Tag: SP+

Florida’s special teams remain on top in SP+ rankings after Week 4

Florida improved across the board in ESPN’s SP+ ratings and rankings after Week 4’s win.

The Florida Gators snapped a seven-game losing streak to Football Bowl Subdivision opponents on Saturday with a 45-28 victory at the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

The Week 4 win evened [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag]’s season record both overall (2-2) and in Southeastern Conference play (1-1). It also boosted the program’s morale while rumors continued to fly around the head coach’s tenure on Florida’s sidelines.

Beyond the emotional aspect of the triumph, it also gave the national media a modicum of confidence in a team that faces the toughest schedule in the sport this fall. Some of the computer models have been kind to the Orange and Blue, such as ESPN’s SP+.

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Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

Last week, the Gators were ranked No. 36 out of 134 schools with an overall 8.4 rating. After the road win in Starkville, they now ranked No. 33 with a 10.3 overall rating.

Even better, Florida’s special teams remain the top-ranked squad in the country per SP+ with a 0.4 rating. On offense, the team moved up from No. 21 with a 34.5 rating to No. 13 with a 36.7 rating; the defense remains ranked at No. 62 with a 26.8 rating — 0.2 better than last week.

SP+ Top 10 Teams

The Texas Longhorns take over the top spot in the SP+ rankings after Week 4, followed by the Ohio State Buckeyes, Alabama Crimson Tide, Ole Miss Rebels and Georgia Bulldogs, respectively.

The Tennesse Volunteers, Miami Hurricanes, Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions and Missouri Tigers, respectively, round out the top-10 teams.

About SP+

“SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is,” according to ESPN.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for the Gators

The Gators will be out of action for Week 5 due to their bye week. Florida’s next opponent will be the UCF Knights on Oct. 5 at 7:15 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

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ESPN’s SP+ prediction for Florida-Mississippi State in Week 4

The Gators have the upper hand in Starkville against Mississippi State, according to SP+ predictions.

The Florida football team hits the road in Week 4 to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville looking for its first FBS and SEC win of the 2024 campaign.

With embarrassing losses to the Miami Hurricanes in the opening week and the Texas A&M Aggies last week — both in the Swamp — the Gators hope a little time away from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium helps relieve some of the pressure building up under [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag] and his crew.

The good news is that ESPN writer Bill Connelly’s SP+ predictions this week favor the Orange and Blue on the road, foreseeing a 64% chance of victory by a margin of 5.5 points for Florida. The computer model projects a final score of 32-26.

Compare that with the spread for the game (UF, -4.5 points) and a Gators victory predicted by the ATS.

Napier and Co. sit at No. 36 out of 134 FBS schools (8.4 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s affair while the Bulldogs are No. 69 (0.3 rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for the Gators

Florida will play their first road game of the season as they travel up to Starkville to play against the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday, Sept. 21. Kickoff is set for noon ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.

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Florida’s special teams tops SP+ rankings after Week 3 loss

Would you believe that Florida has the best special teams squad in the country? Well, that’s what ESPN’s SP+ computer data says.

Florida football endured another embarrassing loss on its home field last Saturday after the Texas A&M Aggies came to town and earned their first true road game in nearly three years. The devastating defeat now has Billy Napier on the hottest head coach hot seat in the nation.

Everybody knew how tough things would be for the Gators this fall given that they are cursed with the hardest schedule in college football while also in the midst of a ground-up rebuild. Still, it has been brutal to watch this team continue to make the same mistakes it has made since before Napier’s arrival.

As the Orange and Blue flounders, the rest of the sports media has taken note and has dismissed Florida from the major polls while burying the Gators in their respective rankings. Even some of the computer models have lost faith in the Gainesville gang, but one particular metric remains rather bullish.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

ESPN’s SP+ data after Week 3 of college football action ranks Florida at No. 36 out of 134 schools with an overall 8.4 rating. That places the Gators between the No. 35 Virginia Tech Hokies (8.5) and No. 37 Memphis Tigers (8.3).

On offense, the Orange and Blue rank at No. 21 with a 34.5 rating while the defense ranks at No. 62 with a 26.6 rating. The Gators’ special teams somehow are the top-ranked squad in the nation with a 0.4 rating.

The Florida State Seminoles, who started the season at 0-3, are two spots ahead of Florida at No. 34 with an 8.8 rating.

SP+ Top 10 Teams

The Ohio State Buckeyes occupy the top spot after Week 3 in the SP+ rankings, followed by the Alabama Crimson Tide, Texas Longhorns, Ole Miss Rebels and Georgia Bulldogs to complete the top five.

The Tennesse Volunteers, Missouri Tigers, Oregon Ducks, Miami Hurricanes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish also respectively round out the top-10 teams.

