Seattle Mariners betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets – Page 29

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (82-69) and Oakland Athletics (82-69) continue a four-game AL West series at Oakland Coliseum Wednesday. First pitch is slated for at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 12-6 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 through 162 1/3 IP over 28 starts.

Current Oakland batters own an aggregate .638 OPS against him.
Has seen his K/9 and BB/9 head the wrong way over recent starts. Has 11 K and 6 BB across three starts in September. Ground-ball percentage has dropped over the same span.
Owns a 4.32 ERA and 1.40 WHIP away from Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home park.

LHP Cole Irvin is the projected starting pitcher for the Athletics. He is 10-13 with a 3.94 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 through 164 1/3 IP spanning 29 starts.

Yields a lot of fly balls but has been helped along by a friendly 8.8% HR/FB rate.
Coughed up 7 ER over 2 1/3 IP at Toronto in his first start this month but has allowed just 3 ER over 13 IP since. His numbers have fallen off in the last month with a 5.90 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over his last six starts.

Mariners at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Athletics -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-180) | Athletics -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Prediction

Athletics 6, Mariners 4

Money line (ML)

In a stretch that includes Seattle sweeping a two-game set at Oakland Aug. 23-24 and taking the first two games of this series, the Mariners are 14-5 over their last 19 road games.

The A’s were playing good ball before this series, as Oakland had been 12-8 over its previous 20 games.

Seattle holds a 10-4 lead in the season series, but there is plenty of analytic skepticism toward the Mariners’ numbers and winning percentage. The ATHLETICS (-140) are the lean, but figure the run line as having more value.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

These teams going into Wednesday with the same record presents a decent example of how records can be misleading. The Mariners have averaged 4.26 runs per game while allowing 4.64. The Athletics have scored 4.58 RPG while yielding 4.15.

Seattle has gone 31-18 in 1-run games and Oakland is just 21-25 in those spots. These figures signal a Mariners club overextended with its record.

The A’s have notched solid offensive numbers over most of the second half and have a fine .757 OPS over their last 41 games.

BACK THE ATHLETICS -1.5 (+145).

Over/Under (O/U)

Expected-ERA figures for both starters are nearly a run higher than their surface ERAs. Both sides have some Statcast quality-of-contact metrics that feed into an Over lean as well.

The Oakland bullpen has some season numbers that tease out an artificially suppressed ERA and the Seattle ‘pen has scuffled of late.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-108).

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Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (81-69) and Oakland Athletics (82-68) meet Tuesday to continue a four-game AL West series at Oakland Coliseum. First pitch is slated for at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Marco Gonzales is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 8-5 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 across 124 1/3 IP through 22 starts.

Current Oakland batters own an aggregate .774 OPS against him.
Coming off making a season-high 110 pitches in his last start (3 ER over 6 IP against the Boston Red Sox).
Owns a second-half ERA of 2.53 through 11 starts.

RHP Paul Blackburn is the projected starting pitcher for the Athletics. Blackburn is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 over 27 1/3 IP across six starts.

Has been hindered by a .341 batting average on balls in play.
Has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in three of his last five starts. That includes an Aug. 23 turn against Seattle (5 2/3 IP, 2 ER).

Mariners at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:27 p.m. ET.

Money line: Mariners +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Athletics -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-180) | Athletics -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Prediction

Athletics 5, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

The Mariners are continuing with a road trip that opened by taking two of three games at Kansas City over the weekend. In a stretch that includes Seattle sweeping a two-game set at Oakland Aug. 23-24 and taking Monday’s series opener 4-2 the Mariners are 13-5 over their last 18 road games.

The Athletics were 12-8 over their previous 20 games before dropping Monday’s opener.

Seattle holds a 9-4 lead in the season series, but the A’s are a solid play with the way they’ve hit Gonzales. TAKE OAKLAND (-140).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The risk here is well-rewarded, and the A’s have notched solid offensive numbers of late (.748 OPS in September).

BACK the ATHLETICS -1.5 (+145).

Over/Under (O/U)

The Under was a solid winning play on Monday. There are a few cross signals for this one, though. A batter’s breeze (which hurts Gonzales as a fly-ball pitcher) is added to the mix. PASS.

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Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (80-69) and Oakland Athletics (82-67) swing into a four-game AL West series with Monday night affair at the Oakland Coliseum. First pitch is slated for at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Tyler Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. In 27 starts this season, Anderson is 6-9 with a 4.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 in 152 1/3 IP.

Owns a 4.93 ERA away from home (5.52 road ERA since 2019).
Current Oakland bats own a .776 OPS against him.

LHP Sean Manaea is the projected starting pitcher for the Athletics. He is 10-9 with a 3.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 in 161 2/3 IP over 29 starts.

