Tag: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners odds predictions pick betting line spread

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Tampa Bay Rays (66-66) and Seattle Mariners (67-66) meet for the finale of a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tampa Bay leads 3-2

Tampa escaped with a 3-2 win over Seattle Tuesday while covering as a +149 road underdog. The Rays scored 3 runs in the 7th and 8th innings to come back from down 1-0 and survive a late push by the Mariners. 1B Yandy Diaz went 2-of-4 at the plate and hit the HR to take the lead in the 8th.

The win ended a streak of back-to-back losses for Tampa while simultaneously ending a streak of back-to-back wins for the Mariners.

Rays at Mariners projected starters

LHP Tyler Alexander vs. RHP Luis Castillo

Alexander (5-3, 5.22 ERA) makes his 18th appearance and 8th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 81 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 7-3 lioss to Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
  • Career vs. Mariners: 0-1, 6.20 ERA, 20 1/3 IP, 14 ER, 26 H, 5 BB, 23 K in 6 appearances (4 starts)

Castillo (10-12, 3.66 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 159 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 9 K in a 6-5 win over San Francisco Friday
  • Career vs. Tampa Bay: 0-1, 6.75 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 5 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 1 start

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Rays at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Rays +144 (bet $100 to win $144) | Mariners -172 (bet $172 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-150) | Mariners -1.5 (+126)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Rays at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5, Mariners 3

Moneyline

PASS.

I slightly lean toward the Rays to cover here as (+144) underdogs, but their odds are slightly safer on the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET RAYS +1.5 (-150).

Tampa Bay is the slightly hotter team entering this matchup, being 7-3 in its last 10 overall while the Mariners are 4-6 over that same span. The Rays are also 4-2 in their last 6 vs. Seattle.

Tampa has also been the much better ATS team, being 36-28 ATS on the road while the Mariners are only 28-40 ATS at home and 54-79 ATS overall.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7 (-110).

The Over is 5-3-2 in Seattle’s last 10 overall and is 5-3-2 in the last 10 meetings between these 2 squads. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Tampa’s last 6 wins vs. the Mariners.

In a matchup where the O/U has been even for both teams individually and in recent matchups between these squads, it is unlikely that the Under will hit for the 3rd-straight game.

This is a lean because the Under has hit in each of the last 2 Tampa-Seattle matchups and because the Under has hit in 3-straight for Tampa Bay.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Tampa Bay Rays (65-65) and Seattle Mariners (66-65) begin a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is set for 9:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rays lead 2-1

The Rays lost 7-3 in the series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday, before an exciting tiebreaking 2-run HR by Jose Caballero in the top of the 10th on Saturday for a 9-8 win, as the Over easily cashed. The Rays lost 3-1 in a pitcher’s duel Sunday.

The Over was 2-1 in the series in L.A., but the Under is still 7-4-1 across the past 12 games for the Rays.

For the Mariners, they responded Friday with a 6-5 win over the San Francisco Giants in the 1st game under interim manager Dan Wilson following the dismissal of Scott Servais Thursday. The Giants eked out a 4-3 win on Saturday, and Seattle won 4-3 on Sunday in a 3rd consecutive 1-run game as the total (7) pushed at most shops. The Over is on a 6-1-2 run for the Mariners in the past 9 outings.

These teams met in St. Petersburg for a 3-game set June 24-26, with the Rays winning 2 of the 3 outings. The Over cashed in the middle game, while the total pushed at most shops in the opener and finale.

Rays at Mariners projected starters

RHP Ryan Pepiot vs. RHP Bryce Miller

Pepiot (7-5, 3.65 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 98 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 4-2 road victory vs. Oakland Athletics Wednesday
  • 2024 road splits: 4-2, 3.50 ERA (36 IP, 14 ER), 1.06 WHIP, .205 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 11 BB, 38 K in 7 starts
  • 2024/career vs. Mariners: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 5-2 home setback June 26

Miller (9-7, 3.32 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 143 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (2 solo HR), 2 BB, 5 K in 6-3 road setback vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday
  • 2024 home splits: 5-3, 2.09 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 0.91 WHIP, .188 OBA, 4 HR, 18 BB, 86 K in 13 starts
  • Has never faced Giants

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Rays at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 7:18 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Rays +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Mariners -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-220) | Mariners -1.5 (+180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Rays at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 3, Rays 2

Moneyline

The MARINERS (-120) are worth playing lightly in the series opener. This could be a surprisingly well-pitched game between Pepiot and Miller.

