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The UConn Huskies (33-3) battle the San Diego State Aztecs (26-10) in the Sweet 16 of the East Region Thursday. Tip from TD Garden is set for 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the San Diego State vs. UConn odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
UConn is No. 1 and San Diego State is No. 25 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
The top-seeded Huskies throttled the 16th-seeded Stetson Hatters 91-52 in the 1st round, covering as a 27.5-point favorite, and then beat 9th-seeded Northwestern Wildcats 75-58 in the 2nd round to cover as a 13-point favorite. UConn was 20-11 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season and is 4-1 ATS this postseason.
The 5th-seeded Aztecs, who lost 68-61 to the New Mexico Lobos in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, beat the 12-seed UAB Blazers 69-65 in their 1st NCAA Tournament game, failing to cover as a 6.5-point favorite. In Round 2 they beat the 13th-seeded Yale Bulldogs 85-57, covering as a 5.5-point favorite. San Diego State was 12-16-1 ATS in the regular season and is 2-3 ATS in its 5 postseason games.
San Diego State vs. UConn odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 3:49 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): San Diego State +490 (bet $100 to win $490) | UConn -710 (bet $710 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): San Diego State +10.5 (-104) | UConn -10.5 (-118)
- Over/Under (O/U): 135.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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San Diego State vs. UConn picks and predictions
Prediction
UConn 73, San Diego State 61
Moneyline
PASS.
The Huskies are the far superior side, but not worth a play at -710. For the risky, the Aztecs should be a heavy betting underdog, but they won’t have much value on the moneyline given UConn’s season-long dominance.
Against the spread
BET UCONN -10.5 (-118).
UConn has covered 7 straight games as a double-digit favorite and have dominated teams, including Stetson and Northwestern in the last 2. They are 8-1 ATS on a neutral court this season as well.
The Aztecs may have made a deep run last season in the tournament, but they don’t have the caliber roster and don’t have the same defensive acumen, allowing 68 or more in 3 of 5 postseason games. They barely edged UAB in the 1st round and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 10 games. During the regular season, 4 of San Diego State’s top 5 scoring options shot under 43% from the field.
That inefficiency coupled with UConn’s defense will be a bad mixture for the Aztecs. Take the Huskies to cover and back UCONN -10.5 (-118).
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 135.5 (-105).
If the Aztecs want to win, must not try to outrace UConn. They should play at their pace, and sitting 181st in field goal attempts per game (58.2), they play at a slow pace.
San Diego State has gone Under in 6 of its last 10 games. UConn has gone Under in 6 of its last 7 games and has allowed 60 or fewer in 4 of its 5 postseason games. It has the defensive intensity to heavily limit the Aztecs’ already-inefficient offense.
Couple it all together and back UNDER 135.5 (-105).
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