Coming off a Wednesday clunker at Kansas City. Allowed 5 ER on 9 hits in 5 IP. Has had other missteps in a down period since mid-August: owns a 6.00 ERA over his last six starts.
Has held current Mariners batters to an aggregate .587 OPS, .106 isolated power. Owns a 16-inning 0.56 ERA against Seattle in 2021.
Has been hindered by the traffic of a .316 batting average on balls in play.

Mariners at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Money line: Mariners +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Athletics -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-135) | Athletics -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Prediction

Athletics 5, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

The Mariners are continuing with a road trip that opened by taking two of three at Kansas City over the weekend. In a stretch that includes Seattle sweeping a two-game set at Oakland Aug. 23-24, the Mariners are 12-5 over their last 17 games.

Oakland returns from a six-game road trip with a five-game win streak in tow. The Athletics have bounced back from an August slump by going 12-8 over their last 20 games.

Seattle holds an 8-4 in the season series, but the A’s are a worthy home favorite with Monday’s pitching matchup. However, ATHLETICS (-190) might be a bit too chalky. PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The batter-pitcher matchups swing much to the favor of Manaea and the Athletics. Oakland owns a .764 OPS over its last 20 games. Seattle counters with a bottom-5 offense.

The A’s have been doubled up, eight games to four, but they’ve outscored the Mariners, 52-47. They are 4-2 in their last six games kicking off home stands.

The risk here is well-rewarded. BACK THE ATHLETICS -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Manaea figures as better than his surface numbers. Seattle has benefited from some elevated BABIP figures in clutch situations, and the Mariners should be considered three-quarters of the way to an Under in just about any game.

And that’s the side here: TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (-125).

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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (82-65) and Seattle Mariners (78-67) wrap up their three-game series Wednesday afternoon, with first pitch from T-Mobile Park coming at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Red Sox RHP Tanner Houck (0-4, 3.54 ERA) makes his 12th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 53 1/3 IP.

Allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in all of his appearances this season but has yet to earn a victory.
His longest outing of the season was 5 1/3 innings Aug. 29 against the Cleveland Indians.

Mariners LHP Marco Gonzales (8-5, 4.03 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 118 1/3 IP.

Gonzales had a 1.58 ERA across six starts in August and has allowed five runs through 11 innings this month.
In his last start, Sept. 10, Gonzales allowed zero earned runs across 6 innings and struck out 3 batters.

Also see: World Series odds

Red Sox at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

Money line: Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+122) | Mariners +1.5 (-150)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Prediction

Mariners 6, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

Boston is only 4-6 over its last 10 games and split the first two games of the series with Seattle. The Mariners have dropped three of their last four games, so they’re not playing particularly well, either.

With Seattle being at home and Houck unlikely to go very deep into the game, I like the MARINERS (+105) to win outright at plus money.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Mariners covered the spread in half of their last 10 games, slightly better than the Red Sox’s 4-6 ATS record in that same span. Gonzales hasn’t been dominant by any means and doesn’t strike out many batters, but Seattle should be able to get to Houck early and push into the Boston bullpen.

Bet the MARINERS +1.5 (-150) with the run of insurance in the event of a loss.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone Over in six of the Red Sox’s last nine games and in each of the Mariners’ last 10. The Over also cashed in 14 of the last 17 games between these two teams.

I like that trend to continue, so bet the OVER 8.5 (-120).

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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (81-65) continue their three-game road series against the Seattle Mariners (78-66) Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.57 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 163 2/3 IP.

Eovaldi has gone four straight starts without a decision but the Red Sox have won all four of those games.
Took a loss in Boston’s 8-2 defeat April 25 against Seattle with 5 earned runs on 8 hits over 5 innings.

Mariners LHP Tyler Anderson (6-9, 4.20 ERA) makes his ninth start for the Mariners and 27th start on the season. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 148 IP.

Seattle is 5-3 in his eight starts since being acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Received a no-decision in his last start with 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks with 4 strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings in Seattle’s 8-5 win Wednesday at the Houston Astros.

Red Sox at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:18 a.m. ET.

Money line: Red Sox -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Mariners +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+115) | Mariners +1.5 (-140)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Prediction

Mariners 6, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

The Mariners picked up a 5-4 win in the series opener and have a 3-2 lead in the season series. They have won eight of their last 12 games overall and are 42-31 at home this season. Seattle has won five of Anderson’s last six starts.

The Red Sox have lost two games in a row and six of their last eight. They are 37-36 on the road and 44-45 against winning teams.

I LEAN MARINERS (+122).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Red Sox are 74-72 ATS overall this season and 40-33 ATS on the road. However, they are only 9-19 ATS as road favorites.