Seattle has picked up the pace a little bit on offense lately, but pitching still has been an issue. However, the M’s are 5-3 across Miller’s past 8 outings, and he has allowed 3 or fewer ER in 8 of the previous 9 starts.

Run line/Against the spread

The Rays +1.5 (-220) will set you back more than 2 times your potential return, if you require a little extra insurance, and can’t bring yourself to back Tampa Bay straight up.

That’s too much risk for not enough reward, even if you fold Tampa Bay into a multi-leg parlay.

AVOID.

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Over/Under

UNDER 7 (-110) is also worth playing lightly. Go with a half-unit play at the most.

We’re going a bit against the trends here, as the Over is 6-1-2 in the past 9 games for the Mariners, but the Under is 5-4-1 in the past 10 home outings, however.

For the Rays, they cashed high in 2 of 3 games in Los Angeles, but the Under is still 13-6-1 in 20 outings in the month of August.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Tampa Bay Rays (57-28) and the Seattle Mariners (38-42) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rays lead 1-0 after Friday’s 15-4 rout in the series opener

The Rays have posted 3 consecutive victories, and the 15-run outburst Friday was the highest offensive output for Tampa Bay since scoring 17 runs in a victory in Boston Aug. 13, 2020.

Tampa Bay has picked up 40 wins in the past 58 tries against teams with a losing record, while going 6-2 in the past 8 road games against a right-handed starter.

The Mariners have dropped 3 straight games, allowing 8.7 runs per game (RPG) during the skid. Seattle hasn’t lost 4 in a row since April 26-29. The 15 runs allowed Friday marked the 6th time this season the M’s pitching staff has yielded double-digit runs.

Seattle is 0-4 in the past 4 in Game 2 of a series, and it is 3-9 in the past 12 tries against teams from the American League East Division.

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Rays at Mariners projected starters

RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. RHP George Kirby

Glasnow (2-1, 4.45 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 13.4 K/9 in 30 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, season-high 12 K in a 3-1 home win vs. the Kansas City Royals last Sunday
  • 2023 road splits: 1-0, 3.38 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 4 ER) with a .250 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts

Kirby (6-7, 3.26 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 0.7 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 94 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 1/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 3-2 road loss vs. the Baltimore Orioles last Sunday
  • 2023 home splits: 4-2, 3.19 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 15 ER – 5 HR) with a .239 OBA in 7 starts

Rays at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Rays -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+145) | Mariners +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Rays at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Rays 3

Moneyline

The MARINERS (+100) are a solid value in Saturday’s game at even-money, as Seattle looks to avenge Friday’s lopsided loss.

The Rays (-120) beat the brakes off of Seattle in the opener, but Kirby has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.19 ERA across 42 1/3 IP. He has had his issues lately on the road, but he can be trusted to pitch the M’s back into the win column in this middle game of the set.

Run line/Against the spread

If you don’t want to trust the MARINERS +1.5 (-175) straight up, they’re not priced out of line if you’d like a little insurance catching the run-and-a-half.

Seattle is 6-2 on the run line as an underdog in the past 8 tries, while winning 5 of those outings outright.

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Over/Under

The UNDER 7.5 (-115) is worth a look in Game 2.

The Under is 13-5-1 in the past 19 games on the road for the Rays, while going 11-5-1 in the past 17 away games against a right-handed starting pitcher.

For the Mariners, the Over has dominated lately, but the Under cashed for Kirby last time out, and the total has gone low in 8 of his past 12 outings overall.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The struggling Seattle Mariners (12-13) host the Tampa Bay Rays (15-10) for the opener of a 4-game series at T-Mobile Park Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa Bay is coming off a 3-game road sweep of the Oakland Athletics and is 6-2 overall in its last 8 games. Seattle has lost 7 of its last 8, including getting swept in 3 at the Houston Astros Monday through Wednesday.

Season series: Tampa Bay leads 2-1 but were outscored 11-9.

Rays at Mariners projected starters

LHP Shane McClanahan vs. LHP Robbie Ray

McClanahan (1-2, 3.00 ERA) lost at home to the Minnesota Twins 9-1 Saturday, surrendering 3 ER in 5 IP on 4 H, 2 HR and 2 BB with 11 K. He has a 2.80 FIP, 1.00 WHIP and an MLB-best 14.0 K/9 in 27 IP over 5 starts.

