The No. 23 TCU Horned Frogs (20-11) battle the No. 12 Kansas State Wildcats (23-8) Thursday. Tip in the 2nd round of the Big 12 Tournament from T-Mobile Center is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the TCU vs. Kansas State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
TCU and Kansas State both earned 1st-round byes as the Horned Frogs come in as the No. 6 seed and the Wildcats the No. 3 seed. In the 2 regular season matchups, the home team won by double digits and covered. The total was 1-1 O/U.
The Horned Frogs were just 3-6 straight up over their last 9 games and 2-7 against the spread (ATS) over that span. They are coming off a 74-60 loss at Oklahoma March 4, failing to cover as a 2-point favorite.
The Wildcats, on the other hand, lost to West Virginia 89-81 March 4, failing to cover as a 5-point road underdog. Kansas State went 4-1 ATS on its last 5 games. It was 20-11 ATS on the season.
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TCU vs. Kansas State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): TCU -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Kansas State +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread (ATS): TCU -1.5 (-115) | Kansas State +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 148.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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TCU vs. Kansas State picks and predictions
Prediction
Kansas State 73, TCU 70
Moneyline
PASS.
While Kansas State (+110) may look enticing, the spread here is the way to go for the better value, especially considering how close conference tournament games can be.
This is a fine play, but I’d prefer getting a couple of points here.
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Against the spread
BET KANSAS STATE +1.5 (-105).
The Wildcats have thrived in this position as they are 12-6 ATS in conference games, the best covering percentage in the Big 12. Both teams are 5-6 ATS on the road as well, so this situation isn’t one either has consistently covered in.
The Cats also ended their season on a good note, covering 4 of their last 5 and beating both Iowa State and Baylor straight up. TCU has struggled as of late, failing to cover 7 of its last 9. It also had a 21-point loss to Kansas State on Feb. 7, the two programs’ most recent matchup.
Put it all together and back KANSAS STATE +1.5 (-105).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 148.5 (-115).
Both teams have consistently been better at hitting the Under lately. Kansas State is 3-6 O/U in its last 9 games while TCU is 2-6 O/U in its last 8 games.
Both teams also rank in the top 50 in opponents’ 3-point field goal percentage. The limited opportunities there should keep the total relatively low. The programs are a combined 18-18 O/U in conference games as well.
For a smaller unit, back the UNDER 148.5 (-115).
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