Seattle’s 81-63 ATS record is the fifth-best in baseball. The Mariners have the seventh-best ATS mark at home with a 38-35 record, and as home underdogs are 32-13 ATS.

I’ll take the MARINERS +1.5 (-140) as extra insurance as I am leaning toward an outright win.

Over/Under (O/U)

Four of the five games between the two teams this season had 9 or more runs. The one that did not reach nine runs had 8 runs.

The Mariners’ last 10 games have had totals of 9 or more runs, while five of the last eight for the Red Sox have done so as well.

Take OVER 8.5 (+100).

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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (75-64) and Houston Astros (81-57) play the finale of a three-game series Wednesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mariners LHP Tyler Anderson (6-9, 4.08 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 through 143 1/3 IP.

Allowed three runs, four hits and a walk across 6 IP in a no-decision at Arizona on Friday.
Has posted a 1-1 record with a 3.38 ERA across seven starts across 40 IP since being acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in late July.

Astros RHP Jose Urquidy (6-3, 3.42 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 through 81 2/3 IP.

Yielded just two runs, five hits and a walk in 4 1/3 IP in a no-decision at San Diego Friday, his first start since returning from a right shoulder injury.
Hasn’t lost in five starts with two victories and no losses dating back to June 5.

Mariners at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mariners +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Astros -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-115) | Astros -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Prediction

Mariners 6, Astros 5

Money line (ML)

The MARINERS (+175) are worth a look as rather heavy underdogs in the series finale as they look to avoid the broom.

After getting blown out 11-2 in the opener Monday, they came up just short in 10 innings by a 5-4 count Tuesday. They have a good shot against Urquidy, who isn’t likely to go very deep into the game in just his second start since returning from a lengthy absence.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

MARINERS +1.5 (-115) are a good play if you don’t quite trust Anderson and the visitors and want a little bit of insurance. This bet would have cashed Tuesday, even though Seattle lost.

Anderson has been decent since coming over from the Bucs, while Urquidy is likely to have a pitch limit before turning it over to the bullpen.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 8.5 (-125) is the play in the finale. The Over has connected in each of the first two games with an average of 11.0 total runs per game in the first two of the series. The Over is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings between these teams, and 5-for-5 in the past five meetings at Minute Maid Park.

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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (75-63) and Houston Astros (80-57) play the second game of a three-game series Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert (5-5, 5.14 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 through 91 IP.

Posted five scoreless innings with four hits and no walks allowed last time out against Houston at T-Mobile Park Wednesday in a no-decision
Was hammered for nine runs, eight hits and a walk in just 4 2/3 IP in a loss at Houston Aug. 21.

Astros RHP Jake Odorizzi (6-7, 4.32 ERA) makes his 20th start and 21st appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 89 2/3 IP.

Yielded just one run, two hits and two walks with seven strikeouts across 5 IP in a hard-luck 1-0 loss in Seattle Wednesday.
Allowed just one run, four hits and four walks with eight strikeouts across 5 2/3 IP in a win at home against the Mariners Aug. 21.

Mariners at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mariners +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-145) | Astros -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Prediction

Astros 6, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

The ASTROS (-175) are a little on the expensive side, but play them against the Mariners (+140) and Gilbert. The latter was absolutely hammered last time he worked at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Expect more of the same.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

ASTROS -1.5 (+120) easily cashed the run line in Monday’s 11-2 series opener win. Three of the past four victories for Houston have been by two or more runs. Houston is also 6-2 in eight home games against Seattle this season, and each victory has been by two or more runs, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 8.5 (-130) is worth playing lightly. The Over has connected in each of the past four meetings between these teams at Minute Maid Park. The Over is also 5-1 in the past six road games for the M’s against a right-handed starting pitcher, and the Over is a perfect 6-0 in the past six at home for the Astros against teams with a winning overall mark.

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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (75-62) and Houston Astros (79-57) play the opener of a three-game series Monday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mariners LHP Yusei Kikuchi (7-7, 4.12 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 through 144 1/3 IP.

Twirled 7 scoreless frames with 4 hits and 2 walks allowed in a no-decision against the Astros Tuesday.
Was hammered for 7 runs on 7 hits and 3 homers in just 2 2/3 IP in a loss Aug. 20 at Houston.

Astros RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (10-4, 3.20 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 through 132 1/3 IP.

Allowed just 4 hits and 3 walks across 5 scoreless innings in a no-decision in Seattle Tuesday.
Allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits and a walk with 8 strikeouts over 6 innings in a win against the Mariners Aug. 20, also opposite Kikuchi.

Mariners at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mariners +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Astros -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-117) | Astros -1.5 (-103)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Prediction

Astros 6, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

The Astros (-220) will cost you more than two times your potential return and that’s a bit too expensive.

