Tag: tale of the tape

Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Texas A&M

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show the Auburn has an even stronger chance to earn a win than the experts believe?

The Auburn Tigers (4-6) will hope to further create some momentum going into the Iron Bowl as they try to keep their postseason hopes alive against Texas A&M (8-2) at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday.

Auburn is its fourth win of the season against UL Monroe last week. Hugh Freeze’s squad is now two wins away from a postseason birth, although both of those wins will have to come against College Football Playoff hopeful SEC teams. The first of those Playoff hopefuls, Texas A&M, is looking to earn a road victory on the Plains that could put the Aggies back into the 12-team Playoff field next Tuesday.

Auburn may be having a much more difficult 2024 than the Aggies, but the Tigers enter Saturday’s showdown as just 2.5-point underdogs according to BetMGM. ESPN FPI also sees this game as a toss up, as the Hugh Freeze’s Tigers enter Saturday with a 42.3% chance to pull of the upset according to the Football Power Index.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show the Auburn has an even stronger chance to earn a win than the experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.

Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne played his best game as a Tiger last week against UL Monroe. The senior threw for 286 yards and a career-high 5 touchdowns in the victory. Over the six starts, the former Michigan State Spartan has thrown for just over 230 yards per game, 11 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. He hasn’t been flashy, but Thorne has quietly become a very consistent quarterback in Hugh Freeze’s offense.

On the other side, Texas A&M freshman Marcel Reed has been sensational since relieving incumbent starter Conner Weigman of his duties early in the season. The Nashville, TN native has brought harmony to the Aggies offense, composing his way to 1,504 total yards and 15 total touchdowns in just eight games, five of which he has started. The young quarterback may be much less experienced than Thorne and most of the signal callers in the conference, but his ability to get his team into the end zone multiple times per game with his arm and his legs gives him the edge over Thorne on Saturday.

The offensive skill position margin is close as well. Texas A&M star running back Le’Veon Moss may have been the best overall player in this game had he not suffered a season-ending knee injury earlier this month, but the Aggies still have plenty to offer on the offensive side of the ball. Backup running back Amari Daniels has doesn’t have the “big play” ability of Moss, but the junior has quietly ran for 5.9 yards per carry and 7 touchdowns this season. The Aggies pass catching trio of Noah Thomas (390 yards), Jabre Barber (281 yards), and Cyrus Allen (269 yards) may not have the statistics of Auburn’s pass catching quartet, but that may be more due to the fact the Aggies have not felt the need to throw the football in many games this season.

Auburn on the other hand has needed to air it out, and the numbers of KeAndre Lambert-Smith (761 yards), Malcolm Simmons (412 yards), Cam Coleman (392 yards), and Rivaldo Fairweather (297 yards) reflect that. If you add in the production of running back Jarquez Hunter (1,015 yards), Auburn’s skill position weapons have highly out-produced the Aggies skill players. The talent gap is not nearly as wide as the numbers suggest, but the pure production is too lopsided to not give Auburn the edge in this category.

On the defensive side, things are about as close to even as you can get. Both squads have held the opposition to well under 20 points per game this season, while showing improvement as the year has rolled along. The Aggies have created nearly double (14) the turnovers Auburn (8) has, but Auburn has sacked the quarterback 23 times, compared to A&M’s 21. Keldric Faulk and Jalen McLeod are the best two pass rushers in this contest, while A&M has the best defensive back in sophomore cornerback Marcus Ratcliffe. Factor in Auburn’s home-field advantage, and the battle is too murky to give either unit the edge entering Saturday.

After taking a look at the tale of the tape, this game seems about as close as the experts believe it will be. If Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne can play a solid and clean football game, the Tigers may be able to keep their postseason hopes alive, while eliminating the Aggies from Playoff contention in the process.

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Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. UL Monroe

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show the Warhawks have a bigger opportunity to shock the world than experts believe?

The Auburn Tigers (3-6) will attempt to start begin the final month of the regular season on a high note when they host UL Monroe (5-4) at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday.

Auburn is coming off one of it’s worst losses of the season against Vanderbilt. The loss not only dropped the Tigers back to three games under the .500 mark, but forced Auburn into needing to win its final three games in order to qualify for a bowl game. Louisiana Monroe on the other hand is one game away from postseason contention. The Warhawks last won 6 games in 2018, and have only appeared in one bowl game in school history, the Independence Bowl, over a decade ago in 2012.

Auburn’s season may not be going the way anyone within the program hoped, but the Tigers talent still has them tabbed as 24.5-point favorites to capture win number four this week according to BetMGM. ESPN FPI agrees with the sports books assessment of this matchup, as the Power Index gives Auburn a 92.6% chance to take home a victory.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show the Warhawks have a bigger opportunity to shock the world than experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.

Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne has struggled throughout his time on the Plains, but is playing relatively good football in the second half of 2024. Over the last five contests, the senior has thrown for 225 yards per game, 6 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. While the personal numbers have been fine, Auburn’s offense has only eclipsed 20 points twice in those five games.

The senior hasn’t been bad, but Thorne has not been good enough to help carry an Auburn offense to points on the scoreboard, or more importantly. wins. On the season, Thorne has thrown for 1,825 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.

