERA (65 IP, 33 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in eight starts and 24 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-4, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K Aug. 13 against the Cleveland Indians.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-0 with a 4.78 ERA (32 IP, 17 ER), 1.34 WHIP and 3.9 K/BB in three starts and 14 bullpen outings.

LHP Robbie Ray makes his 24th start for the Blue Jays. Ray is 9-5 with a 2.88 ERA (137 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Toronto’s 3-2 loss Aug. 13 at the Seattle Mariners.
  • 2021 home splits: 5-3 with a 2.82 ERA (67 IP, 21 ER), 1.05 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB in 11 starts.

Tigers at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:43 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Tigers +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Blue Jays -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +2.5 (-125) | Blue Jays -2.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Tigers 6, Blue Jays 5

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the TIGERS (+230) for a tiny wager  – if at all – because I like Detroit’s run line in this spot and this payout is far too chunky considering how awful Toronto’s bullpen has been since the All-Star Game.

The Tigers are 22-18 against left-handed starters and vs. 11-8 against AL East teams while the Blue Jays are just 15-17 against lefty starters.

A major reason for Toronto’s recent mediocrity is due to the struggles of its bullpen which ranks dead last in WAR and grades out worse than Detroit’s in SIERA, xFIP, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate in the second half of the season.

It’s not like Detroit’s relievers are lighting the world on fire but Toronto’s bullpen concerns give me a lot of confidence Detroit can either sneak in the backdoor late or steal this game outright.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the TIGERS +2.5 (-125) heavier than or instead of Detroit’s money line for all the logic written above.

On top of that, the Blue Jays are just 11-12 ATS when Ray gets the start with a minus-10.4% return on investment (ROI) if you bet on their run line. In addition, the Tigers have a plus-76.8% ROI with a 7-1 ATS record in Alexander’s eight starts this season.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-105) for a half unit only because I much prefer the Detroit side more than the total in this contest.

Both teams play more to the over in their location-based situational trends, the Tigers are 7-2-1 O/U in their past 10 games and the Blue Jays are 8-2 O/U in their past 10 games.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (63-55) and Washington Nationals (51-68) wrap up their two-game interleague series Wednesday at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington clobbered Toronto Tuesday 12-6 by roughing up Blue Jays starting RHP Alek Manoah for 6 ER on 6 H and 1 BB just 2 K in 3 IP.

Season series: Nationals lead 2-1.

RHP Jose Berrios is Toronto’s projected starter. Berrios is 8-6 with a 3.52 ERA (138 IP, 54 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 23 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-3, with 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 4 BB and 3 K Thursday at the Los Angeles Angels.
  • 2021 road splits: 3-3 with a 4.29 ERA (63 IP, 30 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB.

RHP Josiah Gray is on the rubber for the Nationals. Gray is 0-1 with a 4.13 ERA (24 IP, 11 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in four starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 6 K Friday against the Atlanta Braves.
  • 2021 home splits: 0-1 with a 4.74 ERA (19 IP, 10 ER), 16 H, 7 BB and 21 K in three starts and one relief appearance.

Blue Jays at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:08 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Blue Jays -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Nationals +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (-102) | Nationals +1.5 (-122)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Nationals 6, Blue Jays 3

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the NATIONALS (+140) for a tiny wager – if at all – as more of a fade against Berrios on the road and because Gray is due to a decent home start.

Gray has elite talent. He’s the first-ranked prospect in Washington’s system, and 19th-ranked in MLB, and was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline when the Nationals sold Max Scherzer and SS Trea Turner.

Berrios’ teams are 5-6 this season in his road starts and he has been even less effective on the road throughout his career. For instance, Berrios is 23-24 with a 4.71 ERA (3.44 home ERA), 1.35 WHIP (1.12 home WHIP) and 2.5 K/BB (3.9 K/BB at home).

Furthermore, I’m noticing a little “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market as nearly 90% of the action is on Toronto according to Pregame.com. However, the Blue Jays have been steamed down across most sportsbooks from a -175 consensus favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the NATIONALS +1.5 (-122) heavier than or instead of Washington’s money line for all the logic written above and because it’s wiser to take the run-and-a-half worth of insurance at this price point.

Also, even though Washington’s bullpen has been awful lately, Toronto’s bullpen isn’t much better so the “backdoor is open” so to speak. In fact, these bullpens are tied with the third-worst WAR in August.

Lastly, this could be considered a good spot for the Nationals who are 11-5 ATS in interleague contests and 17-14 ATS as home underdogs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 9 (-122) as a contrarian play against a market that’s barrelling into the Over currently. We are seeing RLM with most of the action on the Over but the Under has a lot more vig.

On top of that, both teams play more to the Under in this “spot” considering the location of the game and the interleague matchup.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (50-68) host the Toronto Blue Jays (63-54) Tuesday for the first half of a two-game interleague miniseries at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Toronto snapped a three-game losing skid by beating the Seattle Mariners 8-3 in their series finale Sunday. The Blue Jays are 13-7 across their last 20 games and are 4 games back of the Oakland Athletics for the second AL Wild Card berth.

Washington’s freefall is on as the Nationals are riding a seven-game losing skid, have won just once in their last 10 games, and are 5-15 over their last 20 contests.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Alek Manoah is Toronto’s projected starter. He is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA (59 IP, 17 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 11 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 10-2, with a 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 11 K Wednesday at the Los Angeles Angels.
  • 2021 road stats: 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB across six starts.

RHP Erick Fedde makes his 20th start for the Nationals. He is 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA (91 1/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Washington’s 5-4 loss at the New York Mets Thursday.
  • Fedde beat Toronto April 28 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 7 K in Washington’s 8-2 victory.
    • vs. Blue Jays on the current roster (28 PA): 7.53 FIP with a .280 batting average, .389 wOBA, .480 expected slugging percentage, 10.7 K% and 85.1 mph exit velocity

Blue Jays at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Blue Jays -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (-125) | Nationals +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Blue Jays 8, Nationals 1

Money line (ML)

PASS even though there has been “sharp” line movement in Toronto’s direction. The Blue Jays (-220) opened as -155 money line favorites but have been steamed up to the current number.

Toronto has an edge in the three most important phases of the game: bullpen and starting pitching, and hitting.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Manoah was one of the highest acclaimed pitching prospects in the minor leagues and has looked the part since being called up to The Show. His pitching peripherals add even more credibility to his performance than his basic numbers while Fedde’s don’t.

Furthermore, the Blue Jays have continued to hit well this month as Toronto’s lineup is in the top 10 in wRC+, wOBA and BB/K while the Nationals are bottom 10 by wRC+ and wOBA in August.

Also, Washington’s bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors this month and ranks in the bottom five by xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and HR/9.

There has also been the same sharp line movement in the betting market with Toronto’s run line as the money line. Lastly, Toronto is 13-5 ATS in interleague matchups this season.

BET the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-125) for 1 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-122) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I much prefer Toronto’s run line than the total.

However, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market as 64% of the money is on the Under whereas 54% of the bets placed are on the Over, according to Pregame.com. It’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money rather than the crowd.

In addition, these teams have a combined 13-18-2 O/U in interleague games and 10-29 O/U when playing after a day off.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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