The No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders (20-6, 9-4 Big 12) visit the Frank Erwin Center Saturday to take on the No. 20 Texas Longhorns (19-7, 8-5). Tip-off is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Texas Tech vs. Texas odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
This has all the makings of a massive, thrilling Big 12 battle.
Texas is 15-1 at home this season, including wins against Kansas and Tennessee. The Longhorns’ lone loss was by 1 point (66-65) to Kansas State.
Texas might be dominant at home, but it is just 9-7 against the spread (ATS) there this season. The Longhorns have covered 3 of their last 4 but only 4 of their last 10. They have the No. 2-ranked defense in the nation, allowing just 57.6 points per game.
As for Texas Tech, it already took down Texas 77-64 this season, covering as a 4-point home favorite. The Red Raiders have covered 8 of their last 9.
Texas Tech is 4-3 ATS on the road. It ranks 105th in scoring (74.2 PPG) and 20th in opponents’ scoring (61.3 PPG).
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Texas Tech at Texas odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:28 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Texas Tech +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Texas -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Texas Tech +3.5 (-110) | Texas -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 125.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Texas Tech at Texas odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas 64, Texas Tech 61
Money line
LEAN to TEXAS (-180).
I know it’s more expensive, but this has all the makings of a close, hard-fought game. It’s more comfortable laying the worse odds here than banking on a team winning by more than one possession.
Texas has been almost impossible to beat at home.
Just because it has won at home doesn’t mean it has covered, beating Kansas by 3 (79-76), Tennessee by 1 (52-51), and Oklahoma State by 5 (56-51) within their last 4 home games, failing to cover 2 of those.
It’s difficult to beat a team twice, especially one that has the second-best defense in the country and should have a raucous crowd backing it.
I’ll take TEXAS (-180) for a small wager to win outright here.
Against the spread
LEAN to TEXAS TECH +3.5 (-110).
I like the money line more in this one considering how close of a battle it projects to be, but Texas Tech, unlike Texas, has been a covering machine as of late.
I already mentioned the Red Raiders are 8-1 ATS over their last 9. They’re also 18-8 ATS overall. They’re the best-covering team in the Big 12 and are 8-1 ATS against ranked opponents.
Having already beaten Texas handily at home, this should be a close game. A 3.5-point spread is a bit too much not to consider with how good Texas Tech has played this season.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 125.5 (-107).
With an O/U of 123.5 in their first meeting of the season, the rivals combined for 141 points, well surpassing the projected total.
This time around, the O/U is 2 points higher. The trend points to this being a low-scoring game.
Texas owns the best Under home record in the conference at 11-5, while Texas Tech has the best Under road mark in the Big 12 at 5-2.
Both teams rank outside the top 150 (TTU 161st and Texas 342nd of just 358 teams) in possessions per game.
With Texas ranked 2nd in opponents’ points per game and Texas Tech 15th in opponents’ field-goal percentage, this has “gritty, slow-paced, defensive battle” written all over it.
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