Tag: Sports betting strategy

Sports betting strategy: What are key numbers and how to use them to win bets

Sportsbook Wire’s Geoff Clark discusses key numbers and how to use them when betting against the spread or Over/Under.

The saying “professional handicappers don’t bet teams, they bet numbers” has become a sports betting axiom. Even your average Joe understands the importance of key numbers in sports betting. Below, we’ll discuss what key numbers are and how you should factor them into your sports wagering.

Key numbers are the most common margin of victory and/or final scores in a given sport. Because of football’s scoring system, key numbers have more importance in the NFL and college football; however, we’ll also touch on how key numbers surface in other leagues.

Also see: Sports Betting Terms and Definitions

Key numbers in the NFL

Obviously, “3” and “7” are the two biggest key numbers in football since field goals are worth 3 points and a touchdown with an extra point conversion (PAT) is worth 7 points.

Research has found 14-15% of NFL games end in a 3-point margin of victory and 9-10% of games are decided by 7 points, according to Jeff Fogle of VSiN.com.

Getting a line of 3.5 or 7.5 points is known as betting “3 and the hook” and “7 and the hook”. Also, from an NFL wagering perspective, betting 2.5- and 6.5-point spreads are vital since games are often decided by 3 or 7 points.

Finding these numbers requires scouring listed prices across several sportsbooks in order to find the spreads with a hook or below a key number, buying points from a sportsbook for a particular game, or betting what’s known as a “teaser”.

Teasers

Oddsmakers have incorporated key number data into their pricing, which is why sportsbooks usually charge a premium if bettors would like to buy a half-point when a game is lined at either 3 or 7 points.

A teaser is a popular wager that allows you to adjust or move a line in multiple games but requires the bettor to win each game to cash the bet. Six-point teasers are the most common in NFL betting and are often used to move lines through key numbers.

For example, if the Miami Dolphins are 1.5-point road underdogs at the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams are 7.5-point home favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles, it could be profitable to “tease” the Dolphins up to 7.5-point underdogs and the Rams down to 1.5-point home favorites.

There are a variety of ways to get down on an NFL side with a key number but typically the most successful sports bettors find a way to profit by betting on, around or through key numbers.

Key numbers in other sports\

NBA

In the NBA, “7” is the biggest key number because that’s a three-possession margin in a basketball game and generally teams will stop fouling when down more than 6 points in the final moments.

PLAY: Our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

NHL

Key numbers aren’t really a thing for NHL puck lines but “5” is a key number for a total. This is especially true in the Stanley Cup Playoffs which usually feature lower-scoring games and professionals hammer the Under on 5.5-goal NHL totals in playoff games.

MLB

Similarly, most of the gambling action wagered on MLB sides involve the money lines but the key numbers for MLB totals are “7”, “9” and “11” since around 30% of games end with a total of 7, 9 or 11 runs scored.

If the next step to being a successful sports handicapper is “betting numbers, not teams” then factoring in key numbers is a must for every aspiring sharp.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1374]

Sports betting strategy: How to hedge and middle your bets

Sportsbook Wire’s Geoff Clark discusses what “hedging” and “middling” mean in sports betting and the optimal times to use those plays.

“Hedging” and “middling” are two of the most popular sports betting strategies you’ll hear mentioned by recreational and professional gamblers. Below, we’ll discuss what these approaches mean and how to use them.

A hedge is a strategy in which a bettor will bet the opposite side of a pending wager in order to reduce their risk and/or guarantee a profit. Hedging is popular with future bets because of its high payouts and multi-way action.

Middling is a method that has elements of hedging but is also used to score bigger payouts. A middle is when a bettor takes both sides of a game at different lines in hopes of scooping both bets.

Some sort of line move is needed to employ this strategy, whether it be within in-game betting or betting the opposite side of the original wager prior to the second half.

Also see: Sports Betting Terms and Definitions

When to hedge?

For me, hedging is more of a personal conversation in that a bettor’s willingness to hedge usually depends on that person’s bankroll or comfortability with a bet’s outcome.

If you don’t have much skin in the game or don’t feel good about the other lines in that bet’s market then why not let your original wager ride?

