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Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Detroit Tigers (37-52) and Cleveland Guardians (43-44) kick off a 4-game set Thursday at Progressive Field in Cleveland. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tigers lead series 7-2

After a season-high 6-game win streak — which included a 4-game sweep of the Guardians at Comerica Park — the Tigers are 1-5 across their last 6 outings.

The Guardians limp in with just 4 wins in the past 14 games, slipping under .500. Cleveland has won just 3 of its last 11 games inside the AL Central.

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Tigers at Guardians projected starters

RHP Elvin Rodriguez vs. RHP Triston McKenzie

Rodriguez (0-2, 11.51 ERA) makes his 5th start and 6th appearance. He has a 1.82 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 20 1/3 IP.

  • Is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA and .375 opponent batting average in 9 1/3 IP in 2 road starts.
  • Worked 4 scoreless IP with 2 H, 0 BB and 4 K in a no-decision May 29 against the Guardians at Comerica Park.

McKenzie (6-6, 3.47 ERA) has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 93 1/3 IP across 15 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Has managed a 2-1 record, 3.68 ERA and .185 opponent BA with 30 K across 29 1/3 IP in 5 starts at Progressive Field.
  • Suffered a hard-luck loss at Detroit May 29 with 2 ER, 4 H and 1 BB with 8 K in 7 2/3 IP.

Tigers at Guardians odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Tigers +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Guardians -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-110) | Guardians -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Tigers 2

Money line

The Guardians (-240) will cost you nearly two and a half times your potential return. That’s just too risky, especially against a Tigers team that has won 7 of 9 in the season series.

PASS, and look to the run line instead.

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Run line/Against the spread

The GUARDIANS -1.5 (-110) are a much better play on the run line, as Cleveland looks to snap on track. McKenzie has been throwing peas, recording tons of strikeouts in the process, and Cleveland has the edge here going against the unproven Rodriguez in this make-up game from May 21.

Over/Under

The UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the way to go here.

The Under is 4-2 across the past 6 games for the Tigers and 5-3-1 in 9 games against the Guardians this season.

The Under went 3-1 for Cleveland in the 4-game set with the White Sox, and the Under is 9-4 across the past 13 games overall.

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Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Detroit Tigers (13-25) head to Progressive Field Friday to start a 3-game series with the American League Central co-tenant Cleveland Guardians (16-19). First pitch is 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Detroit lost back-to-back games at the Tampa Bay Rays to lose its 3-game set following a 4-game win streak and is 5-5 overall in its last 10 games. Cleveland is on a 3-game losing skid and is just 4-6 overall in its last 10 outings.

The Guardians beat the Tigers 12-7 in last year’s season series and outscored them 37 runs in those meetings.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs. RHP Aaron Civale

Skubal is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 39 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 5-1, at home vs. the Baltimore Orioles with 6-scoreless IP, 3 H, 2 BB and 11 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Guardians: 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 15 H, 6 BB and 16 K.
  • vs. Guardians on the current roster: 2.33 FIP with a .239/.281/.309 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 24.4 K% and 90.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 41 plate appearances (PA).

Civale is 1-3 with a 9.85 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 24 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 12-8, at the Minnesota Twins Friday with 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Tigers: 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.66 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 in 3 starts.
  • vs. Tigers on the current roster: 3.34 FIP with a .260/.310/.412 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 16.3 K% and 83.4 mph EV in 86 PA.

Tigers at Guardians odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+160) | Guardians +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 7, Guardians 2

Money line

GIMME the TIGERS (+100) because they have a clear edge over the Guardians in pitching.

Skubal’s FIP is better than his ERA, which suggests he’ll continue to deal, and he grades in the 80th percentile or better in xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line and four of his five pitches have a minus-run value, per Statcast.

Whereas Civale is in the bottom quarter of the MLB in xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, hard-hit rate and EV. Cleveland’s 6-5 overall record vs. left-handed starters is misleading because none of those victories were against “top-of-the-rotation” starters and Skubal has an All-Star-caliber form.

Detroit’s bullpen ranks ahead of Cleveland’s in WAR, FIP, ERA, WHIP and home runs allowed per 9-inning rate, according to FanGraphs.

BET 1 unit on the TIGERS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the TIGERS -1.5 (+160), if at all, because this is Detroit’s first game as a road favorite and the Guardians are 6-4 RL as home underdogs.

However, Civale has been dreadful this season — all 3 of his losses were by at least 4 runs — and Cleveland’s bullpen is mediocre this season.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-125) because Cleveland is 6-0 O/U in Civale’s 6 starts and the weather conditions are hitter-friendly. The forecast is predicting temperatures in the mid-to-high-80s and a 20-plus mph wind blowing out to centerfield.

However, it’s only a LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-125) because Skubal is an Ace and Detroit’s lineup is 29th in both wRC+ (79) and wOBA (.273) and dead-last in BB/K rate (0.31), per FanGraphs.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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