Tag: Standings

The Saints now stand alone at the top of the NFC South

The New Orleans Saints have sole possession of the NFC South lead after a win and losses by the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Buccaneers.

Week 9 has been good to the New Orleans Saints. After defeating the Chicago Bears, the team was able to celebrate in the locker room and watch their divisional rivals both lose — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons fell to the Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings, respectively, both teams via last minute drives by the opposing quarterback.

The Saints now sit alone at the top of the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers had a late kickoff with the Indianapolis Colts, but they’re so far behind the other teams the result won’t impact the standings. Here’s the state of the division:

ESPN FPI still gives Wisconsin the second-best chance to win the Big Ten West

ESPN FPI still gives Wisconsin the second-best chance to win the Big Ten West

I am sorry to report that the ‘Wisconsin can still win the Big Ten West’ content needs to continue. Even though the Badgers just lost 20-14 to a terrible Indiana team, falling to 5-4 on the season and 3-3 in Big Ten play.

The West standings became a bit more clear on Saturday. Iowa is in first place alone at 4-2, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Minnesota are tied at 3-3, Northwestern and Illinois are alive at 2-4 and Purdue is dead at 1-5.

Of note: Iowa has the tiebreaker over Wisconsin, Minnesota has the tiebreaker over Iowa and Nebraska closes its season against Iowa. It’s likely a tiebreaker decides the division.

Related: Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 10: A final ode to the Big Ten West

If you’re checked out of the season because the Badgers aren’t good and just lost to Indiana, look away. ESPN FPI still gives the team the second-best chance to win the Big Ten West:

Wisconsin will obviously need to run the table against Northwestern, Nebraska and Minnesota to make that happen, plus get a lot of help from the Hawkeyes.

Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 10: A final ode to the Big Ten West

Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 10: A final ode to the Big Ten West

The Big Ten West is going out in perfect fashion.

Things actually looked promising with Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nebraska all playing well and contending for the crown. Then the last two Saturdays happened…

Wisconsin has lost two straight including one at Indiana, Nebraska just lost to a terrible Michigan State team and Minnesota lost to Illinois. Somehow Iowa is the only team still winning.

Meanwhile, the Big Ten East picture looks the same its looked for months. Michigan is dominant, Ohio State keeps winning but is the clear No. 2 and Penn State is really good but not quite good enough to win the division.

November was created to settle all these races and battles. As we enter the best month of the year, here are our Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 10:

Updated game-by-game predictions for Wisconsin football after its loss at Indiana

Updated game-by-game predictions for Wisconsin football after its loss at Indiana

Wisconsin suffered an inexplicable 20-14 loss at Indiana yesterday. The loss dropped the Badgers to 5-4 on the season and 3-3 in Big Ten play, while giving the Hoosiers their first conference win of the season.

There aren’t many ways to sugarcoat the effort. Yes, Wisconsin was without its top quarterback, top two running backs and top receiver. But Indiana entered as SP+’s No. 95 team in the nation and had only defeated Indiana State and Akron. They are easily the worst team in the Big Ten this season.

The loss was Wisconsin’s second to Indiana since 2020. Luke Fickell was hired to compete for championships and elevate the Badgers’ status, so losses like these start to put that vision in doubt.

There are still games left this season, though. Here are rest-of-season projections for Wisconsin football according to ESPN FPI:

Every Big Ten West OC would be fired if they had Iowa OC Brian Ferentz’s contract

Every Big Ten West OC would be fired if they had Iowa’s Brian Ferentz’s contract:

If you’ve followed this website, or college football in general, over the last year then you’re likely aware of the situation surrounding Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz.

If not: Iowa has been terrible on offense for years, so this offseason the program put a stipulation in the OC’s contract that he must average 25 points per game to stay employed.

Narrator: Iowa is not currently averaging 25 points per game. It’s down at 19.5, which makes it remarkable the team is 6-2.

Well, there was a big update this week that is worth sharing: Brian Ferentz will not return next year as Iowa’s offensive coordinator. Head coach Kirk Ferentz, Brian’s father, then confirmed that he plans to return as head coach. So it isn’t a full cleaning of the house.

Put aside my thoughts on how Iowa runs its football program. I thought it would be interesting to see whether any team in the Big Ten West is on pace to reach the 25 points-per-game threshold.

As it turns out, not a single team is:

  1. Wisconsin: 24.8 PPG
  2. Purdue: 21.9 PPG
  3. Northwestern: 21.8 PPG
  4. Minnesota: 21.1 PPG
  5. Illinois: 20.4 PPG
  6. Nebraska: 20.2 PPG
  7. Iowa: 19.5 PPG

That means if every OC in the division had Ferentz’s contract, they would all be on pace to be fired at the end of the year.

That is obviously not the case. But it’s amazing how terrible the division is in its final season. A true ode to classic, Big Ten West football.

Wisconsin remains SP+’s best team in the Big Ten West

Wisconsin remains SP+’s best team in the Big Ten West

Wisconsin fell 24-10 to Ohio State on Saturday, falling to 5-3 on the season and 3-2 in Big Ten play. Somehow, some way, the team is still technically tied for first place in the Big Ten West.

The Badgers were sizable underdogs to the No. 3-ranked Buckeye team. So despite the loss, the team did not fall in ESPN’s SP+. Wisconsin remains ranked No. 27 in the metric, with the No. 63 offense and No. 12 defense.

As has been the case all season, the Badgers are still SP+’s top-ranked team in the West division. Unfortunately, the division is not solely decided based on Bill Connelly’s numbers.

