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March Madness: Friday’s best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog pick and prediction

Beat the Sportsbook: Here is Friday’s best Sweet 16 underdog bet for the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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We are now into Week 2 of the NCAA Tournament. While some favorites were knocked out, it has mostly been a bracket playing to chalk through the first 2 rounds. We’ll likely still get a surprise or two as we make our way toward the Final Four. Below, we break down FanDuel Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Friday’s best Sweet 16 underdog bet to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Prior to Thursday’s action, a quarter of the Sweet 16 come from seeds 5-or-higher. Two of the 16 (Clemson, NC State) are from outside the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. Four are — or were — tabbed as underdogs of 5½ points or more.

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Friday’s NCAA Tournament underdog pick

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:51 p.m. ET.

Gonzaga +5.5 (-110) vs. Purdue – 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)

This game is Friday’s 1st Midwest Region semifinal at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, and it features the No. 1 seed Boilermakers against the No. 5 Bulldogs.

Prior to the Tournament much was made of Purdue’s past upset losses in the Big Dance — each when favored by a double-digit margin — each of the last 2 years. But Purdue has ridden the sensational play of C Zach Edey to easy wins this Tournament over No. 16 Grambling and No. 8 Utah State. The Boilermaker behemoth averaged 26.5 points and 17.5 rebounds on 67.9% shooting in the 2 wins.

Gonzaga has had its offense in really high gear since about mid-January. The Bulldogs are 16-2 and averaging 85.7 points per game since Jan. 18. During that stretch, they have shot 54% from the field and 40.5% from 3-point range. It’s the Zags’ ability to knock down contested inside buckets and not have to rely on 3’s that looms large in this matchup against this Purdue five that is not as dominant in defending the interior as one might assume.

Overall, Purdue is the better defensive team. KenPom ranks the Boilermakers’ defensive efficiency at No. 15 in the nation, while the Zags are 44th. But the late-season trend line has Gonzaga closing the gap and of late playing quite well at that end of the floor.

Gonzaga has big bodies inside and depth there as well. Look for the Bulldogs to be a fair play on the money line (currently at +195, would take GU at +205 or better), but there figures to be a high enough probability of a 1-possession game to give bettors solid leverage on GONZAGA +5.5 (-110).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin /
College Sports Wire: Men’s hoops / Women’s hoops / High School

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March Madness: Best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog picks and predictions

Beat the Sportsbook: Here are 3 best underdog picks and predictions for the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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We’re down to the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, and after the games Thursday and Friday, we’ll be left with just 8 teams standing in the battle the national championship. We’ll take a look at who the best underdogs are to target for the Sweet 16 slate.

Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list the best Sweet 16 underdog bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

The schedule for Friday features the best underdogs. In fact, don’t be surprised if that’s where we have our lower seeds advancing to the Elite 8. All 4 of the No. 1 seeds are still alive, but I am expecting that will change before the weekend.

Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:12 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

NC STATE +6.5 (-110) vs. Marquette – Friday, 7:09 p.m. (CBS)

The Wolfpack are the lowest remaining seed in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, the red-hot Wolfpack is the only double-digit seed left. And it wouldn’t be surprising to see 11th-seeded NC State advance to the Elite Eight, as it is playing with a lot of confidence.

The Wolfpack won 5 games in 5 days to claim the ACC Tournament championship, and NC State has carried over the momentum into the Big Dance. NC State won 80-67 as a 5-point underdog against No. 6 seed Texas Tech in the 1st round, and it topped No. 14 seed Oakland 79-73 in overtime in an epic battle between double-digit seeds vying for Cinderella’s slipper.

The Golden Eagles of Marquette roughed up Western Kentucky 87-69 in the 1st round and ousted Colorado 81-77 in the 2nd round, while the Buffaloes cashed as a 4.5-point underdog at most shops.

This is the 1st meeting since Dec. 5, 2009, when NC State won 77-73 as a 10-point underdog in Milwaukee. That isn’t terribly important, as Wolfpack start D.J. Burns was 9 years old at the time. The 300-pound big man put up 24 points and 11 rebounds against Oakland, and he has averaged 16.6 PPG during the team’s 7-game winning streak.

Marquette is just 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 3 games, and 4-4 ATS in the past 8 outings. The Golden Eagles could advance, similar to the Colorado game, but the Wolfpack should grab the cover as the underdog. They’re on fire.

