UFC 280: Aljamain Sterling vs. TJ Dillashaw odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 280 odds and lines between Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a bantamweight title fight in the main event, Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw meet Saturday at UFC 280 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC 280: Sterling vs. Dillashaw odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The fight can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+ with the prelims beginning at 10:30 a.m. ET and the main card at 2 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

The defending champ Sterling takes the walk with the belt, a 1-inch height advantage and a 4-inch reach advantage. The “Funk Master” is coming off a split-decision win over Petr Yan last time out at UFC 273 in early April.

While the veteran Dillashaw holds a slight 5.26-to-4.56 significant-strikes-landed-per-minute advantage, Sterling is much more accurate at 58.72% to just 47.72% for the challenger. The ground game for both fighters is fairly equal with perhaps an ever-so-slight advantage in favor of Sterling.

Dillashaw held the bantamweight title after knocking out Cody Garbrandt not once, but twice. However, in January 2019, he was dropped down to flyweight and was knocked out in 32 seconds by Henry Cejudo, losing a chance to be a two-division champ. To make matters worse, he took the banned substance EPO to keep his energy level up while cutting weight.

Dillashaw was suspended two years for doping, but he returned to the octagon in a fight night main event July 24, 2021, and stopped Cory Sandhagen by split decision to position himself for another title shot.

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UFC 280: Sterling vs. Dillashaw odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:07 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Sterling -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Dillashaw +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -220 | Under +155)
  • Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-180) | No (+130)

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UFC 280: Sterling vs. Dillashaw picks and predictions

Records: Sterling (21-3-0) | Dillashaw (18-4-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

STERLING (-190). The cutoff price I feel comfortable betting a fighter on a 2-way line is -180. However, I’m willing to play Sterling at -190 in this one. He is the champ, and he hasn’t had a super long layoff in recent years.

Dillashaw did enough to win over two of the three judges in the Garbrandt fight, but that’s his only appearance in the octagon in over three and a half years.

Sterling is the more battle-tested fighter. He likely will have the better cardio, and he’ll be able to weather the storm and make a lot of fans happy by dumping Dillashaw.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET YES (-180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE.

As mentioned, -180 is the most juice I feel comfortable betting straight up.

Sterling has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 5 fights, and he might have ended up going all the way at UFC 259 in the DQ fight against Yan.

Dillashaw went the distance in his return from suspension, and he has ended up with just 3 finishes in the past 7 fights overall.

Taking STERLING BY POINTS (+133) isn’t a bad idea, either.

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T.J. Dillashaw no cree que el #$%& ardido de Dominick Cruz vuelva a tener la oportunidad de recuperar el cinturón

T.J. Dillashaw Respondió a los comentarios de Dominick Cruz sobre su oportunidad al título. En una entrevista con “The MMA-Hour,” el dos veces peso gallo de la UFC, Cruz dijo que Dillashaw (17-4 MMA, 13-4 UFC) teniendo la oportunidad de ir contra el …

T.J. DillashawRespondió a los comentarios de Dominick Cruz sobre su oportunidad al título.

En una entrevista con “The MMA-Hour,” el dos veces peso gallo de la UFC, Cruz dijo que Dillashaw (17-4 MMA, 13-4 UFC) teniendo la oportunidad de ir contra el campeón reinante Aljamain Sterling era un “conecte” de la UFC.

Cruz señaló que Dillashaw dio positivo en un antidoping por eritropoyetina humana recombinante (rHuEPO) en el 2019, lo que resultó en una suspensión por la Agencia Anti-Doping de EU. y la renuncia voluntaria de su título peso gallo. Después de la suspensión, Dillashaw derrotó a Cory Sandhagen y se proyecta que se el siguiente en fila para pelear contra Sterling, lo cual Cruz entiende, pero no está necesariamente de acuerdo.

“Se oye como un #$% ardido, para ser honestos,” le dijo Dillashaw a Submission Radio. Creo que está obviamente celoso de que sigo en la cima, ya sabes – mi tiempo fuera y el cuánto tiempo he estado en el deporte y todavía poder regresar y demostrar que sigo siendo el mejor. Y perdí dinero, ¿no? El no pelear durante dos años siendo el campeón es mucho dinero fuera de mi bolsillo. (Si hubiera) seguido juntando triunfos, obteniendo defensas del título, o sea, estamos hablando de millones y millones de dólares que se me salieron de las manos porque cometí un #$% error.

