Strategy guides for every 2020 NFL playoff team

Become an instant expert on every team in the 2020 NFL playoff field.

It’s been a long NFL season, but the postseason is finally here. Now, you probably didn’t get to study the entire playoff field in-depth during the regular season. No worries. We’ve put together guides that will help you become an instant expert on all 12 teams making up the field.

These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.

Before jumping to a team’s strategic profile, here’s what you need to know to better understand these numbers…

All of these stats are courtesy of Sports Info Solutions unless noted otherwise.

Offensive personnel

The offensive personnel numbers are based on how many running backs and tight ends are on the field. The first number represents the number of backs; the second number represents the number of tight ends. So “12 personnel” refers to a grouping featuring one running back and two tight ends. That leaves two spots for wide receivers.

Here’s a handy guide to offensive personnel groupings.

Passing breakdown

Passing plays are broken down into two categories: Dropback and play-action. Dropback passes are those that don’t involve a fake handoff. “Quick drops” refers to plays where the quarterback is taking a dropback of three or fewer steps, which typically usually lead to shorter throws for the quarterback. Deep drops are those of five steps or more, which usually lead to longer throws.

Running breakdown

Running plays are broken down into two categories: Shotgun (which includes pistol formations) and under center. From there, we’ve broken down how often a team runs zone-blocking schemes and man-blocking schemes, which typically include a pulling blocker.

Defensive Personnel

Defensive personnel is based on how many defensive backs are on the field at once. “Base” features four defensive backs. “Nickel” features five defensive backs. And “Dime+” features six or more.

Strategic Tendencies

These are mostly coverage stats for the defense. Man and zone coverage rates (which don’t include all-out blitzes) are self-explanatory. “1-high coverages” are those where there is only one safety back deep. “2-high coverages” are those with, you guessed it, two safeties deep. And “Cover 0” refers to all-out blitzes without a safety playing deep. The “blitz rate” number comes from Pro Football Reference.

NOTE: All of the categories above are based on the second half of the 2019 regular season only.

Efficiency rankings

EPA/Play

This is based on the Expected Points model. It’s the difference between the expected points for an offense (based on play-by-play data) before and after a given play. Rankings for the 2019 season were calculated by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin.

Success rate

This is the percentage of plays that resulted in a positive EPA. Rankings were for the 2019 season calculated The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin.

DVOA

Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric, which is based on situational efficiency compared to the league average. The metric is adjusted based on strength of schedule.

Pass Block Win Rate

ESPN’s proprietary metric that uses player tracking data to measure how often a pass rusher beat his blocker within 2.5 seconds.

Pass Rush Win Rate

ESPN’s proprietary metric that uses player tracking data to measure how often a pass blocker prevents pressure within 2.5 seconds.

Adjusted Line Yards

This Football Outsiders metric aims to quantify the offensive line’s contribution to the run game by dividing credit for yards gained on a given run play. In short, the line is penalized for tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage and not given credit for the yards a running back gains after breaking through the defensive front.

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NFL playoffs strategy guide: Understanding the Ravens

The Ravens have mystified opponents on both sides of the ball.

These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.

In this guide, we’ll be looking at the Baltimore Ravens, who claimed the top seed in the AFC with a 14-2 record. Let’s get to know them…

RAVENS OFFENSE

When it comes to personnel, there isn’t a more diverse offense in the NFL. The Ravens technically base out of 11 personnel, but, more often than not, there are two or fewer receivers on the field. Baltimore plays a lot of tight ends and backs to buoy the running game, but with Hollywood Brown and Willie Snead in the receiving corps, there is always a deep threat on the field.

The Ravens’ pass rate is the lowest in the league, but Lamar Jackson has been wildly effective when he does drop back. Baltimore leans heavily on play-action fakes. With Jackson always a threat to take off and run, those fakes are made even more effective. When the Ravens want to get the ball out of his hands quickly, they’ll typically do so out of an empty formation, which spreads out the defense and makes the presnap picture clearer for the young signal-caller.

Baltimore owns the league’s most diverse and effective run game. This might be the best running team in NFL history. The Ravens do a little bit of everything. They are constantly shifting before the snap, moving gaps and toying with the defense’s run fits. Almost every hand-off involves some sort of read by Jackson, which changes the math inside the box. And even when the defense plays things perfectly, Jackson can just evade the free defender with a quick juke move. Did I mention this might be the best run-blocking offensive line in the league? This running game is a beast.

