Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson lived up to his draft position in Week 1 of the 2019 season, producing 131 receiving yards, 21.8 yards per catch, and one touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals — record numbers for a debut at the position.
Fantasy owners and Lions fans were thrilled with this performance in his first game in the league. Then the rest of the season happened.
Hockenson’s usage was minimal the rest of the year, struggling with drops in the end zone, and multiple injuries that took him off the field. Overall most would call his rookie year disappointing but I am still filled with upside and promise for the future.
Today we will look at the Lions’ prized tight end’s fantasy value and projections headed into the 2020 season.
Re-draft leagues
Often in re-draft leagues, I like to wait on drafting tight ends, letting others grab big names like Travis Kelce (Chiefs) or George Kittle (49ers) in the early rounds, while I keep my focus on running backs and wide receivers early.
Hockenson is a great target if you choose to wait. He’s the clear top option on the Lions at tight end with only minimal competition behind him for snaps and when utilized can score like a top tier player.
Consensus Rankings via Fantasy Pros:
- Best TE: 9th
- Worst TE: 26th
- Overall: 130th overall and the 14th tight end drafted
Best ball leagues
In best ball leagues, you can also wait until very late to draft Hockenson — but I’d pass on him in this format as he just isn’t going to have enough monster games on a weekly basis to justify it.
He will have good weeks, but not enough huge stat lines to make him a top best ball tight end player. In these leagues, I’d rather have that second or third tier of players at the position such as Evan Engram (Giants), Hunter Henry (Chargers), or Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers).
Consensus Rankings via Fantasy Pros:
- Best: 119th overall
- Worst: 128th overall
- Overall: 123rd overall and the 16th tight end drafted
Dynasty leagues
Here is where you want the Lions tight end as Hockenson is only 22-years-old and has the skills to be a top-five player at his position for years to come.
I see him being a potential center point of the Lions’ offense as soon as this year, but definitely in 2021 and beyond. His ability to win in the red-zone — something he showed off during last year’s training camp — and find success running after the catch will be very appealing.
Consensus Rankings via Fantasy Pros:
- Best TE: 5th
- Worst TE: 22nd
- Overall TE: 9th
Statistical projection and analysis
My personal 2020 projections for Hockenson are:
- 50 catches
- 600 yards receiving
- Eight touchdowns
Those projections are similar to what you find on other fantasy football websites, but I’m projecting him for quite a few more touchdowns than others have him getting this season. I think he needs to take a big step forward this year and stay healthy to prove his worth to all his doubters.
A few years ago tight ends were hard to find in fantasy football, but now it seems most teams have one and sometimes two options at the position. Hockenson can be dynamic, but will he get the ball enough in this Lions offense? We will have to wait and see.
For now, he’s a mid-level player with youth and potential on his side with the opportunity to enter elite level player status in the future if he maximizes his skills.
Currently, you can still get him late enough in drafts to create value, which is always a good thing. I am projecting a solid season, but nothing dynamic until 2021 and beyond, which is when I can see his fantasy value possibly skyrocketing to premier player status at the tight end position.