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The Birmingham Stallions (10-1) and the San Antonio Brahmas (8-3) meet in the UFL Championship Game on Sunday at The Dome at America’s Center in St. Louis. Kickoff is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Stallions vs. Brahmas odds and make our expert UFL picks and predictions.
The Stallions are looking to secure a 3rd consecutive championship after winning the USFL the past 2 seasons. It won the UFL conference with a 9-1 record, and a 31-18 victory over the Michigan Panthers at home in the conference championship round last weekend.
Birmingham has won 10 of its 11 games this season, but that lone loss came in San Antonio in Week 9. The Brahmas won 18-9 as an 8.5-point underdog, holding the Stallions to a season low in points. In fact, Birmingham has scored 20 or more points in every other game this season.
The Stallions covered last week, snapping an 0-4 against the spread (ATS) skid to close out the regular season. The Over (43) cashed, too, and the total has gone high in 4 of the team’s past 6 outings after the Under went 4-1 in the first 5 games.
The Brahmas used defense to get into this position, and it’s nothing new. This team allowed 19 or fewer points in all but 1 game this season, a 31-24 loss at home against St. Louis in Week 3. The offense has been just good enough, posting 20 or more points just twice in the past 6 games, but the team is still 4-1 SU in the past 5, while covering 4 in a row.
With San Antonio’s defense, it’s no surprise that the Under is on an 8-0 run. In fact, that Week 3 game against the Battlehawks was the only Over result in 11 games this season.
In Week 9, San Antonio had a 32:11 to 27:49 edge in time of possession, while posting 329 total yards, to just 278 for Birmingham. The Brahmas scored 2 TDs in 3 trips to the red zone, too, while outrushing the Stallions 126-78. Both teams turned it over once.
League MVP Adrian Martinez was limited to 18-of-32 passing for 211 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, while running for 56 yards. TE Jace Sternberger was huge, going for 7 grabs and 110 yards with the lone TD. He scored in each of the final 2 regular-season games, while posting 2 grabs for 48 yards vs. Michigan last week.
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Stallions vs. Brahmas odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:14 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Stallions -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Brahmas +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Against the spread: Stallions -3.5 (-110) | Brahmas +3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Stallions vs. Brahmas key injuries
Stallions
- RB Larry Rountree (undisclosed) out
- WR Isaiah Zuber (undisclosed) out
Brahmas
- WR Landen Akers (suspension) out
- WR Cody Latimer (undisclosed) out
- WR Tavonn Salter (undisclosed) out
- RB Pooka Williams (undisclosed) out
Stallions vs. Brahmas picks and predictions
Prediction
Brahmas 20, Stallions 18
Moneyline
The BRAHMAS (+150) are worth a look as the underdogs. This San Antonio defense is sick, and they held the Stallions (-185) well below their season average in the Week 9 matchup at The Alamodome.
Birmingham was a well-oiled machine in the 1st half of the season, but the defense started to show some signs of breaking from Week 6 on. The Stallions allowed just 13.6 PPG in the first 5 games, but the Birmingham D coughed up 21.7 PPG in the past 6 outings, including 18 points to San Antonio in the 9-point loss.
Against the spread
Back the BRAHMAS +3.5 (-110) catching the points, if you’re a little more on the conservative side, and you can’t bring yourself to play San Antonio straight up against the 2-time defending champion Stallions -3.5 (-110).
Coach Wade Phillips has brought a suffocating defense to San Antonio, and as long as the offense can be somewhat effective, a straight-up win is likely. But if you need insurance, three and a hook is nice.
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Over/Under
UNDER 41.5 (-115) is the play in this title game in St. Louis.
Death, taxes and Brahma Unders? OK, that’s probably not really a saying, but it should be. San Antonio cashed low on the total 10 times in 11 games this season, including the Week 9 win over Birmingham.
The Stallions hit the Under in the final 2 regular-season games before re-discovering the gas pedal last week against Michigan. Still, it managed a season-low 9 points in the first meeting with the Brahmas. Go low.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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