The Counter: Who will win Super Bowl LV?

Can the Chiefs put the crowning achievement on an incredible season?

It’s been the Kansas City Chiefs all along.

Through an offseason of uncertainty — which included Tom Brady’s shocking decision to leave the Patriots dynasty for Tampa Bay — and a season played while the coronavirus sidelined players, re-shaped schedules and even displaced one team, there was one thing we kept coming back to on The Counter, our NFL podcast:

The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs remained waaaayyyy out in front of the rest of the league.

They’ll have a chance to prove it one final time Sunday night, in Tampa Bay, against Brady and the Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55.

The Counter’s hosts — Steven Ruiz, Charles McDonald and Chris Korman — got together for this special video episode to discuss how the game will unfold and whether Patrick Mahomes and his teammates will end up becoming the first back-to-back champion since the Patriots did it in 2003-04.

We broke down the matchup in-depth with special guests Namita Nandakumar, a former quantitive analyst with the Philadelphia Eagles, and Keegan Abdoo, an analyst at Next Gen Stats, on the latest full-length episode of the podcast, as well.

You can subscribe, download and listen to The Counter wherever you prefer to get your podcasts. Or use the links below.

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Brees or Herbert: Who are you taking for the rest of the 2020 NFL season?

The rookie or the vet? Steven Ruiz picks between Brees and Herbert on who he would want as his QB for the rest of the 2020 season.

The rookie or the vet? Steven Ruiz picks between Brees and Herbert on who he would want as his QB for the rest of the 2020 season.

The Counter: Tips for picking your fantasy team ahead of the most unusual NFL season ever

Also: George Kittle’s new deal and the return of Hard Knocks

Our good friend Charles Curtis, writer and editor here at For The Win, joined the latest episode of The Counter to discuss George Kittle’s new deal, the first episode of Hard Knocks and fantasy football.

He gave out his top sleepers and most likely busts and also talked general strategy going into a season where an entire new element — a positive Covid-19 test — cold force players to miss time.

And according to Charles, long-time observer of the Hard Knocks series, this season has some extra verve to it because of how the teams being profiled, the Los Angeles Rams and Chargers, have to adjust, well, everything due to the pandemic. An alarmingly low number of viewers tuned in to the first episode, our sister site Rams Wire reports, but Charles promises the show is worth a look (I wonder if would-be Hard Knocks viewers are watching live NBA, NHL or MLB games instead.)

You can catch the show wherever you prefer to get your podcasts, use one of these links or click on the player below:

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The Counter: The X’s and O’s of how NFL defenses get after the QB

In this episode, we discuss “Getting Home,” Steven’s deep dive into the world of blitzing at the NFL level.

The NFL is an offense-first league but that doesn’t mean we can’t give the defensive side of the ball some love every now and then. That’s what we did in this week’s episode. After a brief hiatus, The Counter returns for a deep dive into the world of blitzing.

We’ve published a series called “Getting Home,” which covers the evolution of blitzing at the NFL level, and that’s the focus of the discussion this week. We do touch on the early stages of training camp and the outlook for the 2020 season, but most of this week’s episode focuses on the X’s and O’s behind the five-part series, which you can read here.

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Some of the concepts we cover:

It’s a dream episode for pass rush nerds. And if you want more, be sure to check out “Getting Home,” which includes all the diagrams, illustrations and film clips you need to learn all the concepts covered in this week’s episode.

You can listen wherever you prefer to get your podcasts or below.

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The Counter: Why do the Cowboys still have doubts about Dak Prescott?

USA TODAY’s Lorenzo Reyes joins the show to talk about a player he knows well.

USA Today’s Lorenzo Reyes traveled to Starkville, Miss. in the spring of 2016 to talk to a college quarterback there who had just been busted for a DUI. His draft stock was sliding but, as Reyes tells us in the latest episode of our NFL podcast The Counter, that QB owned up to his mistake and the consequences.

He vowed then to stick in the NFL and strive for a lucrative second contract.

Four remarkable seasons later, Dak Prescott is still waiting for that long-term deal. As Steven wrote yesterday, it doesn’t make any sense at all that the Cowboys continuing hedging — unless you take into consideration the fact that black quarterbacks are STILL stereotyped and doubted because of the same racist notions that prevented them from even being allowed to play the position for decades.

