Tag: surrender index

Dennis Allen’s decision to punt reaches ‘99.5th percentile of cowardly punts’

Dennis Allen’s decision at the end of the third quarter reached the ‘99.5th percentile of cowardly punts’ during the 2023 season, per this metric:

Yeesh. Dennis Allen earned some boos from New Orleans Saints fans late in the third quarter during Sunday’s game with the Chicago Bears, choosing to punt on fourth-and-5 from the Chicago 40-yard line. The score was tied up 17-17.

And the decision drew criticism from the Surrender Index. A metric devised to rate punt decisions based on distance, field position, game score and clock timing, the Surrender Index is used to rate punts around the league based off how aggressive or cowardly they were. And Allen’s choice to punt in this situation hit the 99.5th percentile in the 2023 season, and the 98th percentile dating back to 1999.

It’s right in line for Allen, who would rather put the opposing offense in a tough spot and trust his defense to get a stop than risk a turnover on downs by his offense. Last season he graded out as one of the NFL’s most-cowardly decision-maker on fourth down.

But things worked out this time. Allen’s defense rallied to force their first punt of the afternoon and Rashid Shaheed returned it up to the Chicago 47-yard line. A couple of nice runs by Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill got the Saints into scoring position, and Hill capped the drive by a touchdown pass to Juwan Johnson to take the lead. Allen’s decisions have gotten him burned before, but his conservative call worked out well this time.

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Surrender Index grades Saints’ early punt vs. 49ers among NFL’s most-cowardly

The Surrender Index graded the Saints’ early punt vs. 49ers among NFL’s most-cowardly. Do you agree with their take?

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Well that’s not what you want to hear. The Surrender Index Twitter account examines decision to punt in every game each week based on the specific situation, factoring in down and distance to go as well as the score and time left on the clock. It’s a unique tool, and it really disagreed with Dennis Allen’s decision to punt on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.

Needing just a yard to pick up a fresh set of downs from their own 45-yard line about 10 minutes into the first quarter, the New Orleans Saints opted to punt the ball away rather than go for it. That decision ranked within the 91st percentile of “cowardly” punts this season, and inside the 87th percentile among all punts dating back to the 1999 season. Not great.

You’d like to see the Saints be more aggressive there, trusting in their mostly-healthy offensive line and short yardage specialists like Taysom Hill to go get a single yard near midfield. It’s an opportunity to assert themselves on the road against a better opponent.

But Allen’s decision does make some sense given more context. New Orleans ended their first drive with an Alvin Kamara fumble at their own 43-yard line, giving the high-powered 49ers offense a short field to work with (they ended up kicking a field goal from point-blank range after the Saints defense buckled down against their own end zone). Their second drive started with a false start. Maybe punting there was the right call, even if it wasn’t exciting to watch or approved by analytics services.

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