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GONZAGA +5.5 (-110) vs. Purdue – Friday, 7:39 p.m. (TBS/truTV)

The Bulldogs were once considered a bubble team. There was a time Gonzaga’s streak of making the NCAA Tournament appeared in jeopardy, but the Bulldogs racked up 13 wins in 14 games to close the regular season, and it is now 3-1 SU/ATS in 4 games in the postseason. And just like that, Gonzaga went from bubble team, to the verge of the Elite 8.

The Boilermakers breezed past No. 16 seed Grambling 78-50 and blasted No. 9 Utah State 106-67. That’s a 33.5 PPG margin of victory in 2 NCAA Tournament games. Purdue has yet to really be tested, but you can expect all of that to change against the red-hot Bulldogs.

Purdue allowed teams to average 70.2 PPG, while allowing the opposition to hit 32.0% from behind the 3-point line. Gonzaga can more than hold its own on offense, going for 85.6 PPG, while hitting 51.9% from the field. If the Bulldogs can get their 3-pointers going, the Boilermakers could be in some trouble. Either way, this is a rather large spread, and Gonzaga is a live ‘dog.

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DUKE +3.5 (+100) vs. Houston – Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Blue Devils lost 3 times in a 6-game stretch from Feb. 24-March 14, bowing out in their 1st game of the ACC Tournament to the aforementioned Wolfpack.

The Cougars picked up a 100-95 win in overtime against Texas A&M in the 2nd round. Houston blew a double-digit lead against A&M in the final 2 minutes, and the Aggies nearly shoved the Cougars out the door. Houston committed 28 fouls, sending the Aggies to the line 45 times, with Texas A&M hitting just 29 times, or 64%. If Houston is that loose in the foul department against Duke, it might end a different way.

The key here will be Duke’s offense, which has averaged 80.2 PPG with 48.4% from the field, and 38.1% from behind the 3-point line, against Houston’s defense. The Cougars allow just 56.9 PPG, with a 38.3% defensive field-goal percentage, and 30.2% from behind the 3-point line.

The way UH looked against A&M, it appears ripe for the picking by a red-hot Duke offense, which is coming off a 93-55 win over James Madison, a 32-win team. Duke hit 50% (14 of 28) from behind the 3-point line, while turning it over just 6 times against JMU. If it plays like that against Houston, a No. 1 seed could be going home.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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3 Georgia Bulldogs crack Matt Miller’s updated top 50 NFL draft prospects

Matt Miller lists trio of Georgia Bulldogs among his top 50 NFL draft prospects…

With just over a month before the 2024 NFL draft, ESPN’s Matt Miller recently updated his list of the top-50 NFL draft prospects.

Three former Georgia Bulldogs made Miller’s list, including tight end Brock Bowers, offensive tackle Amarius Mims and wide receiver Ladd McConkey. Each are listed within the top 25.

Here’s where Miller considers the trio, along with an NFL player comparison and analysis.

10. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Height: 6-3 | Weight: 243
Comp: George Kittle

“The perfect tight end for the modern NFL game, Bowers has game-changing after-the-catch ability and has even lined up at tailback for the Bulldogs on occasion. In his three seasons of play, he had 26 touchdown catches (plus five more scores on the ground) while averaging 14.5 yards per reception. He’s a Kittle-like “move” tight end who can haul in passes on middle-of-the-field option routes. The rise of Kittle and Sam LaPorta as legitimate passing-game options and mismatch players is great for Bowers’ draft stock.” — Miller

24. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

Height: 6-8 | Weight: 340
Comp: Cam Robinson

“Mims is an eight-game starter at right tackle, but those eight starts and his traits as a pass-protector have NFL scouts very excited. Mims was sidelined with an ankle injury that required TightRope surgery midway through the 2023 season but returned for the final four games. The biggest hole in his game is experience, but Mims didn’t allow a sack at Georgia, and he had a blown run block rate of 1.2% over his three-year career.”

25. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

Height: 6-0 | Weight: 186
Comp: Tyler Boyd

“NFL teams looking for a savvy, experienced, productive slot receiver will fall in love with Georgia’s WR1. McConkey has powerful routes and awesome footwork while showing the toughness to run through contact and the speed to split the field vertically. He did battle through an ankle injury that held him to 30 catches and two touchdowns in 2023 — his least productive college season — but he’s as reliable as they come with a drop rate of 5% the past two years. McConkey’s fantastic showings at the Senior Bowl and the combine — where he ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash — answered any lingering questions about his ability.”