  • 2021 vs. Mariners: One start – a no-decision, 6-2 extra-inning, Rays road loss in mid-June – 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K.

Ray (2-2, 4.15 ERA) took a 3-1 loss at the Miami Marlins Saturday. He went 5 IP with 3 ER on 4 H, 4 BB and 8 K. He has a 4.38 FIP, 1.25 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 in 30 1/3 IP over 5 starts.

  • 2021 vs. Rays: 2-2 with a 2.33 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 6 HR, 0.85 WHIP and 11.9 K/9 across 6 starts while pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays.
  • vs. Rays on the current roster: 3.81 FIP with a .203 expected batting average, .276 expected wOBA, .361 expected slugging percentage, 29.9 K% and 90.9 mph exit velocity in 157 plate appearances.

Rays at Mariners odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:11 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Rays -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+133) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Rays at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5, Mariners 2

Money line

GIMME the RAYS (-135).

They’ve been steamed up from a -110 opener by sharp-line movement (per VegasInsider.com) and they are better in the three most important phases: Starting and relief pitching and hitting.

The Rays’ hitting ranks ahead of the Mariners vs. left-handed pitching in wOBA (.328-.321) and wRC+ (125-119), according to FanGraphs.

Also, Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranks 5th in FIP (3.27), 6th in WAR (1.3) and 3rd in hard-hit rate (34.3%). Seattle’s bullpen is 22nd in FIP (3.72), 21st in WAR (0.4) and 10th in hard-hit rate (37.6%).

Finally, McClanahan has Cy Young-caliber stuff and is coming off a subpar performance by his standards, whereas Ray has struggled to match his 2021 AL Cy Young-winning form.

BET RAYS (-135).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Rays’ -1.5 (+133) price isn’t a fat enough payout since I’m high on the Mariners for the season and Seattle has its ace on the mound with a lineup that ranks really well in advanced hitting categories.

Over/Under

PASS.

Both lineups are very good, but the Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 Rays-Mariners meetings and the weather forecast is predicting double-digit mph winds blowing in from left-center field.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (37-36) look to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays (43-29) in their four-game series finale Sunday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle won the first three games of this series by a combined score of 17-11. The Mariners won 6-5 Saturday when RF Mitch Haniger hit a walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the 10th.

Season series: Mariners lead 3-0.

LHP Shane McClanahan makes the 10th start of his rookie season for the Rays. He is 2-2 with a 4.42 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-0, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 4 K Tuesday at the Chicago White Sox.

LHP Marco Gonzales is on the mound for the Mariners. Gonzales is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through eight starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Seattle’s 4-3 win over the Minnesota Twins Monday.
  • vs. Rays on the current roster: 22 at-bats with a .273/.304/.409 slash line, 8/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Rays at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Mariners +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+100) | Mariners +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Mariners 4, Rays 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the MARINERS (+135) for a quarter unit only because the better value is with Seattle’s run line price, but the gist of my handicap is that Tampa Bay shouldn’t be this big of a favorite.

The Rays are the defending AL Champions and are again one of the best teams in baseball but Seattle has performed much better than its Spring Training expectations thus far.

The Mariners are 22-15 at home, have won five of their last six home games and Gonzales has pitched well in Seattle’s ballpark since joining the Mariners in 2017.

Gonzales has an 18-9 career record with a 3.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB rate at Seattle’s ballpark (formerly named Safeco Field), all of which are better than his career averages.

Furthermore, Seattle’s lineup has been more productive at the plate recently. Over the past two weeks, Mariners hitters are top-10 in WAR and wRC+ and ahead of the Rays in both metrics.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

TAKE the MARINERS +1.5 (-120) for 1 unit because Seattle has the third-best run line record at home this season and is 18-7 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-110) for a half unit because it’s a “contrarian play” against a betting market in which has 90% of the action on the Over, according to Pregame.com.

More importantly, both lineups are in the bottom-10 of advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA, OPS and hard-hit rate, and both bullpens are top-7 in WAR and FIP.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (43-28) and Seattle Mariners (36-36) play the third of a four-game set Saturday with a 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Josh Fleming is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays. He is 6-4 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 5.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 56 1/3 IP over 5 starts and 6 relief appearances.

Fleming allowed one walk in four hitless, scoreless innings against the Orioles Sunday, and he earned the victory. He has won four of his past five starts and five of his previous six decisions dating back to May 6.

RHP Logan Gilbert is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 2-2 with a 4.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 28 1/3 IP over 6 starts.