RAVENS DEFENSE

Whew. Look at those splits. Should we really be calling it “base” defense if the Ravens play it on only 5% of their snaps? Probably not. Baltimore can’t get enough defensive backs on the field. One of the key changes that spurred the defensive turnaround was moving corner Brandon Carr to safety and asking safety Chuck Clark to play linebacker.

I don’t know how much you can trust charting numbers for a Wink Martindale defense. Baltimore runs the most complex coverage schemes in the league, so there’s no telling what the secondary is up to on a given play. One thing we can say for sure: Martindale loves to blitz. A lot. No other team in the playoff field sends at least five rushers at a rate higher than 33.4%. The Ravens are up over 50%. And Martindale will blitz anywhere on the field. It’s easier to send the house when you have reliable corners on the outside and a safety like Earl Thomas patrolling the deep areas of the field.

The pass rush was a big concern for the Ravens coming into the season. After losing veterans Terrell Suggs and Za’Darius Smith, Baltimore didn’t have a proven pass rusher on the roster. Well, Martindale’s blitzes took care of that concern. And the midseason trade for Marcus Peters helped to shore up the secondary that had struggled before his arrival. After a slow start, and some creative adjustments by Martindale, the Ravens now own one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Playing all of those defensive backs has taken a toll on the run defense, however.

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NFL playoffs strategy guide: Understanding the Chiefs

A diverse offense led by Patrick Mahomes and a new and improved pass defense make the Chiefs dangerous.

These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.

In this guide, we’ll be looking at the Kansas City Chiefs, who earned a bye after winning the AFC West with a 12-4 record. Let’s get to know them…

CHIEFS OFFENSE

In the past, Andy Reid has been more diverse with his personnel usage but with all of the talent he has at receiver this season, it’s been mostly 11 personnel for the Chiefs in 2019. In Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and DeMarcus Robinson, Kansas City has the fastest receiving corps in the league. Their tight end, Travis Kelce, has plenty of speed himself.

I’m not sure how to describe this Chiefs’ passing game because there’s a little bit of everything on Reid’s menu of play calls. There are quick passing concepts, there are deep shots off of play-action, there are plenty of rollouts (with play fakes and without) and Reid might have the best screen game in the entire league. On top of that, the Chiefs run more RPO than any team in the league. When you have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, anything is possible. At least from Kansas City’s perspective. Game-planning for this offense is basically impossible.

Kansas City’s run game hasn’t been nearly as efficient as it was a season ago and things don’t appear to be getting better as we head into the playoffs. That may be the reason the Chiefs run at a league-low rate. When Kansas City does run, it’s typically with some sort of zone scheme. Reid protects his runs with RPOs and QB options. Defenses have responded by playing more man coverage, which has paid dividends for the Chiefs passing game. In that regard, the run game has served its purpose this season.

CHIEFS DEFENSE

It’ll be interesting to see how these numbers change after a Week 17 injury ended rookie safety Juan Thornhill’s season. The Chiefs were putting a lot of defensive backs on the field before the injury but secondary depth is now a question mark.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will throw all sorts of pre-snap looks at an offense. The safeties do the most shifting, but, again, that might change with Thornhill out for the playoffs. He and Tyrann Mathieu had been the key to Kansas City’s match coverages. Those two have helped bracket inside receivers, effectively closing off the middle of the field, and forcing quarterbacks to make difficult throws to the perimeter. Will Spagnuolo adjust? That’s the biggest question facing the Chiefs this postseason.

One thing hasn’t changed about this Chiefs defense: It still can’t stop the run, which could be an issue with Baltimore standing in the way of a Super Bowl appearance. But the pass defense is much-improved thanks to Spagnuolo’s coverage schemes, which has more than made up for the step back the pass rush has taken after the offseason departures of Dee Ford and Justin Houston.

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NFL playoffs strategy guide: Understanding the 49ers

Kyle Shanahan has the 49ers offense and it’s backed by one of the best defenses in the NFL.

These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.

In this guide, we’ll be looking at the San Francisco 49ers, who won the NFC West and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a 13-3 record. Let’s get to know them…

49ERS OFFENSE

The midseason injury to Kyle Juszychyk may have had an effect on this, but we’ve seen a slight shift in Kyle Shanahan’s personnel usage. In 2018, the 49ers based out of 21 personnel, but they’re playing with three receivers on the field more often in 2019. They are certainly deeper at receiver this year after drafting Deebo Samuel and trading for Emmanuel Sanders, so the change makes sense. With that said, the key to this offense is still two non-receivers in George Kittle and Jusychyk.