No program has sent as many players through the draft as Georgia has over the last three years (34). That number is expected to grow considerably this year with 13 Bulldogs aiming for a shot at the next level.

The 2024 NFL draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit.

Why Will Muschamp took reduced role on Georgia’s staff

Kirby Smart details Will Muschamp’s reasoning behind move to defensive analyst…

The Georgia Bulldogs’ sideline will look much differently this fall after multiple changes to the coaching staff this offseason.

The biggest difference will be on the defensive side of the ball. Formerly co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach, Will Muschamp has moved to defensive analyst, and Travaris Robinson has taken Muschamp’s role after coming over from Alabama.

We received some clarity on Muschamp’s move from head coach Kirby Smart last week as the Bulldogs continue spring practice.

“He spent a lot of time around young men in this profession, and he’s developed a lot of really good football players. He’s shaped a lot of boys into men. He’s got a lot of great relationships from the places he’s coached,” Smart said. “He spent a lot of time developing those kids, and he wants to be able to see his son. He wants to be able to watch his son develop and play. He got to see that firsthand with Jackson here who did a tremendous job for us. Every day coach Muschamp got to go on the practice field and be with his son.

Mushamp’s son, Jackson Muschamp, is set to graduate from UGA this spring. The walk-on quarterback had a poetic ending to his career in 2023, seeing his first collegiate action in Georgia’s Orange Bowl win versus Florida State.

Smart acknowledged that Will muschamp’s diminished role, in part, is due to his desire to be more involved with his younger son, Whit Muschamp, who is preparing for his freshman season at Vanderbilt.

“I can only imagine what that felt like for him and the satisfaction of seeing his son each day. Now he’s got Whit, who’s got an opportunity to go to Vanderbilt and play. He wants to be a factor in his life and be with him. That was a really easy transition. I thought he handled it very well. He communicated very well with me.”

The combination of Smart, Muschamp and co-defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann has one of the best, if not the best, defensive staffs in the sport. Smart knew he needed a hard hitter to take Muschamp’s place, and he found that in Robinson.

Robinson coached with Muschamp at Florida and South Carolina, bringing a similar mindset to Athens. He is also considered one of the best recruiters in college football.

“Our ability to hire T-Rob was tremendous. He’s got tons of value in our SEC footprint. Recruiting value, football knowledge, leader of men. Anywhere he’s coached, his players really, really trust him and enjoy him,” Smart said. “He’s been nothing but an asset for us in terms of knowledge but also in terms of relationships. We’ll get a great benefit from T-Rob coming, and we’ll get a huge benefit from coach Muschamp remaining part of our program to help us.”

Georgia will continue spring practice leading up to the annual G-Day scrimmage game on Saturday, April 13. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET, televised on SEC Network+.

Sunday’s best NCAA Tournament second-round upset and underdog picks and predictions

Beat the Sportsbook: Here are Sunday’s 2 best underdog bets for the second round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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The 1st-round games gave us more information on the teams that survived; some of that new data has likely been under- or overemphasized. Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Sunday’s best 2nd-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

It has been an eventful tournament to say the least with 8 double-digit seeds advancing to the 2nd round. Despite all the upsets, 14 of the top 16 seeds made it out of the 1st round. Nine of the top 10 teams in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll remain in the tournament. So, we’ve got a great mix of bluebloods and surprises remaining, let’s see if there are anymore upset scenarios coming on Sunday.

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Sunday’s NCAA Tournament underdog picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:12 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

Utah State +11.5 (-110) vs. Purdue – 2:40 p.m. (CBS)

ML: Utah State (+450)

Some might feel like the Mountain West Conference was disrespected by the selection committee with placements and seeding. Entering Sunday, the MWC is 3-4 in the tourney. The Big 12 was arguably the toughest conference in the nation and the 8th-seeded Aggies (26-6) made short work of the No. 9 seed TCU Horn Frogs 88-72 Friday. G Ian Martinez filled the stat sheet with 21 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal and a block in the win.

The top-seeded Boilermakers (30-4) will be a tall (literally) test Sunday, but Utah State is up to the challenge. The Aggies can spread the floor and drive the lane to possibly get Purdue 7-foot C Zach Edey into foul trouble. The Aggies’ balanced offense and tough defense are good enough to knock off Purdue and shock the world.

