Tag: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators odds predictions pick betting line spread

Tennessee at Florida odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Tennessee at Florida odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers (2-0, 0-0 SEC) start conference play on the road against the Florida Gators (1-1, 0-0) Saturday. Kickoff from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is scheduled for 7 p.m. (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tennessee vs. Florida odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Two former Big 10 quarterbacks meet for the first time in the SEC this weekend in “The Swamp.” Highly recruited QB Joe Milton III transferred from Michigan and has been adequate through his first 2 games with the Volunteers. While QB Graham Mertz came over from Wisconsin to lead the Gators and lost his debut to current-No. 12 Utah before bouncing back with a victory over McNeese.

Milton and Mertz squared off in 2020 as Mertz led Wisconsin to a 49-11 victory over Michigan in the Big House. Mertz has the experience edge over Milton, having started more than 30 games from huge conference matchups to bowl games.

Tennessee has coasted to 2 home victories to start their season, outscoring their opponents 79 to 26. There are rumblings that Volunteer’s head coach Josh Heupel’s first-year success in Knoxville may not be able to be replicated now that everyone has tape on them but they’re off to a good start. Tennessee is 11-4 ATS across its last 15 games.

Gators head coach Billy Napier needs to take a step forward after going 6-7 in his first season in Gainesville. Florida bounced back with a 49-7 victory over McNeese after falling to Utah in its season opener.

Florida has dominated the series between these programs in recent years and had won 5 straight games before Tennessee picked up a 38-33 home victory in 2022. The Gators are 1-4 ATS over the school’s past 5 games overall but are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Vols. The Volunteers are 0-9 straight up in their last 9 road games against Florida.

The Volunteers are ranked No. 9 in the USA TODAY Coaches Poll.

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Tennessee at Florida odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:08 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Tennessee -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Florida +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Tennessee -6.5 (-110) | Florida +6.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Tennessee at Florida picks and predictions

Prediction

Tennessee 24, Florida 20

Moneyline

This will be a tight contest between bitter rivals. I don’t believe Tennessee (-250) should be such a heavy favorite — it would be around -175 if I was setting the line. Florida could win this game outright, so I’m going to look to the spread for this bet.

PASS.

Against the spread

BET FLORIDA +6.5 (-110).

The Gators basically owned the Volunteers before last season’s loss in Knoxville. Florida is 16-2 straight up in the last 18 games between these schools and Tennessee has only been able to score more than 20 points in just 2 of the last 9 games in Gainesville.

I have Tennessee winning the game but Florida should keep this tight down to the wire.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 58.5 (-110).

These two teams put up 71 points in Knoxville last year but this should be more of a grind-it-out game. Florida does not want to get into a shoot out with Tennessee — it would not end well for the Gators — so it needs to keep this game in the 40s to have any chance of winning.

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Tennessee at Florida odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Tennessee at Florida odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers (18-3, 7-1 SEC) face the rival Florida Gators (12-9, 5-3) in Gainesville Wednesday. Tip from Exactech Arena at Stephen C. O’Connell Center is at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Tennessee vs. Florida odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

Tennessee enters on a 4-game win streak, most recently recording an 82-71 victory as a 5.5-point favorite against current-No. 9 Texas Saturday. That victory displayed the Volunteers’ ability to win by outscoring opponents and not just by using their elite defense to shut teams down.

Florida allows 65.0 points per game (60th) and will be able to hold down the Volunteers, but Tennessee is 1st in the nation with 54.5 points allowed per game and an opponents’ field-goal percentage of 34.5%. Florida’s mediocre offense (71.9 points per game, 174th) will be forced into bad shots all night.

Florida ranks 23rd in the nation with an opponents’ field-goal percentage of 39.7% and will need to force the Volunteers into plenty of scoreless possessions if they want to try to pull off an upset.

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Tennessee at Florida odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Tennessee -240 (bet $240 to win $100) | Florida +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Tennessee -5.5 (-105) | Florida +5.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 132.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Tennessee at Florida picks and predictions

Prediction

Tennessee 68, Florida 61

Moneyline

PASS.

Tennessee comes in on a 4-game win streak since losing to Kentucky on Jan. 14.  An 82-71 win over current-No. 9 Texas Saturday followed a 70-41 demolition of Georgia last Wednesday.

Florida is much more like the latter and a low-scoring affair is in store for Gainesville on Wednesday.

Despite that Tennessee (-240) is likely to win, that’s far too steep for a standalone wager. However, it’s a fine addition to a parlay.

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Against the spread

BET TENNESSEE -5.5 (-105).

Tennessee is battle-tested this season with matchups against top-10 opponents in Texas and Arizona. The Volunteers’ defense will once again hold a lesser team to minimal points and will be able to run away from the Gators. The line should be closer to 8 points, so the 2.5 points of value make this a strong play.

Over/Under

UNDER 132.5 (-115) is the play on the total.