The Shanahans are known for their rushing attack, but it’s been Kyle’s exquisitely-choreographed passing game that has done most of the heavy lifting this season. Unsurprisingly, the 49ers are using a lot of play-action and using those play fakes to take shots downfield. No team has done a better job of scheming up open receivers deep. Shanahan has also leaned heavily on RPOs and packaged plays to keep defenses honest. If a team is going to load up the box to stop the run, Jimmy Garoppolo has the option to throw a quick slant behind an overly aggressive linebacker.

Shanahan is still calling his fair share of outside zone — a family tradition — but the 49ers’ run game has been more diverse this season. We’ve seen more counter and trap schems that play off Shanahan’s more traditional runs. San Francisco rotates its backs but their runners (Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida) all have one thing in common: Speed. If any of these guys get to the edge, it’s usually six. But defenses can’t overpursue or they’ll leave open cutback lanes. That’s the beauty of the Shanahan system.

49ERS DEFENSE

The 49ers will rotate their pass rushers but the back seven typically stays the same through a game. San Francisco will match personnel for the most part. If an offense comes out with only two receivers, the 49ers will match with base defense. If an extra receiver is out on the field, they’ll be in nickel.

Like all Pete Carroll disciples, Robert Saleh plays a lot of zone coverages. He does, however, play more two-high coverages than you’d typically see from those coaches. But, for the most part, the 49ers are a Cover 3/Cover 1 team that relies on a stellar four-man rush to get homes before the offense can find a hole in the zone or beat their man coverage. San Francisco typically saves its blitzes for third down, when Saleh can get more exotic with his calls.

Outside of a brief rough patch when injuries took their toll on the depth chart, the 49ers pass defense has been stellar. And their season is made more impressive by the fact that they haven’t been overly reliant on turnovers, as top defenses typically are.

The secondary is led by Richard Sherman, who is back to his old ways shutting down the left side of the field. The other members of the secondary have been solid. as well. Fred Warner is the best linebacker you’ve never heard of and has a good argument for being the best linebacker, period.

The crown jewel is the pass rush, though. The 49ers front office has poured a ton of resources into the defensive line, and it’s paying off. There is a lot of first-round talent at Saleh’s disposal, including rookie Nick Bosa, who has already established himself as the team’s most consistent pass rusher.

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NFL playoffs strategy guide: Understanding the Packers

Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur have collaborated to build the Packers offense.

These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.

In this guide, we’ll be looking at the Green Bay Packers, who earned a bye after winning the NFC North with a 13-3 record. Let’s get to know them…

PACKERS OFFENSE

The Packers offense has been a mix of what we’ve seen from them in the past (a lot of three-receiver sets) and what Matt LaFleur was doing before he got to Green Bay. The first-year coach played with two tight ends more often in Tennessee but a third of those plays have been replaced by two-back sets, with FB Dan Vitale playing a big role in the offense. That shift may have been necessitated by Jimmy Graham’s blocking allergy.

After a rough start, the Packers passing game has evolved to better fit Aaron Rodgers’ style of play. We’re seeing a lot of quick passing concepts, which include packaged plays that give Rodgers an option to hand the ball off of flip a quick pass out to a receiver (usually Davante Adams) based on a pre-snap read of the defense. The Packers have increased their usage of play-action but it’s not the typical play-action approach we’re used to seeing from a Shanahan-style coach. When Rodgers carries out a play fake, he’s typically staying in the pocket.

The passing game may be more Rodgers than LaFleur but the running game belongs to the coach. And it’s pretty damn good with Aaron Jones working as the primary back. Under McCarthy, Green Bay was a team that liked to run man-blocking concepts out of shotgun formations. Now, it’s mostly zone running plays from under center. But with Rodgers preferring to throw from the gun, there isn’t that same cohesion between the pass and run games that we see from other Shanahan coaches. That hasn’t limited the effectiveness of the rushing attack, though.

PACKERS DEFENSE

This might be the most “modern” defense in the NFL. The Packers don’t seem to care about defending the run and will prioritize stopping the pass by putting as much speed on the field as possible. No other team in the league plays more dime packages.

Mike Pettine comes from the Ryan Family coaching tree but you wouldn’t know it based on that blitz rate. The Packers don’t really need to blitz to get pressure thanks to the free-agent acquisitions of the Smiths, Za’Darius and Preston. Pettine is letting his front-four try to get home on their own while playing a lot of zone coverages behind the standard rush. Pettine would probably like to play more man coverage, but Jaire Alexander is really his only reliable cornerback at this point.