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Yes, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson have signed huge deals but they were extraordinary exceptions; thrilling players who won Super Bowls early in their careers.

Prescott, meanwhile, has provided Dallas with steady, smart QB play that has too often been attributed to the presence of an overrated offensive line or the supposedly elite running back Ezekiel Elliott.

Lorenzo discussed his thoughts on Prescott — who he’s interviewed multiple subsequent times — and why the Cowboys refuse to make a longterm commitment to a young QB who clearly deserves it.

We also broke down the latest coronavirus numbers and how they might impact the NFL’s upcoming training camps, and discussed the rumors swirling about an explosive story on the unnamed Washington franchise (which The Washington Post has since published and is every bit as awful as expected, as 15 women detailed a horrific culture of harassment and abuse that, Steven wrote, should finally force the NFL into pushing Daniel Snyder out of its ownership group.)

You can listen wherever you prefer to get your podcasts or below.

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The Counter: Tom Brady’s unexpected pick for his best performance says so much about him

Gotham Chopra joins to discuss his new docuseries, GREATNESS CODE.

Episode 2 of Greatness Code, a docuseries coming to Apple TV+ on July 10, is about 7 minutes long.

Yet there might not be anything you can watch or read about Tom Brady that will better explain his thinking and what drives him.

Gotham Chopra, director and creator of Greatness Code, joined our NFL podcast, The Counter, to discuss the new series and, most intently, the episode covering the game Brady selected as the moment when he felt most in the zone.

You almost certainly won’t be able to predict which game he picked.

Chopra, a Patriots fan and business partner of Brady’s (with the media company Religion of Sports) brought us the series Tom vs. Time and is in the midst of working on Man In The Arena: Tom Brady, the nine-part series scheduled for release on ESPN in 2021.

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So Chopra knows of what he speaks when it comes to Brady, and he offered insight into Brady’s decision to leave Bill Belichick and the Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He also discussed what motivates Brady to keep proving himself, long after any reasonable doubt about his greatness has been stamped out.

Chopra, who’s also worked with LeBron James, Steph Curry and Kobe Bryant among others (his series uncovering unique athletes and events, Religon of Sports, is wonderful), also shared his feelings on the Patriots’ signing of Cam Newton and reflected on the way athletes have stoked discussion and forced change in the wake of the killing of George Floyd and subsequent protests.

It’s an honest and enlightening conversation with one of our foremost chroniclers of elite athletes as he prepares for his most unique project yet — short form, using stylized sketches to do much of the storytelling  — to debut.

Chopra was also a producer on the film 89 Blocks, which follows the 2016 season of the East St. Louis Flyers high school football team. A recent story on For The Win — “Patriots’ Jeff Thomas is already a success — and more complex than ‘talented but troubled’ label” — caught up with the star wide receiver from that team, an undrafted free agent signee with New England.

The author of that piece, Henry McKenna, joined us to discuss what he learned from talking to friends and coaches who know and love Thomas and believe he can stick in the NFL — while admitting, without getting into specifics, that Thomas’ life has not been easy. The story feels all the more essential now, as Floyd’s death (along with Breonna Taylor and Ahmaud Arbery, among others), has finally forced many to reckon with the scourge of systemic racism that has plagued our country since before it was even a country.

We hope you’ll listen to this episode wherever you happen to get your podcasts. You can also use the links or player below.

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The Counter: Nate Tice thinks Sam Darnold will be good … just maybe not for the Jets

Former NFL coach and scout envisions a strong second act for Sam Darnold.

Well, Steven infuriated a fanbase by pointing out that their team’s quarterback *probably* won’t be the savior they’re hoping for … again.

This time it was by telling New York Jets fans that Sam Darnold, despite moments of intrigue, has not shown — either on film or through underlying metrics — that he’s liable to become a top NFL QB.

The reaction was swift and emotional and at times unhinged and usually unaccommodating of the basic facts Steven used to compile his argument. But, again, that’s generally how these things go (and it’s OK for fans to hold out hope and believe in a player they like; that’s sports.)

So, Jets fans, we brought on Nate Tice, a former QB at Wisconsin who has since worked for the Falcons, Raiders and Alliance of American Football (also his father is Mike Tice, longtime NFL coach), to offer a more optimistic take on what Sam Darnold’s future might be.

