The SMU Mustangs (8-2, 4-2 AAC) take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (10-0, 6-0) Saturday at Nippert Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the SMU at Cincinnati odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Still sitting outside the top four in the College Football Playoffs rankings at No. 5, the No. 3-ranked Bearcats need to make a statement.
They’ll need style points, and against a quality SMU side, they will be there for the taking. The Bearcats have had a few close calls lately, beating Tulsa by 8 and Navy by 7. However, they remain one of the few undefeated teams.
As for SMU, it started 7-0 before losing to Houston and Memphis for a short two-game losing streak. It bounced back with a win over UCF last week. It will enter as a heavy underdog vs. Cincy, hoping to shock the college football landscape if it can leave Ohio with a ninth win.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
SMU at Cincinnati odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:57 a.m. ET.
- Money line: SMU +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Cincinnati -410 (bet $410 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): SMU +11.5 (-115) | Cincinnati -11.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 64.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)
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SMU at Cincinnati odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Cincinnati 45, SMU 31
Money line
PASS. SMU was able to get as high as No. 19 in the rankings prior to taking on Houston and losing.
It is a solid opponent, and I wouldn’t think about laying -410 on Cincinnati, although it should be the better, safer side. The +310 for a road dog against a clearly superior side also seems like a bad risk.
Look to the points for value.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to CINCINNATI -11.5 (-115) as the Bearcats should flex their strength at home.
Cincinnati should know it needs to put in on SMU. Crazy enough, the Bearcats rank 56th in both passing and rushing. They can do it both ways.
Of 130 teams, SMU is allowing the 121st most passing yards per game. Cincinnati senior QB Desmond Ridder has thrown for 2,425 yards and a career-high 22 touchdowns. He should be able to thrash a weak SMU pass defense.
If Ridder can get going, Cincinnati should dominant. It already ranks 9th in points per game. I expect the team in need of a blowout to do just that despite recent struggles to dominant inferior competition.
Over/Under
BET OVER 64.5 (-117) as both teams have absolutely dynamite offensive attack.
While we didn’t mention SMU’s offense much, it actually ranks ahead of Cincinnati. It put up 55 points apiece in two of its last four games.
SMU has been wildly successful behind Oklahoma transfer QB Tanner Mordecai, who could be a 2022 NFL Draft pick. He’s proven it this season, throwing for over 3,264 yards and 37 touchdowns.
However, UC has arguably the best two cornerbacks in the AAC and arguably one of the best in college football with CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner. They should make a difference, enough to slightly throw Mordecai off his game.
Nonetheless, behind Mordecai and Ridder, this game should be an absolute thriller.
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