On the other side, UL Monroe sophomore Aiden Armenta has been serviceable, but not exceptional, since taking over the starting signal caller job from General Booty. The Albuquerque, NM native has thrown for 898 yards in five starts and parts of three other games this season, accumulating 8 total touchdowns and 8 interceptions. While neither quarterback’s stats exactly “jump off the page”, Thorne clearly has the edge.

The offensive skill player gap is ever more lopsided. The Warhawks do have a stud freshman running back in Ahmad Hardy, who has rushed for exactly 2 more yards (915) than Auburn star Jarquez Hunter (913) has rushed for this season, but the similarities between the skill players stop beyond that. Auburn’s top pass catching quartet of KeAndre Lambert-Smith (657 yards), Malcolm Simmons (349 yards), Cam Coleman (292 yards), and Rivaldo Fairweather (267 yards) have all out produced UL Monroe’s top pass catcher Davon Wells (232 yards) this season.

If you add in the fact Auburn’s starting offensive line is simply bigger and brings more big game experience than UL Monroe’s front five, and the Tigers have a massive edge in just about every category heading into this matchup on Saturday.

On the defensive side, things aren’t very close either. The Warhawks defense has given up just under 5 touchdowns per contest in four road games this season, while Auburn’s defense, which has seemingly improved every week, has yet to allow more than 19 points to a non-conference opponent this season. DJ Durkin’s unit has given up just 16 points per game over the last three contests against SEC competition, giving the unit the clear edge over UL Monroe’s resistance, which has struggled mightily in the Sun Belt.

After taking a look at the tale of the tape, it’s clear Auburn has the edge in every major category ahead of this matchup. The only plausible reason the Tigers aren’t favored by even more probably lies in the fact Auburn has been prone to beating itself many times in the Hugh Freeze era.

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Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Kentucky

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show the wrong side is favored on Saturday?

The Auburn Tigers (2-5) will attempt to put an end to a brutal losing stretch this weekend when they travel to Lexington, KY to face off against the Kentucky Wildcats (3-4) Saturday evening.

Auburn has lost four-straight SEC contests entering its final road game of the campaign. While the Tigers are only one of seven teams in the country to accumulate at least 6.5 yards per play on the offensive end while holding opponents to under 5.0 yards per snap on the defensive side, Hugh Freeze’s squad is just 2-5 and on the brink of postseason elimination with five contests left to play. Kentucky on the other hand is just one game better, but has the opportunity to put itself well aligned for a bowl game with a victory over the Tigers this weekend.

Auburn’s inability to win close football games along with Kentucky’s home-field advantage and more consistent play have the Wildcats as slight, 2.5-point, favorites entering this matchup according to BetMGM. ESPN FPI seems to be in agreeance with the sports books, as the Index gives Kentucky a 51.3% chance to tame the Tigers on Saturday.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show the wrong side is favored on Saturday?? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.

Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne has taken a step forward in his second season on the Plains, although his play still leaves much to be desired, specifically when it comes to taking care of the football and putting away games. The senior has thrown for 1,414 yards this season. Accumulating 11 touchdowns through the air and another 2 on the ground. Unfortunately his 5 early season interceptions put a damper on total of 6 throws to the opposition, casting a dark cloud on what has otherwise been a decent campaign.

Kentucky starter Brock Vandagriff has not been very good either. The junior has thrown for only 240-plus yards once this season, finding the end zone 6 times through the air while turning it over 4 times through 7 games. Vandagriff has been effective as a rusher, although his yardage total of 126 doesn’t indicate it at all considering he’s been sacked 15 times already this year. Neither quarterback in this contest brings much “game changing” ability to the table, although Thorne gets the advantage due to his slight edge in experience and big-play ability.

Auburn’s skill positions and offensive line also get the edge in Saturday’s game. Jarquez Hunter and the Auburn rushing attack has been phenomenal this season. Hunter is currently fifth in the SEC in rush yards despite receiving under 100 total carries so far, while the Auburn rushing attack as a group has averaged just under 5 yards per attempt. Kentucky on the other hand is averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Without a clear star in the backfield and a dominant offensive line, the Wildcats offense has struggled to move the ball on the ground this season.

The gap is even wider through the air. While Auburn star wide out KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Kentucky star Dane Key both have about 500 receiving yards through the air this season, Lambert-Smith has managed his total while co-existing with Malcolm Simmons (289 yardds), Cam Coleman (259 yards), Rivaldo Fairweather (191 yards), Perry Thompson (123 yards), and Robert Lewis (113 yards). On the other side, only two Wildcats have surpassed the century mark in receiving yardage behind Key this season, with Barion Brown (270 yards) being the lone receiver to do so. Auburn has a clear edge on the offensive side of the ball in this game.

Defensively, the story flips dramatically. Kentucky has managed three victories this season almost completely because of a defense that leads the FBS in “havoc rate”. The Wildcats are coming off a season-worst 48-20 defeat against Florida, but the defense has been an elite unit other than that blip. Auburn’s defense has trended in a different direction, as the Tigers have gotten better every week, although DJ Durkin’s unit is still far from where it hopes to be by season’s end. The defensive edge goes to the Wildcats, although the gap is closer after last week.