Let me give you an example of how to hedge. First, let’s pretend you’ve bet $100 on the Baltimore Ravens (+1400) to win the Super Bowl. They steamroll through the regular season and advance to the big game to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The original $100 wager on the Ravens (+1400) to win the Super Bowl has a $1,400 pending profit. In this mock scenario, the Buccaneers will be favored -130 on the money line. If you’re looking to hedge, the play would be to bet at least $130 on the Bucs (-130) to at least give yourself a “freeroll”.

Depending on how you feel maybe the play is to wager $650 on the Bucs (-130) money line to win the Super Bowl to guarantee yourself a $500 profit if Tampa wins or an $800 profit if Baltimore wins.

Again, this is more of a personal dilemma than a “one size fits all” strategy.

Middling opportunities

The best times to middle is either in-game or prior to the second half of a game you already have action on.

For example, maybe you really like the Tennessee Titans (+4.5) on the road against the Ravens and take Tennessee plus the points before kick-off.

Now, say the Titans catch a few first-half breaks and get out to a 21-7 lead entering halftime, but Baltimore is favored by 6 points for the second half. This would give you an 18-point cushion on the middle.

Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

With the Titans (+4.5) slip already in your pocket, by betting Baltimore -6 for the second half, you could scoop both bets if the Ravens lose by 7 or fewer points and Tennessee doesn’t lose by 5 or more points.

A middle can serve as a “hedge” or profit maximizer depending on how you play it. Either way, it’s a strategy that’ll definitely help your bankroll if properly used.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1374]

Sports betting strategy: Understanding sharp money vs. public money

Sportsbook Wire’s Geoff Clark discusses the difference between “sharp money” and “public money” and incorporating this intel into your handicapping.

Knowledge is power and being able to decipher between sharp and public money is a powerful skill for any sports bettor. Below, we’ll discuss what sharp money means and how to trace it.

Professional bettors are also referred to as “sharps”, “wiseguys” or “pros” and they are the experts of the sports betting world. While the public bets for fun, the sharps bet to make a living. The only way that can happen is if the pro is winning their bets at a 55% or higher clip.

Also see: Sports Betting Terms and Definitions

What is ‘sharp’ money?

Most bettors reading this don’t qualify as a “sharp” so the best we can do is to align with the sharp money. This makes figuring out where the sharp money is a vital part of handicapping a sporting event. Aligning with pros is the easiest way for us “squares” to get down on plus-expected value wagers.

These are the people who are grinding daily to find the best odds across several sportsbooks, working with runners or partners to get down big money on a particular game and their action changes lines in the market.

There are plenty of routes to becoming a “sharp” whether it’s via complex algorithms, math models, line originating, or handicapping; however, not being in this select group doesn’t exclude someone from making a sharp wager.

Using line movement to find ‘sharp’ money

Typically, when the wiseguys get down on a game it moves the market. Also, they bring a lot more money to the window than the “square” bettor, which usually explains line movement.

There are three different ways a line could move that would indicate where the sharp money lies:

  • Steam
  • Reverse line movement
  • Line freeze

First, a “steam move” is slang for the entire market (all sportsbooks) moving the spread, money line or total based on incoming action. Usually, this happens when a syndicate or group of pros bet big money on a particular side.

This isn’t always the case and because bookmaking is becoming more “group think” sometimes the market will move as a whole if one of the sportsbooks that knowingly accept sharp money changes their odds.

Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Second, “reverse line movement” (RLM) is when the odds change in favor of the less popular side. Most bettors understand this concept inherently because it’s fishy if the House makes the more popular team cheaper.

That type of bookmaking suggests the House respects or is fearful of the few bettors who’ve backed the less popular side.

In order to find RLM, you first have to access free betting splits, which are available on websites including VSIN.com and Pregame.com or by the sportsbooks themselves via social media.

Finally, a “line freeze” is simply when the public and even sharp money is backing one side but the oddsmakers haven’t budged from their opening number.

This indicates bookmakers know they are the sharp side and are comfortable taking more action. Finding a “line freeze” on the board tends to be profitable since you’re on the same side as the House and the House usually wins.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1374]

Sports betting strategy: What is Closing Line Value and how to get it

Sportsbook Wire’s Geoff Clark offers insight on the importance of “Closing Line Value” and how to attain it.

While most recreational bettors look at sports gambling as a results-oriented business, the goal of every professional sports bettor and/or advantage gambler is to get Closing Line Value.

The idea is that no one, not even the “wiseguys”, is sharper than the market so the best-case scenario for someone regularly betting on sports is to get ahead of the market. Below, we’ll discuss what “closing line value” is and its importance.

