The Memphis Grizzlies made four picks in the 2022 NBA Draft, selecting Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, Kennedy Chandler, and Vince Williams Jr.
During his introductory press conference, Memphis head coach Taylor Jenkins stressed the versatility that he sees in each of these prospects. Jenkins also emphasized their abilities as playmakers, adding that the “film matches up with the stats” and they all play hard on defense.
We correctly identified LaRavia and Roddy as first-rounders in our final mock draft projections. We also had Roddy projected to Memphis in March and LaRavia to the Grizzlies last month. Roddy, however, was otherwise not often mocked in the first round and LaRavia was rarely considered a top-20 projected pick.
So why was Memphis go against consensus opinion for these two players, even trading away a valuable player in De’Anthony Melton to get the deal done?
When a franchise has a cornerstone like Ja Morant, they do everything they can to work around that building block. So my guess is that these players are individuals the team feels are best suited to support Morant.
But what is it about these players in particular? The data helps provide some context. Last year, based on brilliant research from Shawn Coleman, we speculated about the Grizzlies’ draft philosophy that brings them to target certain types of players in the NBA Draft.
By reverse-engineering statistical profiles, we noticed some notable trends that may intrigue the front office and the scouting department in Memphis. The results for this year yielded three college basketball players who reached the following thresholds last season:
EFFICIENT SHOT SELECTION: EFG% above 57%
VALUE BEYOND SCORING: D-REB% and AST% both above 14%
DEFENSIVE PLAYMAKING: BLK% and STL% both above 2%
Those players (of course) were Wake Forest’s LaRavia, Colorado State’s Roddy, and VCU’s Williams. The Grizzlies literally drafted all three. We also featured all three in our pre-draft interview series!
Chandler, who is the outlier in this group, was a hometown product widely projected to go in the first round. So when he was available in the second round, it was simply too much value to leave him on the board.
Otherwise, however, one reason why those numbers mentioned above are particularly interesting: Some other recent players who also accomplished as much while in college include Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tilllman, and John Konchar. All three, of course, are currently on the Grizzlies.
It’s clear that Memphis wants players that are able to contribute even without the ball in their hands. They are also targeting guys who are ready to make an impact right away, per Grizzlies executive Zach Kleiman:
“As we’ve done with a lot of our prior picks, I think we have mature rookies coming in … Guys who are a little bit more experienced. We feel like we were able to bring in a group that fits what we’re about, and that’s going to help us move the needle.”
The Grizzlies led the league in stocks (steals plus blocks) last season. It’s unlikely, based on what we have seen so far, that they would draft someone with low effort or productivity on that end of the floor.
So what does this mean? Aside from the fact that these are players who can help the Grizzlies straightaway, this exercise can help us identify future NBA prospects who could fit on this roster.
Next season, players who produce at similar levels of productivity as we saw from LaRavia and Roddy ought to be considered targets for Memphis in the 2023 NBA Draft.
Some of the players who were at least relatively close to reaching those aforementioned marks last season and are returning to school include Kris Murray (Iowa), Norchad Omier (Miami), Jalen Slawson (Furman), Azuolas Tubelis (Arizona), Will Richard (Florida), Makhi Mitchell (Arkansas), Kevin Cross (Tulane), and Coleman Hawkins (Illinois).
Perhaps none of them end up going to Memphis, and the Grizzlies try a new philosophy altogether. But regardless, it’s interesting when patterns like this emerge with regard to talent evaluation.
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