In the end, this game seems about as close to a toss-up as an SEC matchup can be. Kentucky’s position as slight favorites seems to be the correct one, but Auburn should be viewed as more of a close counterpart than underdog.

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Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Missouri

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a better chance to earn its first road win than experts believe?

The Auburn Tigers (2-4) will try to right the ship coming off a bye week when they head to Columbia, MO to take on the Missouri Tigers (5-1) this Saturday afternoon.

Auburn lost three-straight SEC contests before the bye, suffering a season-worst 31-13 loss to Georgia in Athens most recently. Missouri on the other hand has enjoyed a fair amount of success for the second-straight year, although the Tigers have looked shaky-at-best in SEC play. Brady Cook, Luther Burden III, and the Tigers are talented, but a near double overtime loss at home against Vanderbilt followed by a discouraging 41-10 result in College Station shows Missouri is very vulnerable.

Vulnerable or not, Missouri is in a much better spot than Auburn entering this week seven matchup. Because of that, along with the home-field advantage, Missouri is favored by 4.5 points heading into Saturday according to BetMGM. ESPN FPI likes the home team’s chances as well, as the Power Index gives the Tigers a 67.9% chance to improve to 6-1 after this weekend.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a better chance to earn its first road win than experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.

Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne is likely in line to retain his starting job for the remainder of the season after a brief benching in favor of freshman Hank Brown. Over the course of 4 starts and a second half relief appearance against Arkansas, the senior has accumulated 1,238 passing yards, 12 total touchdown, and 6 interceptions. Thorne did play his best game of the year three short weeks ago against Oklahoma before playing a turnover free game against Georgia, showing the senior may be turning the corner on the Plains.

On the other side, Missouri has one of the elite quarterback options in not only the SEC, but the entire country in senior Brady Cook. The senior from St. Louis is coming off a near 30 touchdown season in which he threw for over 3,000 yards and rushed for 300 more. Cook has followed up a fantastic 2023 campaign with a solid start to 2024. In six games, Missouri’s leader has thrown for 1,351 yards while scoring 11 touchdowns and turning the ball over just once. Cook isn’t quite on pace to surpass his gaudy statistical totals from last season, but he still is far and away the better quarterback in Saturday’s contest.

The offensive skill position battle is much closer. Auburn’s pass catchers as a unit get the slight edge over their Tiger counterparts, but future NFL second day draft pick Luther Burden III is clearly the best receiving option in this game. Burden III is a big-play, electrifying receiver with game breaking ability. Much like Auburn’s KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Burden III is not built like a prototypical “WR1”, but his 5-foot-11 frame only adds to his quickness and downhill speed ability. The junior isn’t the only elite option at Brady Cook’s deposal, as senior wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. actually leads Missouri in receiving yardage (407 yards to Burden III’s 398), giving the Tigers a fantastic one-two punch on the outside.

Auburn’s receivers stack up well, although Cam Coleman’s inability to stay on the field paired with the inconsistencies of Robert Lewis and Malcolm Simmons give Missouri the slight edge in the pass catching department. Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter is the clear top runner in this matchup however, giving Hugh Freeze’s Tigers an advantage they desperately need on the offensive side of the ball.

On the defensive end, things are almost equally as even. Auburn’s defense has taken a major step back after the unit was the strength of the team a season ago. In four games against Power 4 competition, DJ Durkin’s defense is allowing 25.75 points per game, most recently allowing 31 points in Athens against Georgia. Missouri’s defense has been slightly worse, albeit in one less game. In three games against Boston College, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt, the Tigers have given up 92 points. Missouri doesn’t offer many game breakers on the defensive end, although every starting defensive back has gobbled up exactly one interception. The 2-4 Tigers are much of the same way, although cornerback Kayin Lee is probably the most likely player in this game to have a successful professional career in the NFL.

After taking a look at the tale of the tape, this battle of Tiger teams is fairly even in terms of the X’s and O’s. The difference in this game is likely going to come down to the home-field advantage and superior quarterback play on Brady Cook, making this 4.5-point spread seem like a fair line.

Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on  X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Brian on Twitter @TheRealBHauch

Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Georgia

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a better chance to shock the college football world than believe?

The Auburn Tigers (2-3) head on the road for the first time this season to square off against their toughest opponent yet, the Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) this Saturday.

Both SEC squads are coming off losses, albeit in different fashion, a week ago. Auburn’s extremely disappointing start to the season continued with another afternoon of blown opportunities during a home loss to Oklahoma, while Georgia nearly completed a stunning comeback against rival Alabama before 17-year-old Ryan Williams sent “T-Town” into a frenzy with a game winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

Georgia’s loss was no doubt disheartening for Kirby Smart and his staff, but the Bulldogs clearly remain one of the top teams in the country. Auburn’s season meanwhile is in a full “torpedo” under Hugh Freeze in his second season at the helm, and hopes of even qualifying for a bowl game are on the brink.

