Tag: Seattle Mariners odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (74-62) visit the Arizona Diamondbacks (45-92) Sunday for a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch in the finale of their three-game interleague series at Chase Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle won the first two games of the set by a combined score of 14-10 and the Mariners cashed the Over on their 72.5-win season win total with their victory in the series opener.

Season series: Mariners lead 2-0.

RHP Chris Flexen is Seattle’s projected starter. He is 11-5 with a 3.52 ERA (145 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 25 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Seattle’s 4-3 home loss to the Houston Astros Monday.
  • 2021 road stats: 5-1 with a 4.55 ERA (63 1/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB across 11 starts.

LHP Tyler Gilbert gets the start for the D-Backs. He is 1-2 with a 2.93 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 over four starts and three bullpen outings in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-5, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K Monday at the San Diego Padres.
  • Gilbert’s first MLB start was a no-hitter against the San Diego Padres Aug. 14.

Mariners at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Mariners 7, Diamondbacks 4

Money line (ML)

BET the MARINERS (-130) for 1 unit because there are so many pro-Seattle situational trends that bode well for the Mariners.

For example, Seattle is 4-0 in its last four games against a lefty starter, 6-0 in the last six games against a team with a winning percentage below .400 and the D-Backs are 1-10 in interleague games this season.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the MARINERS -1.5 (+125) only because I much prefer Seattle’s money line but there are a few reasons to sprinkle on the Mariners with a plus-money payout.

Seattle has the fifth-best cover rate on the road at 40-27 ATS and the Mariners are better in the three most important phases of baseball: starting and relief pitching, and hitting.

However, my preference is to stick with Seattle’s money line but MARINERS -1.5 (+125) will most likely be a winning bet.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a small wager because these teams have a combined 16-10-1 O/U record in interleague games and have played more to the Over in both of their location-based trends.

Also, we are seeing a little “reverse line movement” as nearly 80% of the bets placed are with the Under, according to Pregame.com but the Mariners-Diamondbacks total has more vig on the Over, which indicates oddsmakers would like more pro-Under money.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Kansas City Royals (57-70) drop by the T-Mobile Park Friday for the second game of a four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (69-59) at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Royals vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

K.C. won the series opener Friday 6-4 thanks to a 6th-inning grand slam by C Salvador Perez to key the victory.

Season series: Royals lead 1-0.

LHP Kris Bubic is the projected starter for the Royals. Bubic is 4-6 with a 4.94 ERA (93 IP, 51 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 across 14 starts and eight relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-2, with a 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 9 K Saturday at the Chicago Cubs.
  • 2021 road splits: 2-5 with a 5.64 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.41 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB in seven starts and four bullpen outings.

RHP Logan Gilbert makes his 18th start for the Mariners. Gilbert is 5-5 with a 5.16 ERA (82 IP, 47 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9.

  • Last outing: Loss, 15-1, with 4 2/3 IP, 9 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K Saturday at the Houston Astros.
  • Gilbert grades in the 13th percentile for hard-hit rate, 15th percentile for exit velocity (EV), 40th percentile in expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and 58th percentile in expected wOBA (xwOBA).

Royals at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:02 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Royals +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mariners -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-150) | Mariners -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Mariners 5, Royals 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the MARINERS (-190) only because I’d prefer to parlay Seattle’s money line with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.

Seattle is 27-22 overall vs. lefty starters while K.C. is 36-52 against right-handed starters and the Mariners have an edge in all three phases of the game (starting and bullpen pitching and hitting).

Kansas City’s lineup ranks 26th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching with the 21st-worst hard-hit rate.

Also, Bubic grades in the 34th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, xSLG, EV, K% and BB%. On top of that, K.C.’s bullpen ranks 23rd in K-BB%, 24th in both xFIP and SIERA.

Both the pros and Joes are backing the Mariners in this spot which has caused oddsmakers to move Seattle’s money line up from the -160 opener to the current number according to Pregame.com.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because K.C. is 31-25 ATS as a road underdog while Seattle is 6-16 ATS as a home favorite. On top of that, the Mariners are just 2-5 ATS as home favorites against left-handed starters with a minus-29.8% return on investment.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” against the market that’s backing the Over at more than an 80% clip according to Pregame.com.

