Tag: tiebreaker

Week 11 Rooting Guide: Eyes on the prize, who can help Cowboys’ draft slot

We enter Week 11 with the Cowboys rested and somewhat healthier than in recent times. That’s a misleading phrase, of course, because Dallas has so many season-ending injuries, being healthier is a relative term. Dak Prescott, La’el Collins or Tyron …

We enter Week 11 with the Cowboys rested and somewhat healthier than in recent times. That’s a misleading phrase, of course, because Dallas has so many season-ending injuries, being healthier is a relative term. Dak Prescott, La’el Collins or Tyron Smith aren’t walking through that door again this season, and the club did recently lose starting rookies Tyler Biadasz and Trevon Diggs for a stretch.

However, the now-starting QB Andy Dalton is recovered from his bout with COVID-19 and a concussion, the now-starting LT Brandon Knight is back as well. Also returning, CB Chidobe Awuzie after being gone since Week 2 with a serious hamstring injury. He’s joined by journeyman corner Rashard Robinson who was on PSIR and has been activated and elevated for the game against Minnesota on Sunday. DT Tyrone Crawford is back off a short stint on the COVID IR (exposure, not a positive test). In the grand scheme of things, all documented in our roster guide here, make any difference to the Cowboys dual pursuit of a playoff spot and a top draft pick in 2021?

The Cowboys simultaneously can win the NFC East title yet are still competing for a high slot thanks to their 2-7 record and the division leader sitting at 3-5-1. Recently, the team slid down to the No. 4 overall pick thanks to Washington failing to finish their comeback against the Detroit Lions in Week 10. The Football Team now has a slightly worse Strength of Schedule, which is the tiebreaker in draft pick determination.

With the two teams matching up this coming Thursday for Thanksgiving, it will be a huge matchup, especially considering WFT needs a QB, and the more QB-needy teams the Cowboys finish slotted above, the more likely they can command a bounty in a trade-down scenario.

So here’s a look at the Week 11 schedule, and which games will impact the Cowboys’ pursuit in both directions.

Rockets tiebreaker FAQ: Where Houston stands vs. West rivals

With five regular-season games left to play, the Rockets could still finish anywhere from No. 2 to No. 7 in the Western Conference.

Entering Wednesday, with five games left to play in the NBA’s 2019-20 regular season, the Houston Rockets could still finish anywhere from No. 2 to No. 7 in the tightly packed Western Conference standings.

The Rockets (42-25) have already clinched their spot in the 2020 NBA playoffs, which will begin around August 17. But as far as postseason seeding and matchups, much remains undecided heading into the final five games. (As a reminder, all 22 teams invited to the league’s restart at Disney World are playing eight regular-season contests.)

Houston cannot finish in a tie with Dallas (41-29) or Denver (44-23) due to uneven schedules, with both having played more games than the Rockets at the time of the season’s COVID-19 hiatus in March. In cases where games are not even, the NBA is deferring to winning percentage to determine placement in the standings.

Even with unbalanced schedules, both the Mavs and Nuggets still figure heavily into tiebreaker math for the Rockets, considering the role of division winners in those procedures. In ties involving three or more teams, the initial criteria is that a division winner wins a tie over a non-division winner. In two-team ties, it’s second after head-to-head results.

Division Importance

Based on the importance of a division championship, the Rockets can generally be expected to fare well in most ties.

Here’s why: With five games left, the Rockets lead Dallas by 2.5 games in the Southwest Division. The only way Houston doesn’t win the division is if the Mavericks outplay them by at least three games over the final five, i.e. the Rockets finish 1-4, while Dallas goes 4-1. This is why Houston’s comeback win over the Mavs last Friday was so critical.

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Should the Rockets collapse down the stretch, it would almost assuredly mean that a three-way tie isn’t possible, anyway. For example, the Rockets are currently tied in the loss column with Utah (42-25) and Oklahoma City (41-25). The only way Houston doesn’t win its division is if it loses at least three of the final five games — and if that’s the case, it’s hard to envision both the Jazz and Thunder doing the same.

The Jazz, Thunder, and Los Angeles Clippers (45-22) are all teams that can finish in a tie with the Rockets, since 72 regular-season games will be the final total for each of them. Assuming Houston holds off Dallas, here’s a look at the various potential scenarios that could be at play.

Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder

If Houston ends up in a two-team tie with the Jazz or Thunder, the math is simple. The Rockets would win it against Utah by virtue of winning two out of the three games this season. Houston would lose a tie versus Oklahoma City, since the Thunder took two of three from the Rockets.

But what happens if all three end up tied? That’s where it gets complicated. At the moment, should all three teams win out (remember, they all have 25 losses), that’s exactly what would happen.

If the division standings stay as they are today — with Houston holding off Dallas for the Southwest, and Denver topping Utah and Oklahoma City in the Northwest — the result would be the Rockets at No. 4, Thunder at No. 5, and Jazz at No. 6. The first-round playoff series in that scenario would be No. 4 Houston versus No. 5 Oklahoma City, and No. 6 Utah against the No. 3 seed (most likely Denver, but possibly the Clippers).

Projecting by current division standings, Houston is the only champion among the trio. As a result, the Rockets would earn the top spot in that group. From there, the second spot would be determined by head-to-head results, and Oklahoma City beat Utah two of three times.

There is one potential curveball. The Nuggets currently have several injuries to rotation players, and their division lead is less than three games. What happens if they struggle down the stretch, and either the Jazz or Thunder emerge as the winner of the Northwest Division?

If Utah wins the Northwest, then Houston still finishes first in a three-way tie involving the Jazz and Thunder. The Thunder would be immediately culled due to not winning its division, and then the Rockets would top the Jazz based on head-to-head. If Oklahoma City were to win the Northwest, the ordering would be Thunder-Rockets-Jazz, since both the Thunder and Rockets would be division winners, but Oklahoma City would have the two-team advantage due to head-to-head results.

In short, the Rockets cannot finish third in a three-team tiebreaker with the Jazz and Thunder. They would probably finish first, though there is a remote scenario — if Denver collapses and Oklahoma City surges — where they could finish second among those three teams.

Finally, it’s also worth noting that there’s not much difference between being the No. 4 seed or the No. 5, since both are on the same side of the playoff bracket (the NBA does not re-seed after each round), and there is no apparent home-court advantage at the Florida “bubble.”

However, there is a big gap between No. 5 and No. 6, or No. 3 and No. 4, since those would draw distinct first-round opponents and be on different sides of the bracket. The winner of the 4-5 matchup would be slotted to face the No. 1 Lakers in the second round, while the 3-6 winner would be on the side of the No. 2 seed — probably the Clippers.

Los Angeles Clippers

After Tuesday’s loss to Portland, it appears unlikely that the Rockets could make up their three-game deficit to Los Angeles with only five left. Even if the Rockets finished at 5-0, the Clippers would have to go 2-3 or worse in order for Houston to pass them.

That said, it is mathematically possible. And if somehow it occurred, the Rockets would almost certainly have the tiebreaker.

The crosstown rival Lakers have already won the Northwest, so the Clippers cannot be a division winner. And in four head-to-head meetings this season, the Rockets and Clippers split with two wins apiece.

Thus, the two-team tiebreaker would be determined by division status, with Houston holding a trump card as the Southwest champion. Should it be a tie involving three or more teams, the Rockets would also top the Clippers in the initial tiebreaker step as a division winner.

Houston does not play Wednesday, which could make for a fun day of scoreboard watching as we start to learn which of the various playoff scenarios are most likely to take hold. Regarding teams of note to the Rockets, Utah plays Memphis at 1:30 Central; Denver faces San Antonio at 3:00 p.m.; and Oklahoma City plays the Lakers at 5:30 p.m.

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Tiebreaker update: Where Rockets stand vs. West playoff rivals

Here’s where the Rockets stand with potential tiebreakers against the five West teams they’re competing for playoff seeding with.

With Thursday’s game versus the Los Angeles Clippers now in the rear-view mirror, the Houston Rockets (39-22) have completed play against all but one of the five Western Conference teams that they’re competing with for seeding in the upcoming 2020 NBA playoffs.

Entering Saturday, the Rockets trailed the top-seeded Lakers in the loss column by nine games, and they were 10 games ahead of No. 8 Memphis for the final playoff spot. Thus, rising or falling to one of those spots is very unlikely, with only 21 games left in the 2019-20 regular season.

However, anywhere between No. 2 and No. 7 is quite reasonable. The current No. 2 is the Clippers, who the Rockets trail by three games in the loss column, while the No. 7 is Dallas — who they lead by three. With six teams in such tight proximity, ties after 82 games are quite possible.

Of the five teams they’re competing with, the Rockets have secured the two-team tiebreaker over Utah (22 losses) by winning the season series, while they would lose the tiebreaker to Oklahoma City (24 losses).

Houston (22 losses) split the season series with Denver (20 losses) and the Clippers (19 losses) at two games apiece, and they’re also tied with the Mavericks (25 losses) at one game each — though they still have two meetings left on March 23 and April 7, both in Dallas.

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The biggest key for the Rockets is holding off the Mavs, because what happens relative to Dallas also poses the potential to impact how any ties between Houston and the Clippers and/or Nuggets would be broken.

In two-team ties, the second tiebreaker after head-to-head results is whether a team won its division. In three-team ties, division status represents the first tiebreaker. The Clippers almost certainly won’t win the Pacific, since they trail the Lakers by six games in the loss column.

Thus, if Houston holds off Dallas in the Southwest, they would almost assuredly earn the tiebreaker against the Clippers.

The Nuggets do currently lead the Northwest, but only by two games over the Jazz. Should Utah manage to catch Denver, Houston would also win any tie against the Nuggets for the same reason.

The Rockets winning the Southwest is vital, because if they don’t, they are poorly positioned for tiebreakers. Should Houston not win its division, the next tiebreaker is conference record, and the Rockets have more losses against the West than any of the other five teams.

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Houston also has two additional in-division losses than the Mavericks. So if the Mavs and Rockets were to end up tied for the Southwest, they’re not in a good spot for that tiebreaker unless they win both games at Dallas to secure the season series at three games to one.

But if the Rockets pull off that feat, it’s hard to imagine how they could possibly be tied with Dallas at the end of the season, since they already have a three-game lead on the Mavs in the loss column.

Realistically, should the Rockets and Mavs end up tied, it would almost certainly mean that Dallas won at least one of those head-to-head meetings. If that’s the case, Dallas would likely win any tiebreaker.

In short, the biggest priority for the Rockets (39-22) is maintaining their current advantage and holding off the Mavericks (38-25) to win the Southwest Division championship.

If they do that, not only will they be guaranteed to be ahead of the Mavs in 2020 NBA playoffs seeding, but they would also be in strong position to hold tiebreakers over the Clippers and potentially the Nuggets, as well.

One small silver lining is that if the Rockets are caught by the Mavericks, it would seem unlikely that they’d be in a position to tie the Nuggets and Clippers, anyway, since they already trail them by two and three games. In that doomsday scenario, tiebreakers could be inconsequential.

The bottom line: If Houston takes care of its own business, they’re well positioned for most tiebreakers, since the only team they’d definitely lose one against (Oklahoma City) is two games back in the loss column. It’s up to James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and the rest of the Rockets to take advantage of that opportunity as the regular season draws to a close.

Standings update: Rockets edge closer to top three in West

The Rockets (34-20) haven’t played since Tuesday, but they benefited from a pair of losses by the Nuggets (38-17) and Clippers (37-18).

The Rockets finished up their schedule before the 2020 NBA All-Star break with Tuesday’s 116-105 home victory over Boston. It was Houston’s fifth win in seven games, lifting them to 34-20 overall and maintaining their position at No. 5 in the Western Conference playoff race.

But even though the Rockets didn’t play Wednesday or Thursday, they still improved their relative position in the standings.

Of the four teams in front of Houston in the West, two of them lost their final games heading into the All-Star break. Denver (38-17) lost at home Wednesday to the Lakers, while the Clippers (37-18) lost Thursday at Boston. That brings the Rockets within two games in the loss column of the No. 3 seed, and three games of the No. 2 seed.

Going by current winning percentage, the Rockets have the easiest remaining schedule of any current West playoff team. The Nuggets, who currently hold the No. 2 seed, have the hardest schedule by winning percentage of any team in the West’s top seven spots.

The Rockets also have an easier schedule on paper than No. 6 Oklahoma City and No. 7 Dallas, who are currently just two games behind Houston in the loss column. In particular, Houston needs to hold off the Mavericks, since winning the Southwest Division could give the Rockets a significant boost in potential tiebreaker scenarios.