This is where you can see the effects of Pettine’s personnel usage. The Packers are almost always at a disadvantage in the size department, so teams have been able to run at will against them. But look at those passing numbers. That’s the trade-off, and in today’s NFL, it’s better to be good against the pass than it is to be stout against the run. Pettine is taking the correct approach.

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NFL playoffs strategy guide: Understand the Seahawks

The Seahawks tend to take an old-school approach, with mixed results.

These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.

In this guide, we’ll be looking at the Seahawks, who had to settle for the fifth seed in the NFC after a disappointing loss to the 49ers in Week 17. Let’s get to know them…

[Or find the strategy guide for another team here.]

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

The Seahawks are known as a run-first team, but no team in the field plays as many pass-catchers. The Seahawks base out of three-receiver sets but will routinely go into four-receiver sets when they actually let Russell Wilson cook. Arizona was the only team that played more 10 personnel during the regular season.

Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer gets a lot of criticism for his run-pass balance (and rightfully so) but he’s done a good job of working around Seattle’s offensive line, which isn’t very good. When the Seahawks want to take a shot downfield, they’ll call play-action –which slows down the pass rush — and get Wilson out of the pocket. In the drop-back passing game, Wilson will get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible.

The Seahawks are running more man-blocking concepts than they were before Schottenheimer took over the offense, but this is still primarily a zone-blocking run game. There haven’t been a lot of explosive plays, but the run game has consistently kept the offense ahead of the chains. The Seahawks still run the ball too much, but at least they’ve done it from spread sets, which has boosted their efficiency.

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

The Seahawks defense is a throwback … and that’s not necessarily a good thing. Pete Carroll, in an effort to get what he thinks are his best 11 players on the field at once, plays with base personnel (4 DL, 3 LB, 4 DB) more than any other team by a WIDE margin. No other team in the field plays base more than 26% of the time.

The Seahawks defense is essentially the one you grew accustomed to during the Legion of Boom era. Seattle is still playing a lot of zone coverages with a single safety in the deep middle. The Seahawks are blitzing at about a league-average rate, but when they do so, they’ll almost always play zone coverage behind the blitz. Seattle has rarely left its corners on their own with no safety help.

It hasn’t been a good year for Carroll’s defense. The midseason acquisition of safety Quadre Diggs has helped … some. But the Seahawks are playing too much base defense. While Jedeveon Clowney has consistently beaten his blocker it hasn’t turned into sacks and he isn’t getting any help from the rest of the rush.

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NFL playoffs strategy guide: Understanding the Saints

When you have Drew Brees your offense doesn’t need to be that innovative.

These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.

In this guide, we’ll be looking at the New Orleans Saints, who rolled to an NFC South title but just missed out on a bye with a 13-3 record. Let’s get to know them…

[Or find the strategy guide for another team here.]

SAINTS OFFENSE

The Saints are one of the few teams that regularly use a fullback, but, at heart, this remains a one-back team. The Saints passing game is at its best with three receivers and a tight end on the field.

This is an old school passing game. The Saints will employ deep drops more than any team in the playoff field. Sean Payton can trust Drew Brees to do so because he gets the ball out so quickly. Despite those deeper drops, this isn’t exactly an explosive offense. Nor does it have to be thanks to Brees’ ridiculous precision. New Orleans does most of its damage on option routes. It’s typically Michael Thomas running those, but Jared Cook has also been involved. The screen game hasn’t been as effective as it’s been in the past — mostly due to the fact that Alvin Kamara has been banged up — but it’s still a significant part of the offense.

The Saints don’t have a terribly diverse running game. It’s mostly zone running plays — they’ll run both inside and outside zone — from under center. They’ll also run a lot of “Duo,” which is a man blocking play without a puller.

SAINTS DEFENSE

Only four playoff teams play less base than the Saints do, who will use a lot of three-safety looks. Rookie Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is typically that third safety playing closer to the line of scrimmage.

The Saints play a lot of man coverage and they typically do so out of single-high looks. They are not afraid to leave their corners one-on-one outside — especially not Marshon Lattimore, who will travel with the opponent’s No. 1 receiver if need be. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen does a good job of mixing up his coverages and employing match concepts that get the deep safeties more involved. He isn’t afraid to dial up a designed pressure and may have to do so more often with Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins going down for the season.

Allen has done a masterful job of creating pressure. Outside of Cameron Jordan, the Saints don’t have any pass rushers who will really scare opposing offensive lines, but the pressure and sack numbers are still there. The strength of this defense is stopping the run, but that may be harder to do without Rankins and Davenport.