Nate’s become one of the most interesting NFL follows on Twitter (@Nate_Tice) because of his attention to detail and penchant for grinding tape always. That insight certainly comes through in our discussion, as he pulls apart what’s holding Darnold back (he mentions the lack of protection, which was a common and fair retort from Jets fans), what he might do to fix those issues and, perhaps more importantly, how Jets coaches have failed to put him in the right position to succeed consistently.

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It’s worth a listen if you care about QB play and development and the decision that teams must make after using a high pick on a QB who doesn’t deliver right away. And if you’re an NFL fan you obviously care about those things.

Nate also sticks around to give us thoughts on a few other topics:

  • Why Cam Newton’s arrival will allow the Patriots to finally add some excitement to what they do on offense
  • Why he’s excited to see the guy Newton is replacing, Tom Brady, in an offensive system where he’ll be asked to push the ball downfield and take more risks
  • He explains which teams will be most hurt by the cancellation of offseason activities (young ones with exotic schemes) and which ones will thrive (the Chiefs)
  • Finally Nate offers his thoughts on what the season might actually look like, given the growing numbers of COVID-19 cases in many parts of the country

You can subscribe, download and listen to The Counter wherever you prefer to get your podcasts. Or use the links below.

Enjoy your Fourth of July weekend. We’ll be back Monday morning, bringing you an interview with Gotham Chopra, a frequent collaborator with Tom Brady who has a fascinating documentary series dropping late next week.

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The Counter: What does the NFL owe Colin Kaepernick now?

There’s nothing the league can do to make up for those lost years.

On the 14th episode of our NFL podcast, The Counter, we turned our attention to predicting what will happen next for Colin Kaepernick.

The movement he started by first sitting, then kneeling, during the playing of the national anthem four years ago has gained traction in the wake of the police killings of George Floyd in Minneapolis and Breonna Taylor in Louisville.

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell went so far as to admit the league was wrong for silencing protesting players. Unfathomably, he did so without even saying Colin Kaepernick’s name.

No matter: Kaepernick soon moved to the center of the discussion anyway, with Rev. Al Sharpton calling for his return to the league while giving a eulogy for Floyd.

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It’s a nice sentiment, and obviously Kaepernick should get the chance to return to the game he has maintained, all along, that he loves. But we can’t pretend that allowing a 32-year-old to return after three whole years away even begins to make up for the league’s blackballing of a man who simply wanted to raise awareness of the racism and injustice he saw in this country.

Kaepernick missed out on prime athletic years — and more so on the experience that would have allowed him to transition into being effective later in his career. He was robbed of three years worth of reps in practice and possibly games that would have allowed him to more quickly decode defenses. He had three years of careful coaching, the kind that molds a raw QB into a proficient one, stolen from him.

We’ll never know what Colin Kaepernick could have been; if he returns, he’ll be only a shadow of the player that would have developed if he’d received the same chances that every other quarterback of his talent level routinely gets. So let’s not make his return some sort of symbol for whether the NFL is taking Black Lives seriously; the damage is already done.

We also used this episode to dig in on the wild Bills-Oilers wild card game from 1993 that saw Buffalo erase a 32-point deficit before winning in overtime. Steven covered that in-depth in a story earlier this week and traced how the Run N Shoot’s “ineffectiveness” in the playoffs probably delayed the NFL’s transition away from a conservative approach that valued establishing the run first and foremost.

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So, yeah, you can blame Frank Reich (and the officials who missed calls on Don Beebe and Darryl Tally) for those years of unimaginative football around the turn of the century.

You can pick up The Counter at any of your preferred podcast spots — a few are linked here — or by using the player at the bottom of this post.

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The Counter: What to make of the Drew Brees story and Roger Goodell’s statement

Michael Sykes joins The Counter to talk about the Drew Brees story and the NFL’s reaction to the protests speak by George Floyd’s death.

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It’s time to shut up and listen. For too long, black voices have been suppressed in this country and what we’re seeing across the country is a direct result of that suppression. For too long, white people — and white men, in particular — have had the floor, free to espouse their own beliefs without much of a care for how it affected others.

But, thankfully, that seems to be changing. Diversity of thought is not just preferred. It’s demanded. As it should be, even if it isn’t in the best interest of those who hold the power in this country.