  1. Wisconsin (No. 27)
  2. Iowa (No. 36)
  3. Minnesota (No. 49)
  4. Nebraska (No. 51)
  5. Illinois (No. 62)
  6. Purdue (No. 82)
  7. Northwestern (No. 92)

Good news for the Badgers: four Big Ten games remain against Indiana (No. 95), Northwestern (No. 92), Nebraska (No. 51) and Minnesota (No. 49). It’s a winnable final stretch.

Wisconsin vs Ohio State was college football’s second most-watched game of Week 9

Wisconsin vs Ohio State was college football’s second most-watched game of Week 9:

NBC executives are thrilled today. The draw of primetime Big Ten football is clear, especially when two recognizable brands are taking the field.

Sportsmediawatch.com published the television ratings from Week 9 of college football and slotted in at No. 2 with 4.87 million viewers and a rating of 2.6: Wisconsin vs No. 3 Ohio State. The game trailed only CBS’ Game Of The Week of Florida vs Georgia (5.95 million viewers) as the most-watched game of the day.

These gargantuan numbers will be seen more and more in the coming years as the Big Ten and SEC consolidate many of the country’s top teams. A late-October week will start having 5-6 of these marquee games, as opposed to just one or two.

Executives from NBC, FOX and CBS paid significant sums of money to own Big Ten television rights moving forward. It’s safe to say the return on ratings will be seen from the day the conference’s expand next fall.

Wisconsin is still without a quality win on its 2023 resume

Wisconsin is still without a quality win on its 2023 resume

Wisconsin football is 5-3 overall and 3-2 in Big Ten play now eight games into its first year under new head coach Luke Fickell.

The team is winning, and showing glimpses of what the future will look like under Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo. It currently holds strong at No. 27 in ESPN SP+ on the strength of another top-12 defense.

I think we all agree the Badgers are a solid team, despite big injuries to both starting running backs and its starting quarterback. The team is ‘solid,’ but not quite ‘good.’ And it’s one that is clearly still building an identity.

Related: Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 9: The West is a mess.

The 5-3 overall record has been recorded against college football’s No. 57-ranked strength of schedule. If it wasn’t already clear, the Big Ten West is not good.

But looking deeper, the Badgers do not have a single ‘quality win’ on their resume. The definition of ‘quality’ does not matter for these purposes. Wisconsin has defeated SP+’s No. 50, 62, 80, 82 and 108 teams, while it’s lost to No. 3, 36 and 44.

There’s a clear dividing line at the moment: every team ranked in SP+’s top 50 after Week 9 has given the Badgers fits.

 

Also, as the weeks go by, each win on Wisconsin’s resume somehow finds a way to look worse and worse:

  • The Buffalo Bulls (38-17 win in Week 1) are now 3-5 overall and ranked No. 108 in SP+
  • Georgia Southern (35-14 win in Week 3) is 6-2, but not a top-80 team in SP+
  • Purdue (38-17 win in Week 4) has dropped three straight and is now 2-6 (1-4 Big Ten)
  • Rutgers (24-13 win in Week 6) is the best argument for a quality win…but it’s still a Rutgers team ranked No. 50 in SP+ at home
  • Illinois (25-21 win in Week 8) is 3-5 (1-4 Big Ten) and not a top-60 team in SP+

Luckily, Wisconsin isn’t trying to build a College Football Playoff resume. The program is trying to build an identity while somehow winning the Big Ten West this year.

I guess here’s the general message: Wisconsin has still yet to truly overcome a tough matchup. And while the end of the schedule looked easy a month ago, November battles with Nebraska (5-3) and Minnesota (5-3) look more and more tough by the week.

This season won’t define what Luke Fickell accomplishes, or doesn’t, at Wisconsin. But as I always do with this sport and this program, they have to be graded on the same curve everyone else is. The resume just isn’t that good right now.

Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 9: The West is a mess.

Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 9: The West is a mess.

Wisconsin fell into the pack of average in the Big Ten West this weekend with a 24-10 loss to Ohio State. The Badgers are 5-3 on the season and 3-2 in Big Ten play, still with four winnable games remaining and the West still up for grabs.

The issue for Wisconsin is, what is the team’s most impressive win? Buffalo is 3-5 and terrible, Georgia Southern is 6-2 but ranked No. 80 in SP+, Purdue is 2-6, Rutgers is Rutgers and Illinois is 3-5.

Not to be Mr. Cold Water, but Wisconsin’s most impressive win is a home triumph against a top-50 Rutgers team. That isn’t the least bit impressive.

That is all said to point out: while the remaining schedule is easy, we don’t know if Wisconsin is any good.

Here is where I rank the Badgers among the rest of the Big Ten after Week 9:

This NFL playoff picture simulator doesn’t like the Saints’ chances

The New York Times’ NFL playoff picture simulator doesn’t like the New Orleans Saints’ chances:

The New York Times’ NFL playoff picture simulator doesn’t like the New Orleans Saints’ chances to go the distance. After Week 8’s games, the NYT gives the Saints a 55% shot at making the playoffs — and just a 33% chance of winning the NFC South.

That’s a little unusual given the circumstances. The Saints are tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the division lead right now with both teams limping to a 4-4 record. Atlanta just benched (but not really?) their struggling starting quarterback Desmond Ridder, and they’ve lost their best defensive lineman Grady Jarrett for the season.

But the NYT likes the Falcons better. Atlanta has a 71% chance at reaching the postseason and a 54% shot at winning the division. How they arrived at these conclusions is a mystery wrapped within a knot of advanced stats and various rating systems (which you can read more about here).

And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still in the mix, trailing the 4-4 Saints and Falcons with their 3-4 record. The NYT playoff picture simulator gives the Bucs a 29% shot at making the playoffs but just 13% odds of winning the NFC South. At the end of the day it’s too soon predict anything definitively. We’ll just have to let the games play out and see where everyone stands once the dust settles.

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