Also see: Sports Betting Terms and Definitions

What is Closing Line Value?

Closing line value compares the price at which you’ve bet a team or side to the closing line at the time the event starts.

Otherwise known as “CLV”, “beating the market” and “getting the best of the number”, sports bettors bow at the altar of closing line value because who doesn’t like bragging about getting a good deal?

For example, let’s say you jump on the opening line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-125) at home in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys and, at kickoff, the betting window closes with the Buccaneers favored by 7.5 points. In this case, you’d be able to brag about the price at which you bet Tampa Bay.

On the other hand, one of the worst feelings as a sports bettor is to get the worst of the number. Generally, contrarian thinking is profitable in sports betting but only if you beat the market.

Therefore, the key to CLV is anticipating which way the market is headed because time is money in sports betting. However, this is much easier said than done.

How to get Closing Line Value

The best way to sum up the importance of CLV is the more often a bettor gets an edge, the less they have to write about it.

Meaning, the true testament of a “sharp” is getting the best of the number and, in the long run, that person should be a winning bettor.

What I’m getting at is there’s no one foolproof way of attaining CLV as it’s part of the daily grind of handicapping sports and if there were it would be much easier for the Average Joe to beat the books.

Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Having “outs” is the most important aspect of getting CLV. “Outs” refers to having multiple sportsbook accounts you can bet through.

Since most oddsmakers copy each other, finding one book that’s number is different than the rest could clue you into the direction in which the market is heading.

The other way to get CLV is both simple and difficult: Work harder. Whether it’s building betting systems, sophisticated algorithms, or acquiring important team information, the goal is to get the best of the number.

Luck or variance comes with sports betting life so don’t expect every bet with CLV to be a winner, but finding it is a skill and the more a bettor hones this skill, the more likely that person is to make money wagering on sports.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1374]

Sports betting strategy: When and how to fade the public

Sportsbook Wire’s Geoff Clark offers insight on how to fade the public in sports betting and what it means.

“Fade the public” is the most popular sports handicapping angle because of its simplicity and practicality. The concept is easy: Bet the opposite of the more popular side because the recreational sports bettor typically loses.

This is solid logic and a good foundation with which to start when handicapping a particular game but it can be costly if blindly applied.

Below, we’ll discuss how to access the data needed to make a contrarian play against the market and the best spots to employ a “fade the public” strategy.

Also see: Sports Betting Terms and Definitions

How to find betting splits

There’s almost an overload of accessible websites that show the betting splits of a daily slate in a particular sport but, luckily, most of them are free.

My personal favorite is Pregame.com, which shows the opening and current lines, as well as the cash and total bets placed percentages for both the sides and totals of every game. Other free options include TheSpread.com and VSiN.com.

Also, I recommend following the Twitter accounts of the sportsbooks you wager with because the oddsmakers themselves usually post betting splits for key games on a given slate.

When to use the ‘fade the public’ angle

A sweet spot for being a contrarian bettor is being on the same side as the Pros and betting against the Joes. Typically, the presumed “sharp” money is the handle column in the table and “public” represents the total bets column.

Example:

  • Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (65% of the money, 33% of tickets)
  • Baltimore Ravens +1.5 (35% of the money, 67% of the tickets)

The professional bettors are backing the Chiefs in this mock betting split but the public is betting on the Ravens. This would be a good spot to use the “fade the public” angle since the money is flowing in the opposite direction.

Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

The best time to incorporate a “fade the public” angle into your handicap is with the games that draw more public action. These spots include almost all primetime NFL games, March Madness and the NBA, MLB and NHL postseasons.

While the strategy of “fading the public” is simple and sound, it’s often misused or overused. In fact, an argument can be made that overdoing it is more “square” than never knowingly taking a contrarian position.

A bettor who perhaps is a little trigger happy with the “fade the public” angle would be mistaken if they were to use that approach when wagering on most regular-season NBA, MLB or NHL games.

For example, most recreational bettors aren’t rushing to the sportsbook to wager on a Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins game in the middle of July. There’s a chance the “sharp” and “public” money are one and the same.

As the legalization of sports gambling grows the market becomes sharper and it’s less profitable to “fade the public”. However, since consistently making money when sports betting is rather difficult, a contrarian approach will always have merit.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1374]