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The Tampa Bay Rays (82-54) and the Cleveland Guardians (66-70) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 3-2
The Rays have dropped a pair of 1-run games in the 1st 2 games of this series, including a 3-2 loss in the series opener Friday with ace RHP Tyler Glasnow on the bump.
The Guardians posted the 7-6 win in 11 innings on Saturday, as OF Steven Kwan had a sacrifice fly to drive in the winning run. The Guardians have won 4 straight games, all as an underdog, tying the longest win streak of the season.
Cleveland has climbed back to within 5 games of the Minnesota Twins in the AL West Division. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has slipped 2 1/2 games back of the Baltimore Orioles for 1st place in the AL East.
Rays at Guardians projected starters
RHP Taj Bradley vs. RHP Xzavion Curry
Bradley (5-7, 5.67 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 in 74 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 4 K in a 17-4 road loss vs. the Houston Astros on July 29
- 2023 road splits: 2-4, 5.49 ERA (41 IP, 25 ER), 8 HR, 1.51 WHIP, .267 opponent batting average (OBA) in 9 starts
Curry (3-3, 4.10 ERA) makes his 9th start and 34th overall appearance. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 79 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 2 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 10-6 road loss vs. the Minnesota Twins Monday
- 2023 home splits: 2-1, 3.00 ERA (42 IP, 14 ER), 2 HR, 1.17 WHIP, .240 OBA in 4 starts and 13 relief appearances
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Rays at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Guardians +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+120) | Guardians +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Rays at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 6, Rays 4
The GUARDIANS (+120) are a solid play behind Curry, as Cleveland looks to cap off the surprising 3-game sweep of the contending Rays (-145).
I don’t trust Bradley, who returns from Triple-A Durham to make the start Sunday. He hasn’t pitched in the bigs since late July. After being banished to run with the Bulls, Bradley had a modicum of success, posting a 2.91 ERA in 21 2/3 IP in 5 minor-league starts. Still, we need to see him do it at the major-league level on a consistent basis before trusting him again.
Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-145) is a decent play if you just can’t fathom the idea of another Cleveland win for the 3-game sweep. I like Curry, and think the pitching edge is tipped in Cleveland’s favor. However, if you would like a little insurance, the Guardians aren’t priced out of line.
Over/Under
OVER 9 (+100) is the lean, but go lightly.
No one will confuse a Bradley vs. Curry matchup for a pitcher’s duel. Both of these pitchers should cough up plenty of runs.
The Over is 3-2 in the last 5 games for Tampa Bay and 9-4 in the last 13 games. For Cleveland, the Over has a slight 4-3 edge across the last 7 games. The Over cashed in Curry’s start in St. Petersburg against the Rays on Aug. 11, too.
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