About SP+

“SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is,” according to ESPN.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for the Gators

Florida will play their first road game of the season as they travel up to Starkville to play against the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday, Sept. 21. Kickoff is set for noon ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.

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ESPN’s SP+ prediction for Gators-Aggies in Week 3 SEC opener

SP+ gives the edge to TAMU this weekend but also thinks it will be a close game. The Gators have a good shot at pulling the upset at home.

Florida football prepares to host the Texas A&M Aggies this Saturday in the Swamp to open up its 2024 Southeastern Conference schedule. While the Gators are underdogs going into the Week 3 matchup, the numbers have been pretty close.

At the beginning of the week, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ picks for the third official weekend of college football, including the UF-TAMU game. His computer model projects a 56% chance of a win for the visitors, giving them a 2.5-point edge and a final score of 30-27.

Compare that with the spread for the game (3.5 points) and a Florida victory predicted by the ATS.

The Gators sit at No. 31 (9.9 rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s affair while the Aggies are No. 20 (14.9 rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Next up for the Gators

Florida will host Texas A&M inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 14. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on ABC.

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ESPN SP+ thinks Wisconsin’s Week 2 opponent is better than Western Michigan

ESPN SP+ thinks Wisconsin’s Week 2 opponent is better than Western Michigan

ESPN SP+ thinks Wisconsin is up against a tougher test in Week 2 after its less-than-convincing Week 1 win over Western Michigan.

The metric ranks Wisconsin’s Week 2 opponent South Dakota No. 102 overall in its full college football top 764 ranking. Western Michigan, meanwhile, is down at No. 127.

Related: Wisconsin two-deep depth chart for Week 2 vs. South Dakota includes minor changes

Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric is the only one that compiles a ranking for every college football program in the country: FBS, FCS and beyond. That creates the mentioned 764-team ranking. It’s the best point of comparison between FCS and FBS teams, as they are rarely judged against each other aside from the games on the field.

In simpler terms, SP+ thinks South Dakota is a better all-around team than Western Michigan — a Western Michigan team that gave Wisconsin trouble for 3 1/2 quarters in Week 1.

The only takeaway from Connelly’s ranking is that Wisconsin needs a better showing on Saturday afternoon when the Coyotes visit Madison. The Badgers are by far the more talented team, ranked 36 in the latest SP+ update. They badly need a complete, all-around, decisive victory before a Week 3 showdown with top-ranked Alabama (No. 2 in SP+).

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Florida football’s final preseason SP+ rankings, takeaways

One last look at ESPN’s SP+ predictions before the start of the 2024 college football campaign.

The 2024 college football campaign’s opening kickoff is just a couple of weeks away and the preseason predictions have been coming in like hotcakes ahead of the gridiron gauntlet.

The Florida Gators are in an unenviable position of possessing one of — if not the — hardest schedules in the sport this fall. However, Billy Napier and his army of staffers have been working hard to rebuild a once-proud program and hopefully, their efforts come to fruition in 2024.

ESPN released its final preseason SP+ rankings and takeaways for college football this week, and the outlook is mildly optimistic through this lens. The Orange and Blue are 11th in the Southeastern Conference when it comes to SP+, but still crack the national top 25 coming in at No. 23.

Here’s a look at how the SEC compares in the final SP+ rankings.

SEC Rank Team Overall Offense Defense Special Teams
1 Georgia 1 3 5 7
2 Alabama 4 7 8 2
3 Texas 5 4 12 17
4 Ole Miss 8 6 16 26
5 LSU 10 2 38 83
6 Missouri 11 8 19 45
7 Oklahoma 13 17 13 95
8 Texas A&M 14 11 24 73
9 Tennessee 15 14 20 52
10 Kentucky 22 28 31 39
11 Florida 23 18 41 9
12 Auburn 25 38 25 27
13 South Carolina 35 59 30 12
14 Arkansas 44 39 53 6
15 Mississippi State 55 67 52 50
16 Vanderbilt 89 68 104 72

The teams SP+ likes more

“Since SP+ is a power rating, it can still rank Oklahoma 13th while projecting the Sooners to win an average of only 7.6 games, just as it can rank Auburn (7.1 wins) 25th, Kentucky (7.0) 22nd and poor Florida (5.4) 23rd. But if your goal is to rank teams by their potential success levels, you probably aren’t putting any of these teams in your top 25.

“AP voters certainly didn’t: Kentucky earned just three points in the AP poll (the equivalent of ranking 40th), Auburn earned two (41st) and Florida earned none.”

SP+ vs. conventional wisdom

“The preseason polls don’t differ much from the top of the SP+ projections, and frankly, that’s disappointing. It’s a lot more fun to rail against outrageous, irrational bowl bumps and whatnot, but the top five in the AP and coaches polls are the same as the SP+ top five (albeit in a slightly different order), and no team in the AP top 11 is more than two spots away from its SP+ ranking.”