This is what’s known as a “line freeze“, which is a red flag. The oddsmakers haven’t moved the total down from the opener despite the one-sided action so they might be trying to entice more bets on the Over.

The Mariners are 6-15-1 O/U as home favorites, the Royals are 23-27-6 O/U as road underdogs and Seattle’s lineup is 26th in wRC+ and 28th in wOBA vs. left-handed pitching.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (67-58) visit the Oakland Athletics (70-55) Monday to begin a three-game set at Oakland Coliseum. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle prevented a three-game sweep by the Houston Astros with a 6-3 extra-innings victory Sunday and has won seven of the last 10 games.

Oakland dropped the last two of a three-game interleague set with the San Francisco Giants this past weekend and is just 3-7 over the past 10 games.

Season series: Mariners lead 6-4.

LHP Marco Gonzales makes his 18th start for the Mariners. Gonzales is 5-5 with a 4.10 ERA (94 1/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K Wednesday at the Texas Rangers.
  • Gonzales is 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 3 BB and 10 K in two starts against Oakland this season.

RHP Paul Blackburn makes his second start for the A’s. Blackburn lost his first outing at the Chicago White Sox 3-2 Wednesday with a stat line of 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 3 K.

Mariners at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Athletics -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-175) | Athletics -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Mariners 4, Athletics 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the MARINERS (+115) for a half unit because they have the edge in starting and bullpen pitching.

For instance, Blackburn only gets the nod because A’s starting RHP Chris Bassitt is on the IL after taking a line drive off the head. Also, Gonzales is 2-0 in August with a 0.67 ERA (27 IP, 2 ER) and 21/4 K/BB.

Furthermore, Oakland’s lineup has been mediocre at home (23rd in wOBA and 14th in wRC+). On top of that, the A’s are just 5-7 with a minus-21.5% return on investment in home games against lefty starters as -140 favorite or less.

Lastly, I’m cool with fading the market with Seattle because the Mariners are just 3 games back of the A’s in the AL Wild Card standings, but I don’t think the betting public is hip to how feisty the Mariners are.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Even though Seattle has been money as an underdog this year with a 62.9% cover rate at 61-36 ATS, we still have to PASS on the Mariners +1.5 (-175) because their implied win probability is 63.64% at this price point. Maybe I’d lay it with Seattle’s run line if it were priced south of -160.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a quarter unit because the presumed sharp side of the market is backing the Under while the average Joe is betting the Over (according to Pregame.com)

In addition, Mariners are 5-12 O/U when Gonzales is on the mound, and the A’s are 4-8 O/U at home when facing a left-handed starter as a -140 favorite or lower.

However, my hesitancy is due to the slight “reverse line movement” we are seeing in the betting market. Despite more money being on the Under, the Over has the higher vig, which is a red flag.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (64-56) continue their three-game set at Globe Life Stadium against the Texas Rangers (42-77) Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle beat Texas in the series opener 3-1 Wednesday behind a strong performance from starting LHP Tyler Anderson who had 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 4 K.

Season series: Mariners lead 11-6.

LHP Marco Gonzales makes his 17th start for the Mariners. Gonzales is 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA (89 IP, 43 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, CG, 9 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 9 K against the Rangers Thursday.
  • Gonzales is 1-1 against Texas this season with a 4.42 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 15 H, 3 BB and 17 K in three starts.
  • vs. Rangers on the current roster (94 PA): 2.07 FIP with a .242 batting average (BA), .281 wOBA, .377 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.5 K% and 85.6 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Matt Foltynewicz gets the nod for the Rangers. Foltynewicz is 2-11 with a 5.66 ERA (124 IP, 78 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 23 starts.

  • Last outing: 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K in Texas’s 3-1 loss at the Mariners Thursday.
  • Foltynewicz is 0-3 against Seattle this season with a 4.13 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 0.95 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in five starts.
  • vs. Mariners on the current roster (122 PA): 5.06 FIP with a .207 BA, .291 wOBA, .399 xSLG, 17.2 K% and 88.9 mph EV.