The different direction of these two long-time SEC rivals, along with Georgia hosting Auburn on Saturday, have many experts giving the Tigers little-to-no chance on pulling off an upset in week five. BetMGM has the home team listed as 23.5-point favorites against Auburn, while ESPN”s Football Power Index doesn’t see Auburn opening October by putting a scare in Georgia either, as UGA has a 91.2% chance to take home the victory according to FPI.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a better chance to shock the college football world than experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.

Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne likely earned back his starting role for the remainder of the season after a solid 350 all-purpose-yard showing against Oklahoma last week. Unfortunately, turnovers have plagued Thorne in what has otherwise been an above-average, statistically productive season. In three starts and parts of two other games, Thorne has thrown for 1,038 yards and rushed for 125 more. The senior has 12 total touchdowns, but his 6 interceptions have left a real sour note on what has otherwise been a decent campaign.

On the other side, Georgia signal-caller Carson Beck comes into this contest with 1,119 passing yards and 10 passing touchdowns over 4 games. The senior has already thrown half of the interceptions (3) he did all of last season (6), but is otherwise on pace to at least finish with around the same impressive statistical marks he managed a year ago. While Beck has yet to find his groove in 2024, his track record in the SEC gives him the easy edge over Payton Thorne.

The skill position battle on the offensive side of the ball actually goes in favor of the Tigers. Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter is fantastic, and his 6.7 yards per carry this season is easily the best among any backs in this game. However, Bulldogs tail-back Trevor Etienne is nearly just as talented, and while the junior hasn’t been given as many opportunities as Hunter, he still averages 5.9 yards per attempt. Georgia’s pass catching trio of Arian Smith, Dominic Lovett, and Dillon Bell is also very talented, but has not outproduced the trio of KeAndre Lambert Smith (415 yards) Malcolm Simmons (214 yards) and Cam Coleman (212 yards) this season. Auburn’s skill players have a slight edge in this contest, although that edge could be nullified if Payton Thorne struggles to get his playmakers the football,

On the defensive side, Georgia is far and away the better unit, and it’s not very close at all. Auburn’s defense is not the same as it was a year ago when the Tigers nearly took down UGA at Jordan-Hare. The inexperience in the Auburn secondary has reared its head throughout the young season, while the defensive front seven, which was supposed to be the strength of DJ Durkin’s corps, has yet to make a significant impact.

Georgia on the other hand had not allowed an opponent to find the end zone before giving up 41 points to Alabama a week ago. The high-scoring game was more of an outlier than the norm, and it would not surprise anyone if the Bulldogs were able to hold Auburn without a touchdown on Saturday.

After taking a look at the tale of the tape, Auburn does have some glimmers of hope in this game, but a total mismatch on the defensive side of the ball makes it fairly clear Georgia should run away with a “get right” victory in week five, especially at home.

Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on  X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Brian on Twitter @TheRealBHauch

Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Oklahoma

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a better chance to earn a major home victory than people believe?

The Auburn Tigers (2-2) host their final home game until November this Saturday when Hugh Freeze’s squad welcomes Oklahoma (3-1) to the Plains for the first time as a SEC adversary.

Calling Auburn’s season a roller-coaster through a month of play would be a disservice to the amusement park rides we’ve come to know and love. The Tigers simply have not looked like a consistent football team through four games in 2024, making many fans contemplate whether Hugh Freeze is taking his team in the right direction through his season-plus as head coach.

On the other side, Oklahoma has been mostly successful through its inaugural campaign in the SEC. The Sooners did drop a home game to a very talented Tennessee team a week ago, but have otherwise looked dominant and ready to content for a spot in the 12-Team College Football Playoff by the time the dust of the regular season settles. Like Auburn however, Oklahoma has received inconsistent quarterback play, leading head coach Brent Venables to bench his star quarterback Jackson Arnold in favor of freshman Michael Hawkins Jr.

Despite the quarterback change and road matchup, BetMGM has the Sooners listed as 2.5-point favorites in Jordan-Hare Stadium this weekend. ESPN”s Football Power Index likes the Sooners chances of penciling off their first SEC win as a program as well, as the Index gives Oklahoma a 57.4% chance to send Tiger fans home with an extra roll of toilet paper.

The experts are projecting this game to be very close, but will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a better chance to earn a major home victory than people believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.

As mentioned above, both programs enter Saturday’s matchup with major question marks surrounding the quarterback room. Oklahoma will send out freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. to make his first career start in front of what should be an electric crowd at Jordan-Hare Stadium, while Auburn has yet to name a starter for Saturday.

Hawkins Jr. has taken very limited snaps as a college signal-caller, but looked good in relief of Jackson Arnold last Saturday against Tennessee. In total, the Dallas, TX native has completed 13 of 22 pass attempts for 149 yards and a touchdown. The 6-foot-1, 204-pound quarterback has also rushed for 32 yards on 14 attempts, although the yardage number is skewed because of 2 sacks.

On the Auburn side, Payton Thorne and Hank Brown have combined for 1,103 passing yards, 13 touchdowns through the air, and 8 interceptions. Brown hasn’t provided much of anything on the ground, while Thorne has rushed for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns on 24 carries. The issue with Auburn’s signal callers has not been the yardage totals and explosive plays, but the inability to take care of the football. Because of the turnover plague, it’s hard to give either Tiger quarterback the advantage until they prove they can play a clean game. Even with Oklahoma turning to a freshman on the road, Hawkins Jr. gets the slight advantage.