White people are learning that, sometimes, it’s okay to remain on the sidelines. Your opinion does not have to be heard on every matter. This is one of those instances. And that’s a big reason why we skipped our Friday episode last week. Chris Korman and I had put our thoughts out there at the beginning of the week and felt that nobody needed another hour of two white dudes talking about what’s going on — especially when very little of it had to do with the NFL.

Drew Brees changed that last part with one ignorant sound bite, which set off a seemingly inextinguishable fire across the NFL landscape. Years after Colin Kaepernick first kneeled, and his explanation fell on uninterested ears, the Saints quarterback set the conversation back, mischaracterizing player protests during the anthem as disrespect for the flag and country.

His comments were criticized by countless black players across the league, including some of his more prominent teammates. Brees didn’t quite get the message. At least initially. An empty apology, featuring the requisite stock photo of black and white hands locked in a handshake, was not well received, but Brees was given another opportunity when the president decided to weigh in. That’s when the 41-year-old quarterback finally said the right thing.

View this post on Instagram

To @realdonaldtrump Through my ongoing conversations with friends, teammates, and leaders in the black community, I realize this is not an issue about the American flag. It has never been. We can no longer use the flag to turn people away or distract them from the real issues that face our black communities. We did this back in 2017, and regretfully I brought it back with my comments this week. We must stop talking about the flag and shift our attention to the real issues of systemic racial injustice, economic oppression, police brutality, and judicial & prison reform. We are at a critical juncture in our nation’s history! If not now, then when? We as a white community need to listen and learn from the pain and suffering of our black communities. We must acknowledge the problems, identify the solutions, and then put this into action. The black community cannot do it alone. This will require all of us.

A post shared by Drew Brees (@drewbrees) on

As that story developed, Roger Goodell took his second crack at making a statement after the league’s first attempt was widely panned. This time around, Goodell said those magic words: Black Lives Matter.

To best cover those stories, we invited FTW’s Michael Sykes to join the conversation. In addition to his work at FTW, Sykes writes The Kicks You Wear, a bi-weekly newsletter covering the world of sneakers. Understandably, he did not ‘stick to sneakers’ last week. Instead, he wrote an emotional essay on George Floyd’s death and everything that had happened as a result.

These killings are senseless. They shouldn’t have happened. All three of these people should still be alive and with us today. Yet, here we are. They aren’t. And chaos ensues because of it. And the wildest part of it all? It’s that this feels normal for us. This is America.

We talk to Sykes about his thought process when penning that essay and get his thoughts on the Brees story, Goodell’s statement and much more. You can find (and subscribe!) to The Counter at the usual spots linked below. Thanks for listening.

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The Counter: All the things we could have learned from Colin Kaepernick

And yet still so many will not listen.

This is not to say that if Colin Kaepernick had been allowed to keep playing in the NFL — and kneeling during the national anthem — that George Floyd would have lived. Or that streets across America would have avoided the flood of sorrow and righteous rage that we have seen the last several nights.

It is only to say that if you did not listen then you must now try to understand why suffocating those sparks in 2016 and 2017 helped lead us here, to America on fire.

In the 12th episode of The Counter, Steven Ruiz and I recounted Kaepernick’s story — what should have been learned and why it wasn’t. His message should resonate more than ever, but the same people who obscured it then are using similar tactics to obfuscate or outright ignore the meaning of uprisings in Minneapolis and D.C and Brooklyn and Louisville and Raleigh and Indianapolis and Los Angeles and Philadelphia and so many other places.

Those who stifled Kaepernick still do not listen now. Yes, the NFL put out a bizarre statement vaguely addressing the situation, saying the NFL family was “greatly saddened by the tragic events” — without acknowledging what caused those events. The word racism does not appear in the statement. Nor does the word police. There is no reckoning here, and the league was rightfully castigated immediately by the internet and players. Charles McDonald of the New York Daily News dropped a scathing column that you should not miss.

A former league vice president, meanwhile, wrote a mealy mouthed mea culpa for CNN saying now was the time for an NFL team — namely the Minnesota Vikings — to sign Kaepernick. As if some sort of public relations “win” would have meaning now.

We also discussed inadequate responses from most NFL and college coaches and looked ahead to what needs to happen next: White men around the sport of football acknowledging the pain and fear that a majority of their co-workers have felt for their entire lives, and committing to being actively anti-racist as the difficult work of dismantling broken system commences.

You can find the show at these links, or listen below.

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