The No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) will square off against the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (13-0) in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium on Saturday in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Kickoff is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the TCU vs. Michigan odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports
The Horned Frogs suffered a 31-28 overtime loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game as they failed to cover as 1-point underdogs. Despite the loss, TCU finished as the No. 3 ranked team in the College Football Playoff Rankings. TCU boasts the 6th-best scoring offense in the nation (40.3 points per game) while its defense ranks 56th, allowing 25.0 PPG.
The Wolverines defeated Purdue 43-22 in the Big Ten Championship game, covering as 16-point favorites. Michigan finished the regular season with the 7th-best scoring offense (40.1 points per game) and the 5th-best defense (13.4 PPG).
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TCU vs. Michigan odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:54 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): TCU +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Michigan -310 (bet $310 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): TCU +7.5 (-111) | Michigan -7.5 (-109)
- Over/Under (O/U): 58 (O: -113 | U: -107)
TCU vs. Michigan picks and predictions
Prediction
Michigan 31, TCU 21
Moneyline
Even with the Wolverines expected to come away with the win on Saturday, AVOID the moneyline in this game. Taking Michigan straight up isn’t recommended at the current odds as the return isn’t worth the risk.
Against the spread
Despite the Wolverines not having star RB Blake Corum available (knee surgery), MICHIGAN -7.5 (-109) is still an enticing bet. The Wolverines will lean on their rushing attack (243.0 yards per game) and stout defense to defeat the Horned Frogs on Saturday.
Michigan is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a win. The Wolverines are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
Over/Under
UNDER 58 (-107) is where I’m heading with Michigan having 1 of the best defenses in the country. The Wolverines held Ohio State’s No. 2-ranked offense (44.5 PPG) to 23 points. Michigan allowed less than 2 TDs per game in the regular season and they’ll want to control the time of possession so they can advance to play for the National Championship.
TCU hit the Under in 4 of its last 5 games while Michigan has gone Under in 6 of its last 10 games.
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