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The No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers (9-2, 5-2 SEC) meet the Vanderbilt Commodores (6-5, 3-4) at FirstBank Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (ABC). Below, we look at Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt odds from BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Tennessee rebounded in style on Saturday, steamrolling the UTEP Miners 56-0. The Volunteers easily covered the 41.5-point spread, and the Over (54.5) hit.
QB Nico Iamaleava led the way with 4 TD passes while RB Dylan Sampson racked up 77 yards and a score, RB Peyton Lewis had 46 yards and 2 TD, and RB Cameron Seldon chipped in 44 yards and a TD. The defense forced 3 turnovers and limited UTEP to just 230 total yards.
Vanderbilt lost for the second week in a row, coming up short in a 24-17 loss to the LSU Tigers in Death Valley on Saturday. The Commodores managed to cover as 10-point underdogs, while the Under (52.5) hit.
QB Diego Pavia put up 186 passing yards and contributed TD both through the air and on the ground. WR Quincy Skinner Jr. had 3 catches for 72 yards and TD.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Tennessee at Vanderbilt odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tennessee -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Vanderbilt +325 (bet $100 to win $325)
- Against the spread (ATS): Tennessee -11 (-110) | Vanderbilt +11 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Tennessee at Vanderbilt picks and predictions
Prediction
Tennessee 31, Vanderbilt 27
Moneyline
PASS.
This line is too big for a conference rivalry like this one. Tennessee (-450) gets the win, but Vanderbilt makes them work which is why I’ll take my bet to the spread.
Against the spread
BET VANDERBILT +11 (-110).
Tennessee holds the edge in talent, but Vanderbilt has shown it can thrive as an underdog, with 3 outright wins as double-digit underdogs this season, including victories over the Alabama Crimson Tide and Auburn Tigers. Facing the 9th-toughest schedule nationally, the Commodores are 7-1 ATS and confident heading into this rivalry.
Tennessee leads the series 80-33-5, winning 5 straight, including last year’s 48-24 victory where Vanderbilt covered as 27-point underdogs. However, SEC road games have been unpredictable, and playing in Nashville against a motivated in-state rival is no easy task.
Vanderbilt excels at controlling tempo and limiting turnovers, ranking second nationally with just 6 giveaways. Pavia’s mobility adds another layer, allowing him to frustrate Tennessee’s defense if the offensive line holds up.
With a winning season on the line, Vanderbilt has plenty of motivation. If they control the pace, Tennessee may struggle to cover in what could be a tight game.
Over/Under
BET OVER 48.5 (-110).
Pavia is Vanderbilt’s key playmaker, combining 16 passing TDs with 671 rushing yards. His mobility can challenge Tennessee’s aggressive pass rush and create big plays. Vanderbilt’s offense, scoring 29.7 points per game, thrives on ball control and sustained drives, balancing 187.1 passing yards and 142.1 rushing yards per game.
Tennessee’s offense is explosive, averaging 39.5 points with a near-perfect balance of 228.5 passing and 228.1 rushing yards per game. However, their defense, while top-10 overall, has struggled against mobile QBs and allowed 20+ points in four of their last six SEC games.
Vanderbilt’s defense, yielding 30.2 PPG in SEC play, faces a tough test against Tennessee, which has been Over in 3 of its last 4 games. While the Vols aim for a playoff berth, Vanderbilt is chasing its first winning season since 2013 and looks to play spoiler in a motivated home effort.
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