AVOID and look to the spread instead.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

ASTROS -1.5 (-103) are a much better play at near even money on the run line. Houston took two of three from Seattle from Aug. 20-22, and they won the first two games by a combined score of 27-4. One of those games was a 12-3 win Aug. 20 with McCullers on the hill against Kikuchi.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 8.5 (-110) is worth a small-unit play.

The Over has connected in seven of the last nine games on the road for the Mariners and 4-1 in their last five against a right-handed starting pitcher.

The Over is 5-0 for the Astros in their last five at home against a team with a winning record.

The Over has also hit in four of the last five meetings of these clubs at Minute Maid Park.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (78-54) and Seattle Mariners (71-62) meet Wednesday at 4:10 p.m. ET to put a bow on a three-game AL West series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jake Odorizzi is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. The veteran hurler is 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 over 84 2/3 IP in 18 starts and one relief appearance.

Current Mariners own an aggregate .777 OPS and .268 isolated power against Odorizzi.
The right-hander owns a 7.77 ERA over his last five road turns and a 5.13 road mark for the season.

RHP Logan Gilbert is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 over 86 IP across 18 starts.

Has been rocked for 19 ER in 12 2/3 IP over his last three starts, two of which were at home. The middle of those three games was a disaster in Houston where he allowed 9 ER on 8 H through 4 2/3 IP.
Has been sunk by a 62.9% left-on-base rate.
Posted a 3.51 ERA in the first half of the season.

Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.

Money line: Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+122) | Mariners +1.5 (-150)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Prediction

Astros 4, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

Houston and Seattle have split the first two games of the series. For the year the Astros are 9-6 (plus-24 run differential) against the Mariners.

The Mariners are 39-29 at home but with a -10 run differential in those games. Overall, the Mariners are playing .628 ball in 1-run games and are under-.500 the rest of the time. Those are indicators of a club too far over its skis.

However, the starting pitcher matchup makes for a change-up here. Gilbert has a 20.9% K-BB percentage, and his stuff and expected-ERA figures belie his surface ERA and his recent slump. Also, the Mariners have hit Odorizzi well.

PASS. Signals are still crossed, but there is some value to be had on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Seattle’s bullpen is in slightly better shape for this third game of the series. Houston is 1-4 over its last five road get-away games.

TAKE THE MARINERS +1.5 (-150).

Over/Under (O/U)

Looking at runs scored figures and support analytics call into question the validity of both offenses. Add in some contrarian-to-surface-numbers lean on Gilbert, and BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (78-53) and Seattle Mariners (70-62) meet Tuesday at 10:10 p.m. ET for the second game of a three-game AL West series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Lance McCullers, Jr., is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 10-4 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 through 127 1/3 IP over 22 starts.

Was effective in a start against Seattle two turns back allowing 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 8 K across 6 2/3 IP; has held current Mariner batters to an aggregate .668 OPS.
Owns a 2.96 ERA while holding Seattle to a .604 OPS across eight career starts at T-Mobile Park.
Has a 2.75 ERA across 10 starts on the road this season.

LHP Yusei Kikuchi is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9 over 137 1/3 IP through 24 starts.

Has experienced control problems (5.1 BB/9) while posting a 5.87 ERA over his last five starts. That stretch includes a clunker against these Astros in which he gave up 7 ER in 2 2/3 IP.
Current Houston bats have a .919 OPS and .280 isolated power against him.
Has not benefited from his pitcher-friendly home park where he owns a 5.29 ERA at T-Mobile since 2019.

Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.

Money line: Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Mariners +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+100) | Mariners +1.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

Houston took Monday’s series opener and is 5-1 over its last six games. The Astros are 8-3 with an .821 OPS over their last 11 games – a stretch that includes taking three of four games from the Mariners.

Seattle’s Monday loss marked its fourth in its last five games. The Mariners are 38-29 at home but with a -14 run differential in those games. Overall, the Mariners are playing .628 ball in 1-run games and .483 ball in every other type of contest.

The Astros are 9-5, with a plus-28 run differential, against the Mariners on the season and their .782 OPS on the road is the best in the league.

BACK THE ASTROS (-175).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Seattle’s bullpen has registered an unsupportable 3.24 ERA in August. A .275 batting average on balls in play has tamped down what could easily be an ERA more than a run higher. Meanwhile, Houston’s ‘pen has shown some genuine improvement over the last month or so. The relief corps is a difference-maker in this matchup.

TAKE THE ASTROS -1.5 (+100) and consider pairing this play with the above in a half-and-half hybrid backing of the visiting nine.

Over/Under (O/U)

Looking at runs-scored figures and support analytics call into question the validity of both offenses. Other parts of the equation are filled with signals that swing both ways. PASS.

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