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JAMES MADISON +7.5 (+110) vs. Duke – 5:15 p.m. (CBS)

ML: James Madison (+250)

The Dukes (32-3) are one of only 6 teams in the country with 30 wins. Their 32nd victory came in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers (72-61). The 12th-seeded Dukes were led by Sun Belt Player of the Year Terrence Edwards Jr., who finished with 14 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 1 block. James Madison won 17 of its last 18 games, which includes a current 14-game win streak.

Duke (25-8) lost its last game of the regular season to North Carolina and fell in its first game of the ACC Tournament — in the quarterfinals — to eventual tourney champ NC State. Despite the disappointing end to the season, the Blue Devils earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tourney. There, they beat 13th-seeded Vermont 64-67, improving to 7-4 away from Cameron Indoor.

The last time a 12-seed reached the Sweet 16 was 2021 when Oregon State upset 5th-seeded Tennessee and 4th-seed Oklahoma before falling to No. 2 seed Houston in the Elite 8.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Saturday’s best NCAA Tournament second-round upset and underdog picks and predictions

Beat the Sportsbook: Here are Saturday’s 2 best underdog bets for the second round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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The 1st-round games gave us another data point on the teams that survived; some of that new information has likely been under- or overemphasized. Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Saturday’s best 2nd-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

The Tournament crisscrosses blueblood programs and teams that have been for months ranked in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll with small-conference champs and down-ballot fives perhaps trending the right way in March. Let’s lay out a couple plausible upset scenarios currently underplayed by the betting lines.

Can you survive? While the men’s contest is closed, there’s still time to enter the USA TODAY Sports’ Women’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool, which also has a $2,500 prize! Free to enter, 21+. Terms apply, void where prohibited by law. See Official Rules. Play now!

Saturday’s NCAA Tournament underdog picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:22 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

MICHIGAN STATE +4.5 (-120) vs. North Carolina – 5:30 p.m. (CBS)

Michigan State (20-14) is the No. 9 seed in the West Region; North Carolina (28-7) is the No. 1. So, why do the books lay this one out so close? The line was 3.5 most of Friday and moved to 4.5 early Saturday

The Spartans advanced through the 1st round on a 69-51 triumph — as 1.5-point favorites — over Mississippi State Thursday. Michigan State went 10-for-23 (43.5%) from distance and had 3 players score in double figures. The win against the number marked Michigan’s State’s 3rd cover a row.

The Tar Heels are ranked 5th in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, and they backed that up accordingly with a 90-62 rout of Wagner Thursday. UNC covered the spread as a 25.5-point favorite, is 9-1 straight up (SU) over its last 10 games and has scored 90-plus in 3 of those contests.

But this is a clash of pace — with fast UNC and slow MSU — and the Spartans have gone 8-4 against the spread (ATS) when facing teams averaging 77 or more points per game. Against the 3 fastest teams in the Big Ten (Illinois, Iowa, Penn State) Michigan State went 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS.

MSU is back in the same barn that saw them shoot well from distance Thursday, and UNC has trended the wrong way in perimeter defense of late.

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TEXAS +6.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee – 8 p.m. (CBS)

The Longhorns (21-12) and Volunteers (25-8) will tussle in a Midwest Region 2nd-round game in Charlotte, and there is a decent amount of fade ammo to spread around to both sides here. Both had early exits in their respective conference tournaments and have analytic multi-game trend lines headed the wrong direction.

No. 7-seed Texas did cover a 3-point spread in a low-scoring 56-44, first-round contest against Colorado State Thursday. No. 2-seed Tennessee — the 6th-ranked team in the nation — routed Saint Peter’s 83-49 in its 1st-rounder. UT snapped a 2-game ATS losing streak, covering a 22-point spread against the Peacocks.

The Vols have 3 neutral-floor losses this season, and Tennessee’s defense has slipped a notch or 2 late of late. The Longhorns did not have a good offensive game Thursday, but they had looked improved at that end in other late-season games.

Expect a closer game than what the spread lays out.

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March Madness: Second-round strategy for the $2.5K USA TODAY’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool

Win $2.5K in the NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool: Second-round picks and predictions

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The NCAA Tournament 1st round is in the rear-view mirror, and there was a nice share of madness. In fact, over 5,000 entries in USA TODAY’s NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool were eliminated in the first 2 days.

