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The No. 14 Baylor Bears (2-1) welcome the Tarleton State Texans (1-3) to Foster Pavilion Sunday. Tip is set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Tarleton State vs. Baylor odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Baylor is No. 14 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll. The Bears opened the season on Nov. 4 with a 101-63 neutral-court loss to the No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs, closing as a 6-point underdog. They are coming off a 104-67 win over Sam Houston St. Tuesday, covering as a 16-point home favorite. Baylor is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) and 1-0 ATS at home. It is led by F Norchad Omier, who averages 16 points per game (PPG).
Tarleton State picked up its first win Thursday 88-57 over the Tabor College Bluejays in a game that didn’t feature a spread. In the game before the Texans lost 72-52 to the Florida State Seminoles as a 17.5-point road underdog. The Texans are 0-3 ATS and 0-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog. They are led by G Bubu Benjamin, who is averaging 16.5 PPG.
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Tarleton State at Baylor odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college basketball odds Lines last updated at 7:58 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Off the board
- Against the spread (ATS): Tarleton State +29.5 (-110) | Baylor -29.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 143.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
- Tarleton State +4000 (bet $100 to win $4,000)
- Baylor -50000 (bet $50,000 to win $100)
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Tarleton State at Baylor picks and predictions
Prediction
Baylor 83, Tarleton State 50
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no reason to consider the moneyline here. Baylor is far too expensive of a favorite and the Texans have struggled too much to think they can pull off the upset.
Against the spread
BET BAYLOR -29.5 (-110).
Baylor has dominated weaker opponents, throttling Sam Houston St. by 37 points in its last matchup. It is 1-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite and 1-0 ATS at home. The Bears’ efficiency should help it pull away. Both its top scorers shoot at least 50% from the field.
Tarleton State has losses against the SMU Mustangs and Florida State, dropping those games by 34 and 20 points. Baylor will be its strongest opponent yet, and it failed to cover in both those games prior. Considering those trends, take BAYLOR -29.5 (-110).
Over/Under
BET OVER 143.5 (-110).
The Texans are 2-1 O/U and averaged 57 PPG against SMU and FSU. Assuming they put up that number, Baylor needs to get to around 90.
The Bears, in their lone game as a double-digit favorite, put up 104 points on Sam Houston St. They have an electric and fast-paced offense. Expect a high-scoring game and take OVER 143.5 (-110).
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