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By standings impact, Houston’s biggest remaining games are Saturday, Feb. 22 at Utah and Thursday, March 5 at home versus the Clippers.

The Rockets trail No. 4 Utah by two games, which means they could cut the deficit in half with a win in their second game after the All-Star break. Since eight teams make the playoffs in each conference, getting into the top four assures home-court advantage in at least one round.

More importantly, because the Rockets and Jazz only play three times, the winner of that Feb. 22 game in Salt Lake City will secure the season series and potential tiebreaker between the teams. Both Houston and Utah have now won on the other’s home floor following Bojan Bogdanovic’s shocking buzzer-beater at Toyota Center earlier this week.

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There’s similar importance to the March 5 matchup with the Clippers. Based on current standings, it would be an opportunity to halve the deficit. Moreover, it could also determine the tiebreaker, since Houston currently leads Los Angeles in the season series by a 2-1 margin.

If the Rockets and Clippers split the season series at 2-2, as Houston already did with Denver, then winning the Southwest could prove critical — since the next tiebreaker in two-team scenarios after head-to-head results is whether a team won its division.

Going by the all-important loss column, Houston leads the Southwest Division by two games over Dallas, while the Clippers trail the Lakers in the Pacific by a whopping six games. The Nuggets do have a lead in the Northwest, but only by a game over the Jazz.

Thus, whether the Rockets can hold off Dallas could prove critical in not only being ahead of the Mavs in the standings, but also with potential tiebreakers involving other teams. The Rockets and Mavs, who have split their two games so far, play March 23 and Apr. 7, both in Dallas.

Houston likely needs to win at least one of those games, since allowing the Mavs to take both would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker versus the Rockets while also making up the current two-game gap.

The Rockets resume play next Thursday at Golden State (12-43), who has the NBA’s worst record this season. Tip-off is at 9:30 p.m. Central, with the game televised nationally on TNT.

If the Rockets can take care of business there, in a way that they did not on Christmas Day, that could give Houston a chance to continue its move up the standings — since other West playoff teams (such as Denver at Oklahoma City on Friday) have tougher games out of the break.

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Analysis: Where the Rockets stand with potential West tiebreakers

Entering February, here’s where the Rockets stand with regards to potential tiebreakers, and why Dallas is the primary team to track.

Entering Sunday’s home game versus New Orleans, the Houston Rockets are 30-18 and in the No. 5 spot in the Western Conference. They have 34 games left to play in the 2019-20 regular season.

However, given how tightly bunched the West standings are, it would be misleading to focus solely on their seed at a given moment. The Rockets are only three games back in the loss column of No. 2 Denver, and just two games ahead of No. 7 Oklahoma City.

Things can change very quickly, for better or for worse.

Thus, as the season hits the home stretch, it’s becoming quite possible that Houston could end up tied with one or more teams. In that case, tiebreakers would be used to decide seeding for the NBA playoffs.

Tiebreaker rules are available at the bottom of the league’s official standings page. As far as what that means for the Rockets entering February, it varies on a case-by-case basis.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas is the most important team to track, from a Houston perspective. At the moment, the Rockets and Mavs (30-19) have split their two games so far this season, with two more remaining in Dallas.

If they split head-to-head, the next tiebreaker criteria would be division record, since both teams are in the same division. (For teams in different divisions, it would be conference record.) At the moment, Dallas has the edge with only one Southwest loss, as compared to four for Houston. That means the Rockets probably need to maintain, or ideally expand, their current advantage in the standings to hold off Dallas.

But the biggest reason Dallas’ record is so important to the Rockets is because both teams are fighting for the Southwest Division title, and thus it affects all of Houston’s other potential tiebreakers as well.

In a tie of three teams or more, the first criteria is eliminating the non-division winners. For a two-team tie, if the head-to-head meetings are split, the division tiebreaker is next on the list.

So if the Rockets can hold off Dallas and win the Southwest Division, it significantly boosts their odds of winning several other tiebreakers as well. For example, between the Nuggets, Jazz, and Thunder, only one can win the Northwest Division. Similarly, while the Clippers still have an opportunity to tie the season series with the Rockets, they’re unlikely to win the Pacific Division because of the presence of the Lakers (37-11).