As for the skill position battle, Auburn has a clear advantage. Oklahoma has not been a very explosive offensive team this season, where Auburn has ranked second in the conference in plays of 20 yards or more. The Tigers have the skill players to blow games open, but the inability of the offense to take care of the football has not allowed them to do so. KeAndre Lambert-Smith is far and away the best pass catcher in this game, while Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter has shown he is the best back as well. Sooners junior wide receiver Deion Burks is a very good player, but Auburn’s pass catching quartet of KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Cam Coleman, Robert Lewis, and Malcolm Simmons are clearly the better unit in this game.

On the defensive side, the advantage is not as clear. The Sooners defensive unit has been adequate, but not outstanding through four games. Oklahoma has conceded just 14 points and 270 yards per game to opponents this season, while Auburn has been slightly worse, giving up almost 17 points per contest. The Sooners have played the harder schedule thus far as well, with games against Tennessee (4-0) , Tulane (2-2), and NC State (2-2) already over with. Oklahoma just played a fine defensive game against No. 5 ranked Tennessee, giving them a slight edge over an Auburn defense that has given up 20+ points to a pair of middling Power 4 programs in Cal and Arkansas.

After taking a look at the tale of the tape, this game seems about as even as the experts believe. Oklahoma boasts the better defense and offensive abilility to take care of the football, giving the Sooners the slight edge so long as they can continue to force Auburn’s offense into turnovers. If the Tigers can take care of the ball however, they may come out with a huge, “upset”, victory,

Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on  X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Brian on Twitter @TheRealBHauch

Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Arkansas

Auburn and Arkansas are very similar in many ways… who will have the advantage?

The Auburn Tigers (2-1) host their first conference matchup of the season this Saturday, as the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1) come to the Plains on homecoming at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Hugh Freeze’s squad enters SEC play fresh off an inconsistent roller-coaster of a non-conference schedule in which the Tigers went through two quarterbacks, stretches of defensive dominance, and ineffectiveness, and plenty of injuries. The team is mostly healthy heading into the most important part of the schedule however, and with new hope around freshman quarterback Hank Brown, the Tigers again have decently high expectations for 2024-2025.

On the other side, Arkansas has displayed an elite offensive attack led by junior transfer quarterback Taylen Green, but have shown the same defensive variabilities that have plagued the Tigers. With a close loss to No. 15 ranked Oklahoma State on their resume, the Hogs are slightly more battle-tested than Auburn, which may be why BetMGM currently displays Sam Pittman’s team as just a field goal underdog despite the difficult road test. ESPN”s Football Power Index sees this battle of middling SEC squads ending up as a nail-biter as well, as the FPI gives Auburn a 58.6% chance to improve to 3-1  heading into the final game of September.

This game will undoubtably be close, but will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Arkansas has a greater chance at spoiling Auburn’s homecoming than experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.

Hank Brown will lead the Tigers to battle for the second-straight week after seizing the starting signal-caller position from senior Payton Thorne in mid-September. The redshirt freshman is inexperienced, but has shown prowess in his short time commanding the Auburn offense. In one start and parts of two other games, the 6-foot-4 freshman has thrown for 463 yards, 6 touchdowns, and no interceptions. It may have been against inferior competition, but Hank Brown has looked the part of a very solid starting quarterback thus far.

As for Arkansas, Taylen Green brings plenty of experience, albeit non-SEC experience, to the Razorbacks offensive attack. During three seasons in Boise as a Boise State Bronco, the dual-threat quarterback managed 3,794 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions but was a real threat on the ground. The 6-foot-6, 230-pound bruiser of a quarterback ran for just north of 1,000 yards and 19 scores over the course of his two seasons as a starter. Green has continued to show his athleticism in his first three games as a Razorback. The Lewisville, TX native has thrown for 3 touchdowns this season while running in 4 more.

Green is a polarizing star Fayetteville has not seen at the quarterback position in a decent time. He gets the edge in the quarterback battle, for now at least.

The offensive skill position comparison is much closer. Both the Tigers and the Razorbacks possess a superstar, game-wrecking running back in the backfield. For the Tigers, that player is Jarquez Hunter, who is coming off a career-high 20 carries for 152 yards and a touchdown in week 3. Arkansas features senior back Ja’Quinden Jackson, who’s 397 rushing yards have him as the No. 1 rusher in the SEC and No. 5 in all of FBS. Jackson has also scored 6 times on the ground through 3 games, which is tied for the fourth most in the country.

As for the pass catchers, Arkansas’ senior Andrew Armstrong and his 301 receiving yards lead the way, but the Auburn receiving room as an entire product gets the edge. The trio of Cam Coleman, Robert Lewis, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith have all the talent in the world, but they will need to show it once the true season begins this week. Coleman himself is once again questionable for this game after missing week three with an injury. If he were to miss more time, Auburn’s edge in the skill position department grows thin, but for now, the Tigers have the advantage.

