The Rams have specialized in play-action passing under head coach Sean McVay. The Cowboys will need to adapt in their Week 15 matchup.
The Dallas Cowboys enter their Week 15 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams on a three-game losing streak. The Rams however are on a streak of their own, winning two straight and coming off a 28-12 blowout victory against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14. The Cowboys currently lead the NFC East with a record of 6-7, while the Rams are fighting for a wildcard birth in the NFC West at 8-5. As it stands, both teams are riding a drastically different set of circumstances regarding playoff scenarios.
When looking at the Rams in 2019, it is easy to dismissIss their accomplishments at this point in the season. One year removed from a Super Bowl appearance, many analysts pegged them as a perennial championship contender. It is fair to say they have underachieved but nonetheless, they are still a formidable opponent and as the Cowboys will find out on Sunday, they certainly have a preference when it comes to play calling.
Play-action passing
The Rams are an interesting team to study. Simply put, their entire offense runs on the core principle of setting up an effective play-action passing attack. Head coach Sean McVay has built his team around this concept and after diving into some key stats and play tendencies this becomes even more apparent. First things first though, a look at the Rams’ favorite personnel package on offense.
In the modern NFL, most teams have favored 11-personnel, which features three wide receivers on the field. The Rams are no exception, opting to use the package on 418 of their plays in 2019. According to charting from Sports Info Solutions, this accounts for 83 percent of the Rams’ totals plays this season; one of the highest rates in the league. With this in mind, it is clear to see how the Rams present themselves to opponents. But while personnel usage isn’t a mystery, the real question is, how do they approach their play-action game? One of the answers could be in their play-calling tendencies.
From an under-center look the Rams have passed the ball 176 times. But out of 476 under-center playcalls, their preference has been to run the ball (300 plays). In 2019, the Rams have rushed from under center 63 percent of the time. In this aspect the Rams have rushed at one of the highest rates, but across the league, rushing from under center is heavily favored.
Overall, the Rams have been one of the best teams at utilizing play-action in the past. In McVay’s first year as coach the Rams ranked No. 2 in play-action usage (29 percent) and averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt via Football Outsiders. Those numbers took a jump in the following season, with the team ranking No. 1 in usage (36 percent) and No. 2 in yards per attempt at 9.4.
In 2019, the Rams’ play-action output has fallen off a bit. Heading into Week 15, they have averaged 7.8 yards on play-action passes at a rate of 27 percent. Even so, play-action still remains a crucial aspect of their game.
To recap, here is a quick review of the Rams’ offensive tendencies,
- Favor 11-personnel (83 percent of total plays)
- Rush 63 percent of the time from under center
- No. 2 in pass attempts from under center (176)
- No. 9 in play-action pass rate (average 7.8 yards)
What stands out the most from this is the rush rate from under center. Conventional wisdom would suggest the Rams rush at a high rate to make play-action passing more effective. From an analytical point of view, the data suggests this is simply not true. Some studies show play-action passes work no matter how well a team runs the football.
This chart expresses a similar notion in regards to passing from under center and rushing volume. Teams that ran more from under center did not see a boost in passing efficiency. Efficiency here is defined as Expected Points Added per pass with data from nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position. If this metric serves well, then the Rams are not seeing a return on their passing investments by choosing to rush at a higher rate.
The Rams try to show the same types of offensive looks to keep opposing defenses guessing. By dressing plays to look exactly the same from an execution standpoint, in essence, it could be enough to fool unsuspecting defenses. The Cowboys’ defense has proven to be unreliable as of late, but at the very least they should be prepared for what the Rams’ offense is capable of from under center.
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