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NFL playoffs strategy guide: Understanding the Texans

The Texans got by with an unimaginative offense and a cobbled-together defense.

These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.

In this guide, we’ll be looking at the Houston Texans, who held off the Titans to win the AFC South with a 10-6 record. Let’s get to know them…

[Or find the strategy guide for another team here.]

TEXANS OFFENSE

The Texans do not utilize a lot of personnel groupings, and it’s not hard to figure out what they’re trying to do based on the players out on the field. Bill O’Brien prefers to pass out of spread sets with three receivers, and when he wants to get the running and play-action games going, Houston will put an extra tight end on the field. The Texans are at their best when they can get DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller both on the field.

O’Brien has heard some criticism for his boring offensive schemes, and, based on Houston’s tendencies, it’s been warranted. The Texans do not do a whole lot in the passing game. They’ll go to empty sets when they want to get the ball out quickly. They use play-action when they want to push the ball downfield. But Houston does not use play-action enough nor does it get Deshaun Watson outside of the pocket (by design), which is where he’d be at his most dangerous. The screen game is non-existent. Despite the lack of variety, the Texans offense has been productive, even if it has been inconsistent.

O’Brien does deserve credit for working around a bad offensive line to create a good running game. Houston uses the threat of Watson’s mobility to even up numbers in the box. Running mostly out of shotgun formations has allowed them to do that. Watson doesn’t run often but he does enough to force defenses to account for him, which has opened up space for Carlos Hyde, who is enjoying a nice bounce-back season.

TEXANS DEFENSE

As predictable as the Texans offense has been, the defense has been anything but. That’s been out of necessity. Houston’s defense has been hit hard with injuries and the secondary got a midseason makeover.

The Texans do have a bit of a tell in passing situations. When there are two safeties deep, you can bet defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel has some sort of zone defense called. When there’s only one safety deep, it’s almost certainly a man coverage. The Texans have been undermanned in the secondary but that hasn’t stopped Crennel from dialing up a lot of creative pressures.

The numbers are really ugly. The Texans can’t get after opposing quarterbacks and the secondary has struggled to hold up in coverage. And as bad as the pass defense has been, the run defense hasn’t been much better. It’s been fine on a down-to-down basis, but Houston has given up too many explosive runs. The Texans are getting J.J. Watt back in time for the playoffs, but you have to wonder how many snaps he’ll be able to play after being sidelined for significant time.

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NFL playoffs strategy guide: Understanding the Patriots

New England’s defense has been great. The offense, though …

These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.

In this guide, we’ll be looking at the New England Patriots, who had to settle for the third seed in the AFC playoffs after an uneven finish to the season. Let’s get to know them…

[Or find the strategy guide for another team here.]

PATRIOTS OFFENSE

The Patriots have had to tinker with their personnel groupings all season after losing FB James Develin early on. They’ve played more spread out offensive sets after it became apparent that the ground-and-pound approach that worked last January wouldn’t be so effective this season.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen the Patriots offense look this bad. The results don’t reflect how inept the offense has been thanks to an easy schedule, but the passing game has been disjointed for the last three months of the season. New England’s air “attack” has essentially fractured into two units: One is a spread-it-out, quick passing game; the other is operates out of heavy personnel and leans on deep shots off play-action. Neither has been very effective as Tom Brady hasn’t been as precise as he was at the height of his powers.

Brady wasn’t exactly at the height of his powers last season either, but the Patriots had a running game they could lean on to score points and control the clock. That hasn’t been the case this season. The running game has been fine on a down-to-down basis, but big plays have been hard to come by. Develin’s absence has been felt as New England has had to employ more zone concepts in 2019.

PATRIOTS DEFENSE

Bill Belichick loves his defensive backs, so it’s not a surprise that he’s playing less base than almost the entire league. The secondary deep, and the front seven lacks athleticism, so Belichick has been smart to take that approach.

No team in the NFL plays more man coverage than the Patriots. Stephon Gilmore is the star and has been drawing the opponent’s best receiver every week. When in man coverage, the Patriots will typically keep one safety deep and ask the other to help out on receivers running crossing routes over the middle. New England will reserve zone coverages for obvious passing downs when it will play a lot of Cover 2. Or Belichick will just send the house with no safeties deep. That’s how much trust he has in his corners.

New England has been the best defense all season. The secondary has been key, but Belichick deserves a ton of credit for helping out an underwhelming group of pass rushers with his clever blitz designs. The Patriots coach values big defensive linemen who can hold up in the run game and has to sacrifice pass rush ability in order to keep those guys on the field. The results have justified the approach.

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