Gilbert allowed one earned run and four hits with one walk and six strikeouts across a career-high 6 2/3 innings in a win Sunday in Cleveland. He has won two straight starts and the first two of his career.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Rays at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+110) | Mariners +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Mariners 5, Rays 4

Money line (ML)

MARINERS (+120) is the play again Saturday as they continue to give the Rays (-145) fits in Seattle. The M’s took Friday’s game by a 5-1 count, and they have won each of the first two in the series. They should gain the series win with a victory behind Gilbert.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARINERS +1.5 (-135) aren’t too terribly expensive if you don’t trust them straight up and would like a little insurance. Seattle has covered the run line in six of the past seven games – either as a favorite or underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8 (-110) is the lean as you can’t expect a pitcher’s duel with two young hurlers on the bump. While we had just six total runs Saturday, the Over did cash in the opener Thursday. The Over has cashed in three straight starts by Gilbert, too.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (43-27) continue their four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (35-36) Friday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle stole Thursday’s series opener 6-5 with a two-run bottom of the 9th rally capped off by a walk-off single by 3B Kyle Seager off of Rays RP Pete Fairbanks.

Season series: Mariners lead 1-0.

RHP Michael Wacha is on the rubber for the Rays. He is 1-1 with a 4.54 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 over seven starts and four relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 0 K against the Baltimore Orioles Sunday.

LHP Yusei Kikuchi makes his 13th start for the Mariners. He is 3-3 with a 3.67 ERA (73 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Seattle’s 5-4 loss Saturday at the Cleveland Indians.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Rays at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+145) | Mariners +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Mariners 4, Rays 1

Money line (ML)

GIMME the MARINERS (+100) for 1 unit as a “contrarian play” against a market solidly behind the Rays despite their issues hitting left-handed pitching and because the Mariners are an underrated squad with a 20-15 home record.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the money is on Tampa Bay since the Rays are the best team in the AL East but Wacha is at best a “back of the rotation” starter whose advanced pitching numbers are terrible.

For instance, he grades in the 14th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, opponent’s expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, barrel rate and whiff rate.

Also, Tampa Bay’s lineup really struggles against left-handed pitching and nine of Kikuchi’s 12 outings were quality starts. The Rays have a bottom-7 lineup in several advanced hitting metrics such as wOBA, wRC+ and OPS.

Furthermore, Seattle has a solid bullpen (seventh in WAR) and moved to 15-7 in one-run games with Thursday’s win. There’s more value in the MARINERS (+100) at a coin-flip price.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since both Seattle’s full game and First 5 Innings run lines are out of my price range and Tampa is too good of a road team to try something risky like laying it on the Mariners’ alternate run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-115) for a quarter unit as another “fade the market” play since a majority of the action is on the Over because the situational trends point to this being a higher-scoring affair.

However, I like how the Mariners’ pitching staff matches up with the Rays offense and Seattle’s ballpark is notoriously pitcher-friendly.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (43-26) and Seattle Mariners (34-36) open a four-game set Thursday with a 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Rich Hill is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays. He is 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 66 2/3 IP over 13 starts.

Hill coughed up 4 ER, 4 H and 3 BB with 5 K in his most recent showing against Baltimore Saturday. He had won four of his previous five starts prior to that outing, however.

RHP Justin Dunn is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 1-3 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 in 48 1/3 IP over 10 starts.

Dunn was tagged for 5 ER, 9 H and 2 BB in just 3 IP in a loss at Cleveland Friday. He has dropped his last three decisions and hasn’t won in eight starts dating to April 15 in Baltimore.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Rays at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Mariners +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (-105) | Mariners +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Rays 6, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

RAYS (-175) are a little on the expensive side, but they’re the play in this one. Dunn cannot be trusted, as he hasn’t had much in the way of success. The southpaw veteran Hill has been the exact opposite, pitching with a lot of consistency with the exception of his most recent outing, but he’ll bounce back.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The RAYS -1.5 (-105) are a much better play on the run line at near even money. Tampa Bay has won by two or more runs in 11 of their past 12 victories. Hill has been on the mound for three of those victories, winning by two or more in two.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8 (-120) is the lean, ever so slightly. The Over is 7-1-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 10 as a road favorite, and 16-3-2 in the last 21 on the road against a right-handed starter. The Over is 4-1 in Seattle’s last five as an underdog, too.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Joe Williams on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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