As for the defensive side of the ball, Auburn has the edge once again, but it is also closer than it should be. The Tigers were a dominant unit on the defensive side of the ball for almost every snap of 2023-2024, but have struggled to find consistency through the first 3 games of this season. Last season’s leading tackler Eugene Asante has just 5 wrap ups this season, while a once dominant Auburn secondary has become suspect at best after the departures of Jaylin Simpson, Nehemiah Pritchett, and DJ James.

As for Arkansas, the Razorbacks have yet to prove they could stop a towel from getting wet in the desert. The Hogs did hold first week opponent Arkansas-Pine Bluff to 0 points, but then proceeded to allow 39 points against Oklahoma State before nearly costing the team the game by allowing 27 points against UAB last week. Junior linebacker Xavian Sorey Jr. is a tackling machine, his 23 tackles this season rank fourth in the SEC, and sophomore defensive back TJ Metcalf is a solid player, but the Razorbacks struggle to find production beyond those two. Auburn gets the edge in the battle of middling defenses.

After a look at the tale of the tape, odds makers seem to have this game handicapped just about right. The matchups are very close across the board, but given Auburn’s home field advantage and slight edge on defense, the Tigers should come away with a win.

Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on  X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Brian on Twitter @TheRealBHauch

Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. New Mexico

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show New Mexico has a higher chance of dropping Auburn to 1-2 than the experts believe?

The Auburn Tigers (1-1) go to battle against Mountain West opponent New Mexico (0-2) on Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Auburn comes into the matchup with about as many question marks as its had under head coach Hugh Freeze, while New Mexico is equally looking for answers after an 0-2 start to the 2024 season under first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.

Payton Thorne and the Auburn offense struggled mightily in week two against Cal, while the story for New Mexico has been centered around the Lobos putrid defense that has allowed nearly 100 points in two weeks. With vastly different play styles and team archetypes, this matchup, while intriguing, favors the Tigers heavily.

Auburn is currently favored by exactly 4 touchdowns on BetMGM, and ESPN FPI likes the Tigers chances of getting back of .500 as well. The system gives Hugh Freeze’s squad a 93.5% chance to right the ship and earn a victory on Saturday night at Jordan-Hare.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show New Mexico has a higher chance of dropping Auburn to 1-2 than the experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.

After lighting the world on fire in Auburn’s week one win against Alabama A&M, Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne put himself in the “hot seat” after a four-interception performance in week two against California. Head coach Hugh Freeze has continued to employ confidence in his senior quarterback, but a season-plus of inconsistent play has raised the concerns of most Tiger fans. On the season, Thorne has thrown for 487 yards, five touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. The former Spartan has also battled his way through 92 yards on the ground, adding 2 more scores with his legs.

As for New Mexico’s signal-caller, sophomore quarterback Devon Dampier is not the reason his team has two losses to open up the season. In fact, he is far, far, from it. The Tucson, Arizona native is coming off an electric 390 all-purpose yard and 5-touchdown performance against No. 18 ranked Arizona. On the season, Dampier has thrown for 432 yards, rushed for 164 more, and scored 7 total touchdowns. Dampier’s numbers are eerily similar to that of Payton Thore, but considering the sophomore has turned the ball over two less times against tougher competition in both games, he gets the slight edge.

Auburn’s true edge on the offensive side of the ball in games against smaller schools normally comes from the “big boys” up front in the trenches, but that is not the case against the Lobos. New Mexico’s entire starting offensive line features transfers with plenty of experience in college football. Tevin Shaw (Houston) and Baraka Beckett (UCLA) bring Power Four experience protecting Devon Dampier’s blindside, while right guard Richard Pearce (East Carolina) and right tackle Wallace Unamba (FAU) are both 320-plus pound run blockers on the other side.

Auburn’s starting offensive line still holds up well in a pound-for-pound breakdown, but it’s closer than a game with a 28-point spread would suggest. The Tigers get the slight edge due to the pure talent of sophomore center Connor Lew and guards Dillon Wade and Jeremiah Wright.

The Tigers’ real edge on offense comes in the skill player department, where Hugh Freeze’s recruiting and transfer portal prowess comes to fruition. Jarquez Hunter, Cam Coleman, Robert Lewis, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Rivaldo Fairweather, Perry Thompson, or Malcolm Simmons would easily be the number one option on the Lobos offense. While New Mexico’s No. 1 receiver Luke Wysong is having himself a great start to the season (14 receptions, 224 yards, 1 touchdown), his numbers say more about Devon Dampier’s talent than his own.

At the end of the day, Auburn is favored by 4 touchdowns in Saturday’s game because of the grotesque gap on the defensive side of the ball. New Mexico’s defense allowed 35 points to an FCS program, albeit a good one, in week one. The Lobos then followed it up by showing virtually no resistance against a very good Arizona team in a “rivalry” game. If the Lobos defense was just average head coach Bronco Mendenhall would have at least his first win in the red and silver under his belt. Instead, he is coaching a defense that has allowed the third most points per game (48.00) in the entire FBS.

