In a 12-round WBO welterweight title bout, Terence Crawford and Shawn Porter meet Saturday at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino in Las Vegas. The fight is expected to start at approximately 11 p.m. ET. Below, we break down the Crawford vs. Porter odds and lines, with boxing picks and predictions.
Crawford, considered to be one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, gets a chance to break out against a top-notch opponent, quieting some of his critics who have questioned his opponents.
Crawford has posted six consecutive KO/TKO wins, including last time out in The Bubble at MGM Grand against Kell Brook on Nov. 14, 2020. Prior to that, he pushed past Egidijus Kavaliauskas at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 14, 2019.
A fight against Porter is a huge step up in competition for Crawford, so we’ll see how he fares. That’s been the knock on Crawford, that his promotion has shielded him from fighting some of the best fighters available.
Porter, who was raised in Northeast Ohio, and now fights out of Las Vegas, is looking to put on a show. His nicknamed “Showtime”, would be perfect for promotion if this fight weren’t televised on ESPN+ pay-per-view instead of the network is his nickname.
Porter lost via split-decision to Errol Spence Jr. on Sept. 28, 2019, losing his WBC welterweight title and a shot at snagging the IBF belt. But after topping Sebastian Formella at the Microsoft Theater in Los Angeles last time out on Aug. 22, 2020, he is back, and looking for a piece of Crawford for the top spot in the WBO.
Crawford vs. Porter odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:25 p.m. ET.
- Terence Crawford: -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100) | Shawn Porter: +500 (bet $100 to win $500)
- Total Rounds: 10.5 (Over: -260 | Under: +180)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes: -180 | No: +130
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Crawford (-1000) is a heavy favorite with an implied win probability of 90.91%. A $100 bet on the favorite would return of a profit of just $10.00 with a victory as a chalky wager.
Crawford vs. Porter tale of the tape
Terence Crawford (-1000)
Record: 37-0-0 (28 KOs)
Height: 5-foot-8
Reach: 74 inches
Stance: Southpaw
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Shawn Porter (+500)
Record: 31-3-1 (17 KOs)
Height: 5-foot-7
Reach: 69.5 inches
Stance: Orthodox
Crawford vs. Porter predictions and picks
I considered Porter (+500) for the upset, as there is just no value in playing Crawford (-1000). You have to lay $100 to win just $10 on the champ, and that’s no good. While I expect Porter to make Crawford work for every point Saturday, I don’t think he is able to pull off the upset.
Crawford will use his 4.5-inch reach advantage to keep the challenger at a distance, only moving in close when he decides. That’s a huge advantage that cannot be overlooked. For personal reasons, I’d love to see Porter will outright, but I can’t very well back emotions with good money.
Instead of picking a winner, unless you are hellbent on backing Porter, consider YES (-180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE instead. Porter is a tough customer, and he isn’t going to get knocked out. He will force Crawford to box and wow the judges, winning on points. I think he does that, although wouldn’t be shocked in the least to see a split-decision here, too. That’s how razor-thin the margin could be.
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