Florida’s season opener for 2024

The Florida Gators and No. 19 Miami Hurricanes square off on Aug. 31 in Gainesville, Florida, to open their schedule for the 2024 season. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ABC Sports.

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Florida finishes surprisingly high in final 2023 SP+ rankings from ESPN

Florida finished the 2023 season with a 5-7 record, but the Gators still managed to crack the top 50 in the final update to the ESPN SP+ rankings.

Despite finishing the 2023 season with a 5-7 record, the Florida Gators ended up ranked No. 41 in the country, according to ESPN’s final SP+ rankings.

Bill Connelly, the inventor of the SP+ system, defines the metric as a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is intended to be predictive and forward-facing, which should be considered when interpreting the year-end rankings.

Florida’s offense finished the season ranked 38th in the country with a 31.1 rating, while the defense underperformed its way to 60th with a 26.0 rating. The much-maligned special teams unit in Gainesville finished the season ranked ninth in the country with a 1.7 rating.

Only two teams with a sub-.500 record finished ahead of Florida — No. 35 TCU (5-7) and No. 36 Auburn (6-7).

Connelly notes that bowl season adjustments need to be made with his system. Some things make sense, such as Georgia jumping to No. 2 following a dominant win over now-No. 9 Florida State. Meanwhile, the College Football Playoff runner-up Washington dropped all the way to No. 13 with the loss.

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Wisconsin remains SP+’s best team in the Big Ten West

Wisconsin remains SP+’s best team in the Big Ten West

Wisconsin fell 24-10 to Ohio State on Saturday, falling to 5-3 on the season and 3-2 in Big Ten play. Somehow, some way, the team is still technically tied for first place in the Big Ten West.

The Badgers were sizable underdogs to the No. 3-ranked Buckeye team. So despite the loss, the team did not fall in ESPN’s SP+. Wisconsin remains ranked No. 27 in the metric, with the No. 63 offense and No. 12 defense.

As has been the case all season, the Badgers are still SP+’s top-ranked team in the West division. Unfortunately, the division is not solely decided based on Bill Connelly’s numbers.

  1. Wisconsin (No. 27)
  2. Iowa (No. 36)
  3. Minnesota (No. 49)
  4. Nebraska (No. 51)
  5. Illinois (No. 62)
  6. Purdue (No. 82)
  7. Northwestern (No. 92)

Good news for the Badgers: four Big Ten games remain against Indiana (No. 95), Northwestern (No. 92), Nebraska (No. 51) and Minnesota (No. 49). It’s a winnable final stretch.

Gators rise in ESPN’s SP+ rankings after bye week

Florida moves up one spot despite resting during the bye week in ESPN’s SP+ rankings.

Another week of college football has gone by, which means numerous variations of rankings are being released one by one.

ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly consumes hours of football throughout the week and releases weekly editions of his SP+ rankings. The rankings are based on “a tempo-and-opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.”

This week, the Florida Gators ranked at No. 30, moving up one spot despite resting during the bye week. The Gators were in idle, but the UCF Knights suffered a 31-29 loss after traveling to take on the Oklahoma Sooners.

The Gators’ overall rating rose to 9.2 — a rise of two decimal places. The offense was rated with at 32.0 and the defense earned a 23.1 rating. This could be best summarized as a solid offense with a defense that could use some work after its last contests against South Carolina and Kentucky.

Connelly invented the SP+ system during his stint at Football Outsiders in 2008, and summarizes his thought process while ranking the teams.

“If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall,” Connelly said. “If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

The Florida Gators will attempt to dethrone the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. EDT and will broadcast on CBS Sports.

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Wisconsin remains the Big Ten West favorite in ESPN SP+’s Week 4 rankings

Wisconsin is miles ahead of the rest of the West:

Wisconsin played its best game of the young season Friday night, defeating Purdue 38-17 to improve to 1-0 in Big Ten play.

The win improved Badgers fans’ outlook for the rest of the year and Big Ten West race. It did also, however, see the team fall a few spots in ESPN SP+’s Week 4 ranking.

Wisconsin entered the matchup ranked No. 25 in the Week 3 ranking, with the No. 44-ranked offense and No. 15 defense. After the convincing victory, the team now sits at No. 27 overall, with the nation’s No. 39-ranked offense and No. 18 defense.

Related: Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 4: The Big Ten West is really, really, bad

The Badgers do remain the clear favorites to win the Big Ten West, however. They remain ranked behind the three top Big Ten teams of Michigan (No. 1), Ohio State (No. 3) and Penn State (No. 10), but sit far ahead of the closest West contender Iowa at No. 39.

Wisconsin is off this week before returning home for an interesting crossover matchup with a pesky Rutgers team. Then the schedule heats up, with critical games upcoming against Illinois, Iowa and Ohio State.