Both teams have elite defenses and neither offense is potent, both scoring fewer than 75 points per game.

Tennessee put up 82 in its win over Texas, but that was against a Longhorns team whose offensive prowess determined the need to do so. The Gators’ offense will not make this needed, and a defensive game is more likely in this SEC tilt.

Tennessee held Georgia to 41 in its last conference game and it will be able to hold Florida to the high 50s Wednesday.

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Tennessee at Florida odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Tennessee at Florida odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Tennessee Volunteers (2-1) visit the Florida Gators (2-1) for an SEC East showdown at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla., Saturday for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff. Below, we look at the Tennessee vs. Florida odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

Tennessee bounced back from a Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh with a 56-0 rout of FCS foe Tennessee Tech last week. The setback against the Panthers stands out, as the Vols were minus-3 in the turnover column in that contest and they were undone by 134 yards in penalties.

Also see: SEC picks and predictions for Week 4

Florida is No. 11 in the AFCA Coaches Poll, powered by USA TODAY Sports, and is getting a lot of attention for its game against Alabama last week. The Gators outgained the Crimson Tide, 439 yards to 324, and all five of UF’s scoring drives were 75 yards-plus.

The Gators are 15-2 straight up in the head-to-head series since 2004.

Tennessee at Florida odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Tennessee +600 (bet $100 to win $600) | Florida -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Tennessee +19.5 (-108) | Florida -19.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 63.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Tennessee at Florida odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Florida 38, Tennessee 24

Money line

PASS on the juice-drowned prices here.

Against the spread

The Gators are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Florida had some solid defensive days in wins over FAU and USF but those teams have second-division offenses.

Figure Florida as being banged up and by the end of this game, all too willing to play out a two-score victory. Peg Tennessee as being balanced enough and improved enough to live up to that same score range.

BACK THE VOLUNTEERS +19.5 (-108). It’s a bit of a play on a powerful force in nature and sports betting: gravity.

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Over/Under

The Under is 3-1 across the last four meetings in this series dating back to 2017.

Tennessee has logged some solid defensive havoc numbers so far. With enough of a nod to UT and respect for the balance and patience that could well unfold here, BACK THE UNDER 63.5 (-108).

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Tennessee at Florida odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Tuesday’s Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks, tips and predictions.

The Florida Gators (6-4, 3-3 SEC) host conference rival No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (10-1, 4-1) Tuesday in a 7 p.m. ET tip-off in Billy Donovan Court at Exactech Arena. Below, we analyze the Tennessee-Florida college basketball betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Tennessee at Florida: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:18 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Tennessee -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Florida +260 (bet $100 to win $260)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Tennessee -7.5 (+100) | Florida +7.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 135.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Tennessee at Florida: Three things to know

  1. Tennessee has won three straight and four of its past five (3-2 ATS), including an 81-61 rout of Vanderbilt Saturday. The Volunteers are on the shortlist of “best defensive teams in the country.” They are fourth in opponent’s points per game, fourth in defensive rating and seventh in opponent’s turnover percentage.
  2. The Gators have lost three of their previous four games coming into Tuesday. In their last game, a 72-69 loss at Mississippi State, the Gators kept it close, as predicted by bookmakers with an even-money line, despite being outrebounded 47-26 by the Bulldogs. Florida’s defense is on the opposite end of the spectrum as Tennessee’s and the Gators are ranked 237th in rebounds per game.
  3. The Volunteers have dominated the Gators since hiring head coach Rick Barnes in 2015. Tennessee is 5-1 (5-1 ATS) and Florida’s only cover was in an 83-70 win as a 12.5-point favorite in January 2017.

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Tennessee at Florida: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Tennessee 67, Florida 63

Money line (ML)

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE. Tennessee is the right side in this one but it is too pricey for me to bet, even outright, against an SEC rival. Stick with the spread.

Against the spread (ATS)

The market is hammering Tennessee to the point that the line has moved from the Volunteers laying around 5 points on the opener to the current number. My natural instinct is to fade the market and Florida is rarely a home dog—the Gators are 2-0 ATS when getting points at home with a plus-11.2-point ATS margin.

I lean FLORIDA +7.5 (-120) for a quarter-unit mostly as a contrarian play to Barney at the bar, who’s just frivolously laying points with favorites.

Over/Under (O/U)

GIMME UNDER 135.5 (-110) for 1 unit as my favorite play in Tennessee-Florida. This is shaping up to be a Pros vs. Joes scenario in the gambling market: According to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the money has been wagered on the Over while 60% of the total bets placed are on the Under.

Since the money column is generally considered the sharp side of the market, let’s follow the money and BET UNDER 135.5 (-110). Tennessee has a 77.8% implied win probability with its money line price and, since the Volunteers have a 4-7 O/U record, there’s a good chance this game plays Under because that fits Tennessee’s style.

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