The Seattle Mariners (41-39) and Toronto Blue Jays (41-36) play the second game of a three-game set Wednesday with a 7:07 p.m. ET first pitch at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, N.Y. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Justus Sheffield is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 5-7 with a 5.69 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 68 IP over 13 starts.
Sheffield enters with losses in each of his past three outings, and his struggles can be tied to his inability to keep the ball in the park. He has served up two home runs in each of his past two outings and eight homers in 19 innings in June.
LHP Steven Matz is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. He is 7-3 with a 4.26 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 69 2/3 IP over 13 starts.
Matz won last time out in Boston allowing just one run, four hits and two walks with eight strikeouts across 5 1/3 innings. He he has lost just once in the past seven starts. Unlike Sheffield, he has kept the ball in the yard allowing just two homers across the past 21 2/3 innings.
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Mariners at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Blue Jays -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (+100) | Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Blue Jays 8, Mariners 4
Money line (ML)
The Blue Jays (-225) have won two in a row, and Matz has been rolling right along. But I don’t like to risk more than two times my potential return and prefer to play the run line, which is a much better value.
PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-120) have outscored the opposition 26-9 during their three-game win streak, including 9-3 in the series opener against the Mariners +1.5 (+100) Tuesday. In fact, Toronto has won by two or more runs in each of its past five victories, and 12 of their past 13 wins dating back to June 5 have been by two-plus runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 10.5 (-110) is a great play here mainly due to Sheffield’s inability to keep the ball in the park. That will be especially problematic at the smallish Sahlen Field in Buffalo, N.Y. Toronto is averaging 8.0 runs per game so far on the homestand in its adopted home, and they’ll load up against the erratic Sheffield.
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