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Denver Nuggets

The Rockets and Nuggets (34-15) have concluded their four games in the 2019-20 season, with each side winning twice at home. At the moment, Denver would seem well positioned for a potential tiebreaker against Houston, since they’ve been disproportionately stronger in the West.

Though the Nuggets have just three less overall losses than the Rockets, they have six fewer losses in the Western Conference.

However, this is a prime example of where the division title could be very important. If the Rockets win their division and the Nuggets don’t win theirs, Houston would own the tiebreaker over Denver — even if the Nuggets have a superior conference record (which they likely will).

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Utah Jazz

The Rockets and Jazz (32-17) play just three times this season, so there will be a head-to-head winner. The Rockets won on Jan. 27 in Utah, giving them an opportunity to clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker when the Jazz make a return visit to Houston next Sunday, Feb. 9.

If the Rockets aren’t able to win that game, the rubber match would be Saturday, Feb. 22 back in Salt Lake City.

Should the Rockets win at least one of those two games, it would give Houston the edge on Utah in a two-team tie, and most likely in a three-team tie unless the Jazz win their division and the Rockets do not.

If they clinch the tiebreaker versus Utah, it’s probably to the advantage of the Rockets to cheer for the Jazz to win the Northwest Division, since Houston likely needs Denver to not win its division in order to earn that potential tiebreaker. The Nuggets and Jazz have three head-to-head meetings still left this season, including two in the season’s final 10 days in April. Those could prove pivotal.

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Los Angeles Clippers

The Rockets have won two of three games this season versus the Clippers (34-15), with the final matchup looming March 5 in Houston. If the Rockets win that game, they would secure the season series and the head-to-head tiebreaker over Los Angeles.

If the Clippers win in March, it gets murky. The Clippers currently have 11 losses in the West compared to 14 for the Rockets ⁠— but that’s less important than it might sound, since they have three fewer losses overall, as well. For the teams to end up tied, the Rockets would have to have made up three games on the Clippers, anyway. It’s quite possible that the shrinking of that gap could come based on conference results.

Should the conference record of both teams also end up tied, the next tiebreaker would be record vs. other West playoff teams.

However, this is another scenario where the Southwest title could be huge for the Rockets. The Clippers are four games back of the Lakers in the loss column for the Pacific Division. If that lead holds up, the Rockets would still earn the tiebreaker, even if the Clippers manage to split the season series and finish with a better in-conference mark than Houston or record versus other West playoff teams.

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Oklahoma City Thunder

The Rockets lost the season series to the Thunder (30-20), two games to one, which gives Oklahoma City the tiebreaker in two-team scenarios.

However, in a tie of three or more teams, the Rockets could still edge out the Thunder (who are five back in the Northwest Division) if Houston holds off Dallas to win the Southwest.

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Overall, the biggest variable by far is where the Rockets stand relative to Dallas. If Houston wins the Southwest Division, then not only does that inherently mean that they’re ahead of the Mavs in the race for playoff seeding, but it also could push them past other teams as well, thanks to the league’s tiebreaker rules and the importance of division titles.

2019 AFC and NFC playoff scenarios for Week 13

Here’s a look a which teams in the AFC and NFC can clinch 2019 playoff spots Week 13 of the 2019 NFL regular season.

The Seattle Seahawks have just five more regular-season games on the books as they continue the hunt for a coveted playoff spot.

The NFL has now released the official playoff scenarios for Week 13. Here’s how things are shaping up for the postseason – below is a copy of the league’s press release.

AFC

CLINCHED: None

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-1) (at Houston (7-4), Sunday, 8:20 PM ET, NBC)

New England clinches playoff berth with:

  1. NE win + OAK loss or tie OR
  2. NE win + PIT loss or tie OR
  3. NE tie + OAK loss + PIT loss OR
  4. NE tie + OAK loss + IND loss OR
  5. NE tie + PIT loss + IND loss

​NFC

CLINCHED: None

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-2) (at Atlanta (3-8), Thursday, 8:20 PM ET, NBC)

New Orleans clinches NFC South division title with:​

  1. NO win OR
  2. NO tie + CAR loss or tie

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (10-1) (at Baltimore (9-2), Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX)

San Francisco clinches playoff berth with:

  1. SF win + LAR loss or tie OR
  2. SF tie + LAR loss

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