Major upsets of No. 3 seed Kentucky (by 14th-seeded Oakland) and 4th-seeded Auburn (by 13th-seeded Yale) knocked out a bunch of those entries. Losses by 5th-seeded Saint Mary’s (to 12th-seeded Grand Canyon) and 5th-seeded Wisconsin (to No. 12 seed James Madison) also bumped many to the exits.

After the opening round, I learned a hard lesson. Don’t trust the SEC, at least this season.

I was bitten by G Jermaine Couisnard (40 points) and his 11th-seeded Oregon Ducks, who rolled past the 6th-seed South Carolina Gamecocks, who just never were able to get on track in their 1st-round Midwest Region game.

The 4th-seed Auburn Tigers were up 10 points against a Yale team which needed a buzzer beater to top a sub-.500 Brown team in the Ivy League Championship Game. However, it was the Bulldogs who showed championship mettle, sending coach Bruce Pearl and his Tigers packing.

At least Gonzaga was able to come through with flying colors, but in Survivor, 1-for-3 is simply not going to do.

As an employee, I’m not eligible to win this contest, but I’m in the “Loser’s Lounge,” anyway. However, I can still assist those of you who have a shot at the $2.5K first prize — but I’d understand if you don’t want my advice.

After Day 2 (Friday), 3,290 entries remain out of the 7,803 who signed up.

So, here’s my strategy of how to advance out of Round 2 and eventually win the Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool.

A rules reminder: Remaining entries are required to pick 2 teams to win outright in the 2nd round — no spread involved. Once you pick a team, it can’t be used again, similar to an NFL survivor pool.

After the 2nd round, the rules require 1 pick per round — 1 in the Sweet 16, 1 in the Elite 8, 1 in the Final Four and then picking the winner of the National Championship Game — if you still have an eligible team to select.

Along with not being able to choose the same team twice, the other tricky rule is that points are earned equal to your winning teams’ seeds. At this point, there are still a lot of points available in the 2nd round and beyond.

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Second-round picks

PICK 1: NC STATE WOLFPACK (23-14)

Who they play: Oakland Grizzlies (24-11)

When: Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS, truTV)

Where: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

We get a bonus here. The 14th-seeded Grizzlies, who showed the Kentucky Wildcats the door, meet the No. 11 seed Wolfpack. If you pick one of these 2, you’re going to get a lot of points if either win.

Oakland was bombs away against Kentucky, hitting 15 of 31 (48.4%) from downtown in its upset win. More important, the Golden Grizzlies turned it over just 7 times.

The Golden Grizzlies run into a white-hot Wolfpack team which won 5 games in 5 days at the ACC Tournament, and remained hot against Texas Tech in the opening round of this NCAA Tourney. NC State defeated Tech 80-67 Thursday, shooting 50.9% (27 of 53) from the floor, while doing hitting 810.8% from the free-throw line (21 of 26). Like Oakland, NC State took good care of the ball, too, turning it over just 10 times.

NC State had 4 players score 16 or more points, dominating the Red Raiders despite the fact G Casey Morsell struggled by hitting just 2 of 8 FG attempts and finished with 8 points.

The Wolfpack look like a sweet pick to make the Sweet 16.

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PICK 2: SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (25-10)

Who they play: Yale Bulldogs (23-9)

When: Sunday, 9:40 p.m. ET (TBS)

Where: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, Spokane, Wash.

The Bulldogs beat one of my 1st-round picks, erasing a 10-point deficit to sneak by Auburn by 2 points. Now, the Ivy League entrant draws last season’s national runners-up.

Fifth-seeded San Diego State held off a late charge from No. 12 seed UAB of the American Athletic Conference, winning 69-65. It was a typical Aztecs game, as they struggled from the field, hitting 43.6% (24 of 55), including just 27.8% (5 of 18) from behind the 3-point line. The Aztecs turned it over 13 times, and were just plus-2 in the rebounding department. However, San Diego State used suffocating defense to hold down UAB.

The Aztecs don’t get style points … and they don’t care. They grind out wins, relying upon defense to frustrate the opposition. They will do just that against Yale to get back to the Sweet 16.

Good luck and make sure to check back before the Sweet 16 for the next winning pick!

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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March Madness: Friday’s best first-round underdog picks and predictions

Beat the Sportsbook: Here’s Friday’s 3 best underdog bets for the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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Being a proud alum of George Mason University, I know a thing or two about a Cinderella story. “By George, the dream is alive” are words that echo through my mind every year during this tournament.

