Tag: Standings

This NFL playoff picture simulator doesn’t like the Saints’ chances

The New York Times’ NFL playoff picture simulator doesn’t like the New Orleans Saints’ chances:

The New York Times’ NFL playoff picture simulator doesn’t like the New Orleans Saints’ chances to go the distance. After Week 8’s games, the NYT gives the Saints a 55% shot at making the playoffs — and just a 33% chance of winning the NFC South.

That’s a little unusual given the circumstances. The Saints are tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the division lead right now with both teams limping to a 4-4 record. Atlanta just benched (but not really?) their struggling starting quarterback Desmond Ridder, and they’ve lost their best defensive lineman Grady Jarrett for the season.

But the NYT likes the Falcons better. Atlanta has a 71% chance at reaching the postseason and a 54% shot at winning the division. How they arrived at these conclusions is a mystery wrapped within a knot of advanced stats and various rating systems (which you can read more about here).

And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still in the mix, trailing the 4-4 Saints and Falcons with their 3-4 record. The NYT playoff picture simulator gives the Bucs a 29% shot at making the playoffs but just 13% odds of winning the NFC South. At the end of the day it’s too soon predict anything definitively. We’ll just have to let the games play out and see where everyone stands once the dust settles.

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Saints suddenly tied with the Falcons for first place in the NFC South

Don’t look now, but the New Orleans Saints are suddenly tied with the Atlanta Falcons for first place in the NFC South after Week 8’s games:

Don’t look now, but the New Orleans Saints are suddenly tied with the Atlanta Falcons for first place in the NFC South after Week 8’s games. The Saints won their matchup with the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday while the Falcons came up short to the Will Levis-led Tennessee Titans — following a loss by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier in the week.

Even the Carolina Panthers found a way to win and end their six-game losing streak. Here’s a look at the updated NFC South standings going into Week 9:

The Big Ten West is a beautiful mess in its final season

The Big Ten West is a beautiful mess in its final season:

Wisconsin lost 24-10 to Ohio State on Saturday, dropping to 5-3 on the season and 3-2 in Big Ten play. The Badgers had a leg up in the Big Ten West after their big comeback win over Illinois, yet Saturday’s loss moved the team back into a massive pack of mostly average teams.

Iowa is 3-2 with the tiebreaker over Wisconsin, Wisconsin is 3-2, Minnesota is somehow 3-2 with a tiebreaker over Iowa, Nebraska is quietly 3-2, Northwestern is 2-3 and both Purdue and Illinois are 1-4. The division is a beautiful mess in its final season of existence.

Usually, there are 1-2 teams clearly above the rest. This year, every squad might just be equally average. While not great in the national landscape, it does make for captivating late-season football.

Here is a visual look at the hilarious Big Ten West standings through this weekend:

A new team is on top of the NFC South standings going into Week 8

A new team is on top of the NFC South standings going into Week 8

A new team is on top of the NFC South standings going into Week 8 after the Atlanta Falcons lapped the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the Carolina Panthers toiling away during their bye week. Here is each team’s record, upcoming schedule and current ranking around the league in a couple of key stats:

Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 8: Wisconsin is back….?

Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 8: Wisconsin is back….?

We’re almost through the month of October and the Big Ten conference race is as confusing as ever.

Iowa, which had a clear lead in the West, lost in brutal fashion at home to Minnesota. Meanwhile, Wisconsin took care of business and Ohio State flattened Penn State. There are two top teams in the East, and the West is anybody’s guess at this moment.

Related: Updated game-by-game predictions for Wisconsin football after its win at Illinois

One big matchup looms this weekend as the Buckeyes make a trip to Madison. All eyes will be on the Badgers as they look for a season-defining win and a clear leg up in the division.

Updated game-by-game predictions for Wisconsin football after its win at Illinois

Updated game-by-game predictions for Wisconsin football after its win at Illinois:

Wisconsin kept its Big Ten West and Big Ten title hopes alive by the skin of its teeth Saturday, as a last-minute touchdown to OT Nolan Rucci proved to be the difference in a 25-21 win over Illinois.

The Badgers are now 5-2 on the season and 3-1 in Big Ten play. Believe it or not, the team now sits in first place in the Big Ten West thanks to Iowa’s loss to Minnesota. If Wisconsin beats Ohio State next Saturday, the division is likely theirs.

Up after Ohio State is a semi-cakewalk to the finish line. As the Badgers hang tough in the top 30 of ESPN’s FPI metric, most of the rest of the Big Ten continues to slide.

According to FPI, here are the rest-of-season projections for the Wisconsin Badgers:

Wisconsin remains ESPN SP+’s best team in the Big Ten West

Wisconsin remains ESPN SP+’s best team in the Big Ten West

Wisconsin fell to Iowa 15-6 on Saturday, relinquishing control of the Big Ten West in the process. The Badgers are now 2-1 in conference, 0.5 games behind Iowa yet now without the tiebreaker against the Hawkeyes.