While Auburn’s defense has not received nearly the same amount of buzz it did a season ago, the unit is still lightyears ahead of New Mexico. The Tigers did surrender 21 points against Cal a week ago, but it could have been much worse considering the offense turned the ball over five times. Eugene Asante and the Auburn defense gave Payton Thorne’s offense every opportunity to win last weekend. They should do the same in week three.

After taking a look at the tale of the tape, it’s clear Auburn has an advantage in this contest, but it may be closer than most people believe. If Payton Thorne and the Tigers offense struggle to take advantage of a horrendous Lobos resistance, New Mexico can score enough to make this game interesting.

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Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Cal

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Cal has a higher chance of stalling Auburn’s momentum on the Plains than the experts believe?

The Auburn Tigers (1-0) take on ACC opponent California (1-0) on Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn comes into the matchup fresh off a 73-3 beatdown of FCS in-state “rival” Alabama A&M, while the Golden Bears took care of business in their opener as well, taking down UC Davis 31-13.

Hugh Freeze’s Tigers played about the most efficient game they could in week one. The new-look and heavily improved offense managed 9 touchdowns and a field goal, taking 6 plays or less on every single scoring drive. While the output was heavily impressive, Cal’s defense is sure to provide more resistance than the Bulldogs did a week ago.

Still, sports books like Auburn’s chances of improving to 2-0 on the young season, as the Tigers are favored by 12.5 points on BetMGM.

ESPN FPI likes the Tigers chances of staying undefeated as well, as the system gives Hugh Freeze’s squad an 81.4% chance to play well enough for the Auburn faithful to roll Toomers Corner after the dust has settled.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Cal has a higher chance of stalling Auburn’s momentum on the Plains than the experts believe? As we always, we’ll start by looking at the quarterbacks.

Auburn senior Payton Thorne played arguably his best game as a Tiger in week one. The former Michigan State Spartan threw for 322 yards and 4 touchdowns in the win over Alabama A&M, despite completing just 13 passes. The Naperville, IL native showed how well he can perform with solid playmakers around him during his time with Kenneth Walker II in East Lansing, and Tiger fans got a peak at his ceiling in last week’s victory.

On the other side, Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza comes into 2024 fresh off of a solid second-half performance to end last season. The redshirt sophomore did not play in last season’s Cal-Auburn matchup in Berkeley, but he took over the starting quarterback job shortly after and has been given the keys to the offense ever since. The former Miami Hurricane wasn’t fantastic in week one, but he was good enough to help the Golden Bears earn the win. In total, Mendoza completed 15 of 22 passes for 158 yards and a touchdown.

With the experience and the dual-threat ability on the side of Payton Thorne, Auburn earns the clear edge in the quarterback battle heading into this matchup on the Plains. As for the skill position battle, the talent gap is closer, but still leans in the direction of the Tigers.

Cal running back Jaydn Ott is an electric 6-foot, 200-pound playmaker with 4.46 40-speed and a nose for the end zone. The junior managed 70 yards and a touchdown when these programs matched up a year ago, but took 20 carries to get there. The problem, at least for the Golden Bears, is the talent on the offensive side is almost completely funneled through Ott. Last season’s leading receiver, Jeremiah Hunter, is now playing his football for Washington. Cal does return junior Trond Grizzell and sophomore Jack Endries, who combined for almost 900 receiving yards in 2023, but the room is fairly barren after that.

On the other side, Auburn features running back Jarquez Hunter, who is not far behind Cal tail back Jaydn Ott in terms of sheer talent. After Hunter, Auburn’s pass catchers simply have more talent and big-play ability than their Golden Bear counterparts. [autotag]KeAndre Lambert-Smith,[/autotag] [autotag]Cam Coleman[/autotag], [autotag]Perry Thompson[/autotag], and Malcolm Simmons combined for 6 touchdowns and 315 receiving yards in week one. That output is almost double that of Cal’s entire passing attack as it currently stands.

With Robert Lewis and Rivaldo Fairweather in the fold as well, Auburn’s skill position players have a major edge over Cal’s in this game.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Tigers have the edge as well. Although Cal’s defense is solid, Auburn features possibly the best linebacker tandem in the SEC with Eugene Asante and Jalen McLeod. The Tigers were on the field for nearly 80% of the week one win and managed to hold Alabama A&M out of the end zone. Cal on the other hand let up 13 points to UC Davis. The Golden Bears best defensive player from a season ago, safety Patrick McMorris, now plays in the NFL for the Miami Dolphins. Their best linebacker from 2023, Kaleb Elarms-Orr, now plays his college football at TCU.

Auburn lost some pieces as well, but the Tigers were able to re-tool much better in 2024 than their counterparts from the west coast.

After taking a look at the tale of the tape, it’s clear Auburn has the edge in this rematch of Power 5 programs. While Cal nearly beat the Tigers a season ago, the home-field advantage and changes in personnel on both sides give Auburn the clear edge in the rematch on Saturday.

Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on  X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Brian on Twitter @TheRealBHauch

Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Alabama A&M

Will a dive into the tale of the tape show Alabama A&M has a higher chance of shocking the college football world than the experts believe?

In-state SWAC opponent Alabama A&M travels onto the Plains this weekend to open the season against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

While the Bulldogs aren’t nearly as fierce of a rival as the more well-known SEC squad with the same mascot, Alabama A&M did finish 2023 with a respectable 5-6 record.