Did you forget about 2022 when 15-seed Saint Peter’s went on an amazing run to the Elite 8. They took down 2-seed Kentucky, 7-seed Murray State and 3-seed Purdue before finally falling to the 8th-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels.

There will be upsets during this tournament, but when will they happen? That’s the question on everyone’s mind and what I aim to uncover here.

Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s (OR FanDuel Sportsbook’s) NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Friday’s best 1st-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

Can you survive? USA TODAY Sports’ Men and Women’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pools are here with a $2,500 prize for each contest! Free to enter, 21+. Terms apply, void where prohibited by law. See Official Rules. Play now!

NCAA Tournament best Friday first-round underdog picks

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:03 p.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

JAMES MADISON (+176) vs. Wisconsin – 9:40 p.m.

The Dukes are one of only 4 teams in the country to win 30 games this season. Their 31st victory came in the Sun Belt Tournament title game, 91-71 over Arkansas State. They are led by Sun Belt player of the year Terrence Edwards Jr., who averaged 17.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. James Madison won 16 of their last 17 games, which includes a current 13 game win streak.

Wisconsin limped to the finish of the regular season, losing 3 of their last 4 games before making a run to the Big Ten Tournament title game. The Badgers were 3-9 away from Madison this season.

In the past 40 years, there have been 53 No. 12 over No. 5 seed upsets. This is crazy to think about, we’ve had as many years without a 12-over-5 upset as we’ve had 3 12-over-5 upsets in the tournament.

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UAB (+240) vs. San Diego State – 1:45 p.m.

The Blazers won their final 5 games including 3 in the American Athletic Conference Tournament to earn their ticket to the Big Dance. UAB beat Wichita State, South Florida and then Temple in the title game 85-69. They are led by 1st-team All AAC player Yaxel Lendeborg, who averaged 13.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.1 blocks per game. UAB is one of the nation’s best at drawing fouls and making free throws. They were 2-1 against Top 25 teams this season.

San Diego State was inconsistent down the stretch, going 4-4 over their final 8 games of the regular season. This team is known for playing tough defensively which could get them into foul trouble in this matchup. They are one of the best teams in the country at guarding the 3, but UAB is not known for their outside shooting. The Aztecs offense can be inconsistent which can be a problem in this tournament.

I already gave you all the stats on why we love a 12-over-5 seed in this tournament.

Stream select live college basketball games and full replays: Get ESPN+

UTAH STATE (+146) vs. TCU – 9:55 p.m.

Utah State had won 7 straight games before falling in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament 86-70 to San Diego State. First-team All Mountain West player Great Osobor averaged 18 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists and shot nearly 60% from the field. He should have his way on the interior against a TCU defense which struggles in the paint. The Aggies were 2-0 against teams in the Top 25 this season.

The Horned Frogs lost 3 of their last 4 games of the regular season before falling in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament 60-45 to Houston.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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March Madness: How to win $2.5K in USA TODAY’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool

Let the March Madness begin. College hoops expert Kevin Erickson is here to help you win the $2.5K NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool.

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The 2024 NCAA Tournament is here, and Field of 64 begins to pare down to 32 teams Thursday into Friday at 8 different venues across the country. The madness is here, and it’s time to make some money as we move closer to crowning a champion.

You might have already filled out your brackets, but USA TODAY has another unique NCAA Tournament contest in which you can win $2,500.

As an employee, I’m not eligible to win, but there’s no rule against me helping you win $2.5K.

Here is my strategy of how to win the Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool.

Each round, you’ll pick a set number of teams. For the 1st round, you have to pick 3 teams to simply win their games — no spread involved. If one of your teams loses, you’re eliminated. However, once you select a team, similar to an NFL survivor pool, you can’t use that team again.

In the 2nd round, you must pick 2 teams to win outright. After that, you have to pick 1 team per round — in the Sweet 16, the Elite 8, the Final Four and the championship game.

Another tricky rule is that you earn points based on the seed number of your winning team. Successfully pick a No. 12 seed to knock off a 5 seed, and you get 12 points. Pick a No. 1 seed and you only get 1 point if it wins.

Starting with the 1st round, I’m not going to worry about points. My goal is to survive and advance. There are often too many upsets and I’m not going to take that risk of getting knocked out on Day 1.

Let’s treat this as a short marathon, not a 60-yard dash. We’ll earn our points in the later rounds.

