Texas Longhorns Football: Missed tackle numbers are alarming

The Texas Longhorns defense has been an issue for years. Under Chris Ash hasn’t improved. Until it does, this team won’t contend.

The Texas Longhorns struggles for years have come on the defensive side of the ball. While the defense played much improved against the Oklahoma Sooners, their red zone defense is cause for concern. On the season they sit 38th in total defense. They are giving up 400.3 yards per game and have surrendered 18 touchdowns through three games essentially. Out of the 76 FBS teams that have played this year, the Longhorns rank 66th in scoring defense.

Year Total Defense Rank Scoring Defense Rank
2017 365.6 41st 21.2 29th
2018 392.8 67th 25.9 57th
2019 431.5 97th 27.5 65th
2020 400.8 38th 36.3 66th

For the Longhorns defense, they have given up 36.3 points per game and that includes limiting UTEP to just three points. If you remove that game and focus just on the conference games, Texas is giving up 47.3 points per game. That is the third worst total in FBS. The 53 points against Oklahoma could be skewed given the two teams went to four overtimes to achieve that goal. Removing overtime periods, Texas is surrendering 40 points per game which is the 10th worst total.

So how did we get here? Well head coach Tom Herman mentioned in his Monday press conference that the team needs to be better with their red zone defense. While that is commendable, they need to focus on not allowing opponents into the red zone to begin with. The defense has had issues with allowing chunk plays and it starts with tackling ball carriers at the first opportunity.

Herman’s former boss Urban Meyer stated on Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff that when you allow double-digit missed tackles, the win probability plummets. For the Longhorns this has been an issue before Herman arrived, but it hasn’t been trending in the right direction. In 2017 the first year under Herman the team had their best missed tackle numbers. That year they also surrendered the fewest points per game. In most cases they have been around league average but that can’t be something that is allowed to continuously happen.

Year Ash Longhorns Big 12 Average
2014 111 132 128.4
2015 85 130 132.9
2016 136 125 135.1
2017 117 92 121.7
2018 108 139 140.5
2019 121 157 141.8
2020 150* 60 32.6

*denotes a projected total for a 10-game schedule

The missed tackle numbers are provided by Pro Football Focus premium stats. As a whole, Chris Ash’s defenses have performed better than the Longhorns dating back to 2014 when he joined Ohio State. The first year with Todd Orlando at the helm it was better, however it has been a steady decline. This year Texas is on pace to matching the 2019 total in less games, even surpassing 2018 when the team played in 14 games with a Big 12 Championship and bowl game.

While the defense as a whole hasn’t been up to expectations, this is one area that needs to be improved immediately. If the Longhorns can limit those second and third chances by ball carriers on missed tackles, maybe then the defense can be more of an improved unit. If the goal is to be on the level of an Alabama or even Ohio State, those missed tackle numbers need to be closer to 99 or less. Thats what they accomplished in 2019 and both were playing in the College Football Playoffs.