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SMU at Cincinnati odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s SMU at Cincinnati odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The SMU Mustangs (10-20, 5-12 AAC) go up against the Cincinnati Bearcats (19-11, 10-7) on Sunday at Fifth Third Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the SMU vs. Cincinnati odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

The Mustangs were blown out by Memphis 81-62 as 6.5-point home underdogs on Thursday. SMU has lost 2 consecutive games and has won only 3 of its last 10 contests.

The Bearcats haven’t played since last Sunday when they lost 76-73 to Memphis despite covering as 5.5-point road underdogs. Cincinnati has gone 5-5 in its last 10 games.

This will be their 2nd meeting. The Mustangs covered as 5-point home underdogs in the 54-52 loss and the Under hit in the 1st meeting on Jan. 14.

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SMU at Cincinnati odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:04 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): SMU +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Cincinnati -650 (bet $650 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): SMU +11.5 (-115) | Cincinnati -11.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 145.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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SMU at Cincinnati picks and predictions

Prediction

Cincinnati 80, SMU 67

Moneyline

AVOID.

The Bearcats should be able to win with ease at home, but taking them straight up at the current odds (-650) isn’t worth the risk.

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Against the spread

CINCINNATI -11.5 (-105) feels like the right pick considering all the numbers. The Mustangs have lost by 14-plus points in each of their last 3 setbacks.

SMU is also 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 road games, while Cincinnati is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.

Over/Under

OVER 145.5 (-115) is the lean in this matchup with both teams averaging a combined 147.4 points per game. SMU also allows 74.8 points per game (312th in the nation) and Cincinnati makes a solid 35.8% of its 3-point attempts (95th in the nation).

The Mustangs have hit the Over in 12 of their last 14 games following a loss, and the Bearcats are 3-0-1 to the Over in their last 4 games following an ATS win.

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SMU at Cincinnati odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s SMU Mustangs at Cincinnati Bearcats odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The SMU Mustangs (8-2, 4-2 AAC) take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (10-0, 6-0) Saturday at Nippert Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the SMU at Cincinnati odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

Still sitting outside the top four in the College Football Playoffs rankings at No. 5, the No. 3-ranked Bearcats need to make a statement.

They’ll need style points, and against a quality SMU side, they will be there for the taking. The Bearcats have had a few close calls lately, beating Tulsa by 8 and Navy by 7. However, they remain one of the few undefeated teams.

As for SMU, it started 7-0 before losing to Houston and Memphis for a short two-game losing streak. It bounced back with a win over UCF last week. It will enter as a heavy underdog vs. Cincy, hoping to shock the college football landscape if it can leave Ohio with a ninth win.

Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

SMU at Cincinnati odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:57 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: SMU +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Cincinnati -410 (bet $410 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): SMU +11.5 (-115) | Cincinnati -11.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 64.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)

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SMU at Cincinnati odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Cincinnati 45, SMU 31

Money line

PASS. SMU was able to get as high as No. 19 in the rankings prior to taking on Houston and losing.

It is a solid opponent, and I wouldn’t think about laying -410 on Cincinnati, although it should be the better, safer side. The +310 for a road dog against a clearly superior side also seems like a bad risk.

Look to the points for value.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to CINCINNATI -11.5 (-115) as the Bearcats should flex their strength at home.

Cincinnati should know it needs to put in on SMU. Crazy enough, the Bearcats rank 56th in both passing and rushing. They can do it both ways.

Of 130 teams, SMU is allowing the 121st most passing yards per game. Cincinnati senior QB Desmond Ridder has thrown for 2,425 yards and a career-high 22 touchdowns. He should be able to thrash a weak SMU pass defense.

If Ridder can get going, Cincinnati should dominant. It already ranks 9th in points per game. I expect the team in need of a blowout to do just that despite recent struggles to dominant inferior competition.

Over/Under

BET OVER 64.5 (-117) as both teams have absolutely dynamite offensive attack.

While we didn’t mention SMU’s offense much, it actually ranks ahead of Cincinnati. It put up 55 points apiece in two of its last four games.

SMU has been wildly successful behind Oklahoma transfer QB Tanner Mordecai, who could be a 2022 NFL Draft pick. He’s proven it this season, throwing for over 3,264 yards and 37 touchdowns.

However, UC has arguably the best two cornerbacks in the AAC and arguably one of the best in college football with CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner. They should make a difference, enough to slightly throw Mordecai off his game.

Nonetheless, behind Mordecai and Ridder, this game should be an absolute thriller.

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First look: SMU at Cincinnati odds and lines

Previewing the SMU at Cincinnati Week 12 matchup, with college football odds, trends and head-to-head records.

The SMU Mustangs (8-2, 4-2 AAC) visit the No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats (10-0, 6-0) for an American Athletic Conference crossover battle Saturday. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Nippert Stadium. Below, we look at the SMU vs. Cincinnati odds and lines; check back for our college football picks and predictions.

SMU stopped a two-game skid with a 55-28 win over Central Florida Saturday. The Mustangs rambled for 631 total yards, their most in a single game since Sept. 19, 2020. Two backs rushed for 90-plus yards, and QB Tanner Mordecai completed 68.5% of his passes, totaling 377 yards while throwing three touchdowns. SMU battled back from an early 14-7 deficit with 31 straight points across the first and second quarters.

The Bearcats downed South Florida 45-28 Friday. Behind 304 passing and 65 rushing yards by QB Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati rolled up 512 total yards of offense. That output marked the program’s highest in a road game since Sept. 28, 2019. Now the Bearcats are back at home where they haven’t lost a game since Nov. 10, 2017.

Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

SMU at Cincinnati odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8:03 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: SMU +330 (bet $100 to win $330) | Cincinnati -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): SMU +11.5, -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Cincinnati -11.5, -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 65.5, O: -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | U: -117 (bet $117 to win $100)

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2021 betting stats:

  • ML: SMU 8-2 | Cincinnati 10-0
  • ATS: SMU 6-4 | Cincinnati 5-5
  • O/U: SMU 5-5 | Cincinnati 5-5

SMU at Cincinnati head-to-head

Southern Methodist and Cincinnati have met on the gridiron five times, all since 2013. Including a 42-13 win last year and two straight victories over the Mustangs, the Bearcats lead the all-time series 4-1.

UC rushed for 313 yards and controlled last year’s game wire-to-wire. Ridder ran for 179 yards and three scores, and the Bearcats defense held SMU to 290 total yards.

The Under hit in last year’s meeting and is 5-0 in this series.

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