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First-round picks

PICK 1: SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (26-7)

Who they play: Oregon Ducks (23-11)

When: Thursday, 4 p.m. ET (TNT)

Where: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

The 6th-seeded Gamecocks are a battle-tested bunch, rattling off 6 Q1 wins this season, including victories over top-10 teams Kentucky and Tennessee.

South Carolina never really had a bad loss this season, and it uses a combination of methodical, careful offense and lockdown defense to get the job done. If the Gamecocks have an Achilles’ heel, it’s guarding against the 3-pointer, allowing teams to hit at a 33.4% clip in the regular season.

However, the 11th-seed Ducks were super inconsistent. While Oregon caught fire in the Pac-12 Tournament, topping UCLA, Arizona and Colorado, it actually had a losing record in its final 15 regular-season games, going 7-8 straight up (SU).

Oregon isn’t a very good 3-point shooting team, hitting at just a 34.7% clip, so it won’t be able to take advantage of South Carolina’s soft spot. Plus, the Ducks are horrific on defense, especially in the interior, allowing opponents to hit 45.7% from the field, and 35.1% from behind the 3-point line.

THE BRACKETS ARE BACK! The USA TODAY Sports Bracket Challenge is back! $1 MILLION grand prize for a perfect bracket, $25,000 prize for top bracket. Free to enter, 21+. Terms apply, void where prohibited by law. See Official Rules. Play now!

PICK 2: GONZAGA BULLDOGS (25-7)

Who they play: McNeese Cowboys (30-3)

When: Thursday, 7:25 p.m. ET (TBS)

Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City

Traditionally, a 12 vs. 5 matchup in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament has been the sexy pick for an upset by amateur bracket players.

This season, 12th-seeded McNeese has been the team a lot of people have been touting as the upset special, even though most fans haven’t even seen the Cowboys play and are just taking the word of a lot of talking heads.

No offense to the Cowboys, who won 30 games, but they had a single Quad 1 game, beating VCU in the opener way back on Nov. 6. They did beat UAB on the road for a Q2 win, while also topping Michigan, the worst team in the Big Ten. Other than that, it’s hard to figure what exactly people are seeing about McNeese.

Gonzaga was having some issues around the holidays, falling in marquee games against UConn and San Diego State. This Zags just weren’t hitting on all cylinders. But they topped Kentucky, they topped Saint Mary’s, and they got their act together down the stretch.

Remember, this contest doesn’t require our picks to cover the spread. We simply just need Gonzaga to advance, and the Zags will do just that in their NCAA opener.

Stream select live college basketball games and full replays: Get ESPN+

PICK 3: AUBURN TIGERS (27-7)

Who they play: Yale (22-9)

When: Friday, 4:15 p.m. ET (TNT)

Where: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, Spokane, Wash.

The 4th-seeded Tigers won the SEC Tournament, picking up a 31-point win (86-55) over South Carolina, a 7-point win (73-66) over Mississippi State, and a 19-point win (86-67) over Florida in the title game. All 3 victories came against NCAA Tournament teams, and all 3 wins were impressive. The Tigers are a team on an absolute roll.

The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are playing with house money. If you watched the Ivy League Championship Game, you know Brown lost; Yale didn’t win it. Well, it did, with a last-second shot, but it should never have come to that. Brown had a chance to ice it, or at least make things extremely difficult, but missed free throws, turnovers and bad defense turned an NCAA Tournament bid into a title game loss. Yale hit a buzzer beater in the paint, and that’s why it is here.

It would be unfair to say Yale has no shot, because then why play the games? Last season’s NCAA Tournament should serve as a cautionary tale that anything can truly happen. But the Ivy League representative is smallish, and it will be going up against a Tigers team playing with a ton of confidence.

All right. Let’s get these 3 wins, rack up a few points and then make sure to check back before Round 2 for our next winning picks. Play now!

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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March Madness: Best NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks and predictions

Beat the Sportsbook: Here’s 4 best underdog picks and predictions for the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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The best part about the NCAA Tournament is upsets, unless, of course, you’re betting the favorites. We’ll take a look at several underdogs who are a good bet to play straight up.

Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list the best 1st-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

It’s always interesting when a lower seed is favored. That’s not what we mean by upsets. We’ll pick several teams who are underdogs by more than a few points, who are good plays to cover a big number or just win straight up.

Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9:41 p.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

NC STATE ML (+190) vs. Texas Tech – Thursday, 9:40 p.m.

The Wolfpack are the only team to win 5 games in 5 days to claim the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament championship. It’s an impressive feat, but the Wolfpack isn’t likely done.