Así que sí, ya pagué mi culpa, regresé y he trabajado %&/ para obtener ese triunfo en una p****e pierna y un ojo y no hay nada que puedan hacer para negarme mi oportunidad.  Como ya dije, está ardido, y esa es su personalidad, igual. Es un tipo poco simpático. O sea, siempre lo he respetado y creo que tiene un buen ojo para las cosas, pero es como si estuviera resentido y cree que se merece todo y siempre se está quejando por m****s.”

Cruz (24-3 MMA, 7-2 UFC) destronó a Dillashaw en el 2016, una pelea que Dillashaw insiste que él ganó. A pesar que Cruz viene de triunfos seguidos sonre Casey Kenney y Pedro Munhoz, Dillashaw no cree que vuelva a tener una oportunidad de obtener el título o de que haya una revancha entre ellos dos.

“Es su forma de ser, así que por supuesto va a decir eso,” dijo Dillashaw. Pero es porque nunca va a volver a llegar hasta allá.  No creo que vuelva a tener una oportunidad de ir por el cinturón y eso probablemente le molesta proque en algún momento fue el mejor.

O sea, tengo mejores cosas que hacer para ser honesto. Si todo se acomoda, recuperaré mi cinturón, (Henry) Cejudo dice que está de regreso, tienen a Jose Aldo. Hay cuates más peligrosos y notables con quienes pelear.”

Facial cut forces T.J. Dillashaw from UFC comeback fight vs. Cory Sandhagen

The wait to see T.J. Dillashaw step back in the UFC octagon just got a little longer.

The wait to see [autotag]T.J. Dillashaw[/autotag] step back in the UFC octagon just got a little longer.

Dillashaw, a former two-time UFC bantamweight champion, was scheduled to meet [autotag]Cory Sandhagen[/autotag] in the UFC on ESPN 24 headliner on May 8 in what would be his first bout since January 2019 following a two-year doping suspension.

Dillashaw suffered a cut above his eye in training that was subsequently infected. He was hopeful to compete, but did not receive clearance from doctors. Twitter user C. Contreras Legaspi was first to report Dillashaw (16-4 MMA, 12-4 UFC) vs. Sandhagen (14-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC) was in jeopardy.

The former UFC champ posted a statement on Tuesday announcing the news (via Instagram):

https://www.instagram.com/p/COMJZiErZrK

I’m sad to say that I have to be pulled from my fight on May 8th due to a cut received from a head butt while drilling. Rescheduling the fight as soon as possible.

Dillashaw, 35, recently completed a two-year U.S. Anti-Doping Agency suspension stemming from a positive drug test for EPO in January 2019 – the testing timeframe of his first-round TKO loss in a flyweight title challenge against then-champion Henry Cejudo.

The fight in which Dillashaw tested was his first attempt at flyweight competition, and it came on the heels of a four-fight winning streak that included back-to-back TKO wins over rival Cody Garbrandt.

As for Sandhagen, he’s been unblemished in his UFC tenure minus an 88-second loss to Aljamain Sterling in June 2020. Since that defeat, Sandhagen has won back-to-back fights by knockout. In October, Sandhagen defeated Marlon Moraes by spinning wheel kick and punches before he earned a potential 2021 “Knockout of the Year” candidate with a brutal flying knee knockout of Frankie Edgar in February.

According to a report from ESPN, a strawweight matchup between Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez could serve as the new UFC on ESPN 24 headliner.

The UFC on ESPN 24 lineup now includes:

  • Cory Sandhagen vs. TBA
  • Donald Cerrone vs. Diego Sanchez
  • Zarrukh Adashev vs. Ryan Benoit
  • Maurice Greene vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
  • Christian Aguilera vs. Carlston Harris
  • Tafon Nchukwi vs. Jun Yong Park
  • Philipe Lins vs. Ben Rothwell
  • Angela Hill vs. Amanda Ribas
  • Neil Magny vs. Geoff Neal
  • Ludovit Klein vs. Mike Trizano
  • Kyle Daukaus vs. Phil Hawes
  • Diego Ferreira vs. Gregor Gillespie

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