The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. The green flag drops Sunday at 3 p.m. ET with the race televised on NBCSN. Below, we analyze the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
O’Reilly Auto Parts 500: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:05 a.m. ET.
Sunday’s race at Texas Motor Speedway will be the 39th installment since its NASCAR Cup Series debut race back in 1997 – won by Jeff Burton.
- Kevin Harvick won last season’s race from the pole, and has taken checkers in three of the past five Cup races in Fort Worth. Last year’s win from the pole was the first time that had been done in 13 Texas races when Kyle Busch turned the trick in the spring 2013 race.
- Harvick has registered 10 straight finishes inside the top 10 at Texas, and has been 10th or better in 22 of his 34 Cup starts at the track.
- Joe Gibbs Racing’s Erik Jones leads all drivers with a 9.43 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in seven Cup starts, while Ganassi Racing’s Matt Kenseth is second among active drivers with a 9.47 AFP in 30 Texas starts.
- Chevrolet has been to Victory Lane just once in the past eight Texas starts, while Ford has three wins and Toyota has four checkered flags during the span.
- Seven-time champ Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with seven Cup victories at Texas. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Harvick each have three victories at the track.
Who is going to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500?
HARVICK (+350 for Sunday’s race) has not only been the gold standard at Texas Motor Speedway lately, but he and HAMLIN (+600) have been the two most consistent drivers since NASCAR resumed the regular season.
Harvick has two wins in the past four Cup races, and has been 10th or better in 14 of his 17 starts overall this season.
JOHNSON (+2200) hasn’t won since the June 4, 2017, Dover race. Eventually the No. 48 machine is going to return to Victory Lane. Why not in Texas? Johnson, who will start out of the 20th spot in Sunday’s grid, won from the 24 spot in the 2017 spring race. J.J. is certainly worth a small-unit bet at this price point.
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JOEY LOGANO (+1100) is a pretty strong value at this price given the fact he has finished seventh or better in seven of the past eight Texas starts. He hasn’t won since the Duck Commander 500 back in spring 2014, but his 10 top-5 finishes in 23 Cup starts at TMS is certainly impressive.
Texas Motor Speedway long-shot bets
WILLIAM BYRON (+3500) has rather long odds, but he is worth a look this weekend. He was 17th in the fall race at Texas, but he has finished 10th and sixth in the previous two spring runs in Fort Worth.
MATT KENSETH (+3500) has a pair of Texas wins on his resume, while posting 14 top-5 runs, 19 top-10 finishes and 883 laps led in 30 career Cup starts with a 9.47 AFP. As such he certainly warrants plenty of consideration.
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