As for the home team, Auburn went bowling last season after finishing the regular season slate 6-6. Unfortunately the Tigers played a tune on the world’s saddest violin in the Music City Bowl, losing in blowout fashion to Maryland to finish the year.

Hugh Freeze’s Tigers have a new-look heading into 2024, as the receiving core and secondary have undergone a new complete overhaul. While familiar faces still exist at the quarterback, running back, and linebacker positions, much of Auburn’s roster is going to look different this season.

Even with all the roster movement, Auburn comes into the opener as a near 7 touchdown favorite according to BetMGM. 

ESPN’s FPI doesn’t like the Bulldogs chances of pulling off an early-season miracle either, as the Football Power Index gives Auburn a 99% chance to claim victory on Saturday.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Alabama A&M has a higher chance of shocking the college football world than the experts believe? As we did last season, we’ll start by looking at the quarterbacks.

Auburn senior signal-caller enters his second season on the Plains after a turbulent first year in the Hugh Freeze offense. After starting off the season poorly, [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] had a superb stretch of play in early November against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas, totaling 753 all-purpose yards and 9 touchdowns over that span. Unfortunately the 22-year-old struggled against New Mexico State, Alabama, and Maryland to end his season, once against casting doubt over his status heading into 2024.

In total, the junior finished 2023 with 1,755 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He added 515 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground as well. Head coach Hugh Freeze has displayed confidence in his “QB1” throughout spring and summer camp, and Thorne will once again have the keys to the Tigers offense.

On the other side, Alabama A&M quarterback [autotag]Cornelious Brown IV[/autotag] enters his sixth season of college football on his third team. Still with two years of eligibility remaining, the junior has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career, as he’s only attempted more than 30 passes twice in five years. While Brown IV has plenty of experience, including games against Vanderbilt and UNC, the clear edge in the quarterback matchup goes to Auburn’s Payton Thorne.

The Tigers have an even clearer edge in the skill position battle. Alabama A&M’s best player on the offensive side of the ball is easily running back Donovan Eaglin. In an interesting twist that has become more common by the season in the NIL and transfer portal era, the running back started his career with Payton Thorne at Michigan State before transferring to Alabama A&M in 2022. Since then, the 5-foot-11 bruiser has averaged a clean 5.3 yards-per-carry on his way to 1,568 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.

Unfortunately for Eaglin, Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter is the much better back. Auburn’s longest-tenured offensive starter, Hunter rushed for 909 yards and 7 scores a season ago to vault his all-time rushing total to 2,170 yards. He enters 2024 just over 500 yards short the top 10 all time rushing leaders in Auburn history. While it would take a magnificent campaign for Hunter to pass Ben Tate’s top 5 mark of 3,321 yards, a solid season from the senior could vault him past Tre Mason (2,979) for the No. 6 spot on the list.

The largest skill-gap may be on the pass catching side of things. Auburn offers one of the better receiving quartets in the SEC, with transfer receivers [autotag]KeAndre Lambert-Smith[/autotag] (673 yards, 2023) and [autotag]Robert Lewis[/autotag] (877 yards, 2023) joining five-star freshman [autotag]Cam Coleman[/autotag] and 2023 receiving leader [autotag]Rivaldo Fairweather[/autotag] (394 yards, 2023) as weapons for Payton Thorne.

In another unusual but increasingly common storyline, Lewis, who transferred from Georgia State this offseason, spent some time catching passes from Alabama A&M starting quarterback Cornelious Brown IV during their time as Panthers in 2021.

As for Brown IV’s weapons, Alabama A&M’s receiving core was mostly gutted by graduation and the transfer portal. The only returning players to accumulate over 100 yards a season ago are senior Jacolby Hewitt (516 yards, 2023) and junior Keenan Hambrick (386 yards, 2023).

Auburn has the clear edge on every aspect of the offensive side of the ball, including the offensive line which is simply bigger and more physically imposing than their SWAC counterparts.

The defensive side of things is much of the same. The Bulldogs do offer a pair of studs in the secondary in Emari Pait and Kaleb Dawson, but the Tigers duo of [autotag]Keionte Scott[/autotag] and [autotag]Kayin Lee[/autotag] still gets the edge due to their experience against more talented receivers.

The most glaring mismatch may be in the front seven, where Auburn holds one of the best linebacker duos in the country in [autotag]Eugene Asante[/autotag] and [autotag]Jalen McLeod[/autotag]. That duo, along with Tigers de-facto defensive line captain Keldric Faulk, combined for 11.5 sacks a season ago, which is more than half (20) of the sacks created by the entire Alabama A&M defense in 2023.

Throughout all the positional groupings, Auburn is simply better and more dominant on both sides of the ball. That’s not to say an upset can’t happen, but it’s just extremely unlikely.

Going into a game as 7 touchdown favorites may seem hefty, but the tale of the tape says the spread is just about on the mark. We’ll see if Alabama A&M can prove the doubters, and the tape, wrong when the two in-state opponents face off on Saturday at 6:30 PM CST.

Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on  X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Brian on Twitter @TheRealBHauch