Mariners at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:04 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Rangers +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners -1.5 (-105) | Rangers +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Mariners 5, Rangers 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the MARINERS (-180) for a quarter unit only because there’s a line freeze with more than 80% of the action being on Seattle but the money line hasn’t moved since the opener.

The other reason for the “lean” is the price pushing itself out of the normal value range.

However, the Mariners have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen and starting pitching and hitting) hence Seattle being a massive favorite.

Also, Seattle is in contention for an AL Wild Card berth and Texas has nothing to play for so I’d rather parlay the pricy MARINERS (-180) with another favorite for a better payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARINERS -1.5 (-105) have been a great team to back on the run line on the road (35-23 ATS), in AL West contests (28-22 ATS), and as road favorites (3-2 ATS).

Conversely, the Rangers are 27-33 ATS at home, 22-23 ATS as home underdogs and 28-29 ATS in games against divisional foes.

However, Texas is covering nearly 50% of its games in the situational trends listed above and three of the five Mariners-Rangers meetings Foltynewicz has started were decided by one run.

“LEAN” to the MARINERS -1.5 (-105) for a half unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for 1 unit because the Mariners-Rangers have cashed the Under in four of their last five meetings and both lineups rank in the bottom 10 in wRC+ and wOBA this month with the Rangers being in dead-last across most hitting metrics.

Furthermore, the Mariners and Rangers combined for seven or fewer runs in four of Foltynewicz’s five starts against Seattle and in two of Gonzales’ three starts vs. Texas.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (57-50) continue their three-game series at the Tampa Bay Rays (64-43) Tuesday with first pitch from Tropicana Field scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle won the first game of the series Monday, 8-2, as the Mariners roughed up Rays starting RHP Michael Wacha for 6 earned runs. Seattle’s 1B Ty France stood out by hitting 3-for-5 with 1 home run and 3 RBI.

Season series: Mariners lead 5-0.

LHP Yusei Kikuchi makes his 20th start for the Mariners. Kikuchi is 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA (114 1/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-4, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 7 K Wednesday against the Houston Astros.
  • Kikuchi beat Tampa June 18 with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Seattle’s 5-1 home victory.

RHP Luis Patino is on the mound for the Rays. Patino 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 over six starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 14-0, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday against the New York Yankees.
  • 2021 home splits: 1-1 with a 0.61 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 4 BB and 16 K in three starts and one bullpen outing.

Mariners at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rays -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-160) | Rays -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Rays 5, Mariners 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the RAYS (-170) for a half unit – if at all – because we are getting the worst of the number as there has been “sharp” line movement toward Tampa.

Steam on the Rays has pushed them up from a -135 money line favorite on the opener to the current price based on the following reasons: Patino’s fantastic numbers at home, Tampa’s clear-cut edge in relief pitching and the recent acquisition of DH Nelson Cruz should improve the Rays’ hitting vs. left-handed pitching.

First of all, the Rays’ relievers are ranked first or second as a unit in WAR, SIERA, FIP, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate.

While Seattle’s bullpen has pitched well this season, we saw a Mariners collapse Sunday against the Texas Rangers thanks in large part to Seattle trading away awesome closing RHP Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline.

Also, Tampa’s lineup struggled against lefty pitching during the first half of the season which prompted the Rays to trade for Cruz who’s deadly vs. left-handed pitching. Moreover, Cruz is 4-for-5 lifetime against Kikuchi with 2 home runs 100.6 mph exit velocity.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since I don’t “like” Tampa enough to lay it with the Rays -1.5 (+125).

Furthermore, Tampa is 18-23 ATS as a home favorite and Seattle is 27-20 as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) for a half unit because we are seeing “reverse line movement” despite one-sided action and Over-friendly trends which are most certainly baked into the price.

For instance, according to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the bets placed are on the Over but the Under is heavily juiced and is heading to a flat 8-run total. It’s always a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

That said, Seattle is 30-16-1 O/U as a road underdog and the Over has cashed in three of the five Mariners-Rays meetings this season.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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