If the Badgers are to lose to Ohio State in two weeks, the team would then need Iowa to find another two Big Ten losses for them to have any chance at the division crown. It is hard to see that happening given the strength of Iowa’s remaining schedule.

Related: Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 7: Iowa wins the Big Ten West

While wins and losses are what matter in the end, many metrics and models don’t overreact to one final score on the field. ESPN SP+ falls into that category and still has the Badgers as the best team in the Big Ten West.

Full Big Ten West ranking:

  • Wisconsin (No. 25)
  • Iowa (No. 37)
  • Nebraska (No. 53)
  • Minnesota (No. 56)
  • Illinois (No. 58)
  • Purdue (No. 75)
  • Northwestern (No. 95)

Wisconsin has a lot of work to do with its backup quarterback now under center to make up the ground lost to the Hawkeyes.

Week 7’s Big 12 Weekly Wrap-up including updated recruiting rankings

CSW breaks down updated standings, QBR, FPI, and recruiting rankings.

It was a somewhat wild weekend of college football in the Big 12 conference. It began on Thursday night with an offensive explosion in the fourth quarter between the West Virginia Mountaineers and Houston Cougars in the “Dana Holgorsen Bowl.”

The two teams scored a combined 38 points through three quarters before they combined for 42 points in the fourth. With a WVU touchdown late in the game, Houston had just 12 seconds to put together a scoring drive. We see this desperation play time and time again with more failures than successes in this situation. This time, quarterback Donovan Smith was able to pull off the improbable heroics.

It was going to be hard to top that wild finish as Stephon Johnson hauled in the deflection for the Cougars’ first win in Big 12 play. Only Cincinnati and UCF remain winless in conference play. Cincinnati had a shot to earn their first-ever win as members of the Big 12 in conference play but it was not to be for the Bearcats.

UCF was idle and Cincinnati fell to Iowa State, 30-10. The Cyclones moved ahead of West Virginia in the Big 12 standings and controls their own destiny. Iowa State is half a game ahead of the idle Texas Longhorns, Kansas State Wildcats, Oklahoma State Cowboys, and West Virginia Mountaineers for that No. 2 spot in the conference behind the Oklahoma Sooners.

In other action the TCU Horned Frogs steamrolled BYU 44-11, Oklahoma State came back against Kansas 39-32, and Kansas State won their eighth straight against Texas Tech 38-21.

College Sports Wire takes a look back at the week that was in the Big 12 with the weekly wrapup, including who leads the new-look conference in recruiting.

The Wisconsin Badgers’ quest to win the Big Ten West is over

The Wisconsin Badgers’ quest to win the Big Ten West is over

We are entering the election-predicting mode of our coverage of Wisconsin’s 2023 football season. And we have a proclamation to make after the Badgers’ 15-6 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday: Wisconsin’s quest to win the Big Ten West in the division’s final year is over.

Is it over mathematically? Not quite. ESPN FPI still gives the Badgers a 17% chance to get the job done, as they are still tied with Iowa in the loss column with six conference games remaining.

But given the context of the rest of the season, how the Badgers looked on Saturday and Tanner Mordecai’s possible long-term injury, I am naming Iowa the winner of this race.

To flip the result, Wisconsin needs Iowa, which has five conference games left, to lose one more game than it does the rest of the way. The challenge rests in Iowa having a cupcake schedule the rest of the way: vs. Minnesota, at Northwestern, vs. Rutgers, vs. Illinois and at Nebraska.

Compare that with Wisconsin’s upcoming slate of at Illinois, vs. Ohio State, at Indiana, vs. Northwestern, vs. Nebraska and at Minnesota. The Badgers would need to go 5-1 in those six games and pray the Hawkeyes drop two contests.

I should note: that can easily happen. Iowa is on to its backup quarterback, doesn’t have any of its top tight ends and boasts one of the worst offenses in the country (again). But Wisconsin took advantage of all of that and even won Saturday’s contest on a down-to-down basis, seen below:

Yet Iowa wins how Iowa always wins: timely turnovers, a strong defense and the best college punter I’ve ever seen in Tory Taylor.

Even if the Hawkeyes do slip up twice the rest of the way, giving Wisconsin life in the division if the team can win out…do we trust this Badger team to suddenly put it all together? I do not.

Saturday’s loss was startling. And it has me officially conceding the Big Ten West.

Saints stay alive in a historic day for losses in the NFC South

The Saints stayed alive in a historic week for losses for the NFC South. Three teams are gridlocked with three wins each:

Yuck. There isn’t much solace for New Orleans Saints fans to take from Sunday’s loss, but like it or not: they’re still alive in the division title race. It was a historic day for losses in the NFC South as all four teams lost on the same day for the first time.

Sure, the Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have all lost in the same week — it’s happened three times since the division was formed in 2002, per sports research consultant Drew Porche. But all four teams have never taken a loss on the same day in 22 years, at least until now.

So here’s the updated standings and forecasts for each team in the NFC South after Week 6’s wave of disappointment: