Tag: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cleveland Guardians odds predictions pick betting line spread

The St. Louis Cardinals (23-30) and Cleveland Guardians (22-28) play the 2nd of a 3-game set at Progressive Field Saturday. First pitch is at 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 1-0

The Cardinals dropped a nailbiter 4-3 Friday night that ended on what seemed to be a bad strike 3 call. 2B Nolan Gorman thought he walked in the 9th inning to put runners on 1st and 2nd for 3B Nolan Arenado when a pitch high-and-outside was called strike 3 to end the game. St. Louis had its chances to win, crawling back into the game after going down 4-0 in the 5th.

SS Amed Rosario cleared the bases with a 3-run double in the 5th, but that served as enough despite that Cleveland mustered only 7 hits. Closer RHP Emmanuel Clase walked the tightrope in the 9th, allowing a run on 2 hits over 32 pitches and will likely be unavailable if a save chance occurs Saturday. The Guardians are just 3-7 and 12-18 over the last 10 and 30 games, respectively.

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Cardinals at Guardians projected starters

RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Flaherty (3-4, 5.29 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 51 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K, against the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
• 2 career starts vs. Guardians: 0-1, 5.00 ERA, 10 K in 9 IP

Bibee (1-1, 3.18 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 28 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 3 K, against the New York Mets Friday
• He’s 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in 3 GS at home and 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 6.4 K/9 in 2 road starts.

Cardinals at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Cardinals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Guardians -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+155) | Guardians +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Cardinals at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Guardians 5

Moneyline

We had some tough luck Friday, only nailing the Under play. Saturday’s game will be determined by whether the Cards’ bats are lively. Flaherty walks too many guys, and Cleveland doesn’t strike out often, which is the kind of team that will give him fits.

St. Louis will need to score 5 or 6 to get it done. Cleveland’s ‘pen isn’t in great shape for this one. Saturday’s game is there for the taking for St. Louis, who has won its last 6 games following a loss.

Take the CARDINALS (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

The Cards are favored on the RL here, but I don’t have enough faith in Flaherty or the Cards’ bullpen to hold up a multiple-run lead.

We’re going to PASS altogether here.

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Over/Under

It’s 71 degrees with a 9-mph breeze coming in from right-center field. The conditions are similar, but a little more favorable than Friday, and we had 7 runs. This game features two starters that walked 4 guys each in their last start, and there figures to be a lot of traffic on the basepaths. The Cards have cashed 6 Overs in their last 9 outings and Flaherty has seen Overs in his last 7 starts. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the teams as well.

OVER 8 (-120) is my favorite bet in this one.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (23-29) and Cleveland Guardians (21-28) open up a 3-game set at Progressive Field Friday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting since splitting a 4-game series in 2021

The Cardinals have started to turn things around after one of the worst starts in franchise history. St. Louis has won of 13 of its last 20 games to climb to within 5 games of 1st place in the NL Central. Their starting pitching ERA, which was once 2nd-to-last in baseball, has improved to 23rd at 5.01.

The Guardians are in a similarly weak division (AL Central) but have missed the necessary pieces to fire on all cylinders. They are 3-7 and 7-13 the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. They still sit 4.5 games out of 1st place, and if they fall out, these Cardinals are going to come calling about today’s starting pitcher.

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Cardinals at Guardians projected starters

RHP Matthew Libertore vs. RHP Shane Bieber

Libertore (1-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 3rd appearance. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 6 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K, against the Milwaukee Brewers May 17
• Pitched his way into forcing the team’s hand to have a 6-man rotation after going 4-1 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 56 K in 46 IP at Triple-A Memphis.

Bieber (3-3, 3.08 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 64 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, CG (8 IP), 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K, against the New York Mets Sunday
• 2 career starts vs. St. Louis: 2-0, 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10 K in 12 IP

Cardinals at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Cardinals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Guardians -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+165) | Guardians +1.5 (-200)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Cardinals at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 3, Guardians 2

Moneyline

This is a matchup between two similar teams. They’re in the weakest divisions in each league, and the Indians can’t score runs (30th with 3.47 runs/9), and the Cardinals can’t miss bats (22nd in runs/9 allowed at 4.88).

Bieber hasn’t been as good this year, and part of it is because hitters are tattooing his cutter. They’re hitting .340 off of it, as opposed to .245 last year, and he throws it 24.2% of the time. That’s a big reason why his K-rate has gone down from 8.9 to 6.6 as his velocity is the same.

Libertore is a completely different pitcher this year, using his fastball more confidently. It’s averaging 95.3 mph, which is up from 93.7 mph last year, albeit in a smaller sample size. I like the CARDINALS (-105) to sneak this one out. They’re 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games and interleague road games.

Run line/Against the spread

I’m going to pass on each RL in this pick ’em game, but there is a prop bet I’m intrigued with. Cleveland is the 2nd-hardest team to strike out in baseball at 7.16 per game. However, Liberatore’s K-rate has shot up to 10.9 combined between Triple-A and his 6 big-league innings. His K/9 was 8.7 at both levels last year. So I’ll take a chance at MATTHEW LIBERATORE OVER 3.5 K’S (-145).

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Over/Under

It’s 66 degrees with a 10-mph breeze coming in from right-center field in Cleveland. The Under is 4-0 in Bieber’s last 4 home starts. The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings in Cleveland. With the wind blowing in and the caliber of pitching we should see, I like the UNDER 7.5 (+100).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Ryan Dodson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

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