NC State enters the NCAA Tournament with a lot of confidence after that amazing run, and it is actually the longest winning streak for the Wolfpack this season. And it’s the 1st time NC State has won more than 2 games in a row against Power 6 teams.

Texas Tech has sunk like a stone since the end of January. The Red Raiders lost at TCU on Jan. 30, and they’re actually 6-7 straight up (SU) in the past 13 games. While only 1 of those losses came against a non-NCAA Tournament team, it’s a rather frequent occurrence.

The Red Raiders are just 6-9 in Quad 1 games, while the Wolfpack was just 3-8 in Q1 contests.

If you’re a little more on the conservative side, NC STATE +5.5 (-115) still isn’t a bad play, if you can’t go all the way on the moneyline.

SAINT PETER’S +21.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee – Thursday, 9:20 p.m.

The Peacocks made a miraculous run to the Elite Eight in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. That team, led by the mustachioed Doug Edert, coach Shaheen Holloway, etc. broke up prior to the 2023 season. Edert transferred to Bryant, Holloway took the Seton Hall job, taking KC Ndefo with him, and Daryl Banks III went to St. Bonaventure.

In other words, those casual fans who see Saint Peter’s, they should know this is a completely different group.

The Volunteers are a No. 2 seed, and they’re fully expected to advance. However, this is an awfully big number for a team coming off 2 consecutive losses. The Vols lost a marquee battle to Kentucky in the regular-season finale on March 9 at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, 85-81 as an 8.5-point favorite, and then it was throttled 73-56 by Mississippi State in its 1st game in the SEC Tournament.

Tennessee has sharp-shooter Dalton Knecht, who was just 4-of-17 from the field for 14 points in the loss to Hail State. He’ll be looking to dent a Peacocks defense which ranked just 161st in the country, according to covers.com, in 3-pointer defense.

Saint Peter’s allowed teams to shoot 33.3% from behind the arc, and the Peacocks really had a difficult time scoring, going for just 65.9 PPG, one of the lowest totals in the country, while hitting just 39.7% from the field. Still, this is an awfully big number.

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WESTERN KENTUCKY +14.5 (-110) vs. Marquette – Friday, 2 p.m.

The Hilltoppers caught fire in the Conference USA Tournament, roughing up New Mexico State by 20, and belting Middle Tennessee by 31, before easing by UTEP 78-71 in the championship game. Western Kentucky covered all 3 games in the C-USA tourney, it has covered 4 in a row, and the ‘Toppers are 9-3 ATS across the past 12 outings.

The Golden Eagles are a No. 2 seed, but they’re a team which is playing .500 ball across the past 6 games, going 3-3 SU and ATS. Of course, the losses are against Creighton, a No. 3 seed in this tournament, and twice to top overall seed UConn.

The big concern with Marquette is the health of F Oso Ighodaro, who carries a questionable tag due to a knee injury, as well as G Tyler Kolek. The latter suffered an oblique injury Feb. 28 against Providence, and he has been sidelined for the past 6 games. He is listed as probable, so he is expected to face Western Kentucky, but will there be some rust? It’s likely.

As far as Ighodaro is concerned, he banged up his left knee, and missed the final 7 games of the Big East title game loss. And G Stevie Mitchell is also nursing a tender left shoulder injury, so Marquette enters this game banged up. That’s good news for Western Kentucky, and its backers.

JAMES MADISON +5.5 (-110) vs. Wisconsin – Friday, 9:40 p.m.

The Dukes got their season off to a great start with an upset over another Big Ten team, Michigan State. James Madison won 79-76 in overtime in East Lansing on Nov. 6, and it was the first of 28 victories against just 3 losses.

Wisconsin tasted defeat 13 times, and it was really in danger of missing this NCAA Tournament all together before stringing together 3 straight wins in the Big Ten Tournament, including a victory over No. 1 seed Purdue, to get its resume in order. The Badgers went all the way to the title game, falling to Illinois 93-87 on Sunday in a thriller.

This is a tough draw for Wisconsin, though. JMU averages 84.6 PPG, and it shoots at a blistering 47.6% from the field. If there is an Achilles’ heel, it’s free-throw shooting, as the Dukes are a dismal 71.1% from the stripe, leaving some points on the floor. And defensively, James Madison allows teams to hit just 28.8% from behind the arc, and that was 5th in the nation defensively.

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