Sportsbook Wire’s Geoff Clark discusses key numbers and how to use them when betting against the spread or Over/Under.
The saying “professional handicappers don’t bet teams, they bet numbers” has become a sports betting axiom. Even your average Joe understands the importance of key numbers in sports betting. Below, we’ll discuss what key numbers are and how you should factor them into your sports wagering.
Key numbers are the most common margin of victory and/or final scores in a given sport. Because of football’s scoring system, key numbers have more importance in the NFL and college football; however, we’ll also touch on how key numbers surface in other leagues.
Also see: Sports Betting Terms and Definitions
Key numbers in the NFL
Obviously, “3” and “7” are the two biggest key numbers in football since field goals are worth 3 points and a touchdown with an extra point conversion (PAT) is worth 7 points.
Research has found 14-15% of NFL games end in a 3-point margin of victory and 9-10% of games are decided by 7 points, according to Jeff Fogle of VSiN.com.
Getting a line of 3.5 or 7.5 points is known as betting “3 and the hook” and “7 and the hook”. Also, from an NFL wagering perspective, betting 2.5- and 6.5-point spreads are vital since games are often decided by 3 or 7 points.
Finding these numbers requires scouring listed prices across several sportsbooks in order to find the spreads with a hook or below a key number, buying points from a sportsbook for a particular game, or betting what’s known as a “teaser”.
Teasers
Oddsmakers have incorporated key number data into their pricing, which is why sportsbooks usually charge a premium if bettors would like to buy a half-point when a game is lined at either 3 or 7 points.
A teaser is a popular wager that allows you to adjust or move a line in multiple games but requires the bettor to win each game to cash the bet. Six-point teasers are the most common in NFL betting and are often used to move lines through key numbers.
For example, if the Miami Dolphins are 1.5-point road underdogs at the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams are 7.5-point home favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles, it could be profitable to “tease” the Dolphins up to 7.5-point underdogs and the Rams down to 1.5-point home favorites.
There are a variety of ways to get down on an NFL side with a key number but typically the most successful sports bettors find a way to profit by betting on, around or through key numbers.
Key numbers in other sports\
NBA
In the NBA, “7” is the biggest key number because that’s a three-possession margin in a basketball game and generally teams will stop fouling when down more than 6 points in the final moments.
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NHL
Key numbers aren’t really a thing for NHL puck lines but “5” is a key number for a total. This is especially true in the Stanley Cup Playoffs which usually feature lower-scoring games and professionals hammer the Under on 5.5-goal NHL totals in playoff games.
MLB
Similarly, most of the gambling action wagered on MLB sides involve the money lines but the key numbers for MLB totals are “7”, “9” and “11” since around 30% of games end with a total of 7, 9 or 11 runs scored.
If the next step to being a successful sports handicapper is “betting numbers, not teams” then factoring in key numbers is a must for every aspiring sharp.
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