Tag: San Diego State Aztecs vs. UConn Huskies odds predictions pick betting line spread

March Madness: San Diego State vs. UConn odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego State vs. UConn odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The UConn Huskies (33-3) battle the San Diego State Aztecs (26-10) in the Sweet 16 of the East Region Thursday. Tip from TD Garden is set for 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the San Diego State vs. UConn odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

UConn is No. 1 and San Diego State is No. 25 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

The top-seeded Huskies throttled the 16th-seeded Stetson Hatters 91-52 in the 1st round, covering as a 27.5-point favorite, and then beat 9th-seeded Northwestern Wildcats 75-58 in the 2nd round to cover as a 13-point favorite. UConn was 20-11 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season and is 4-1 ATS this postseason.

The 5th-seeded Aztecs, who lost 68-61 to the New Mexico Lobos in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, beat the 12-seed UAB Blazers 69-65 in their 1st NCAA Tournament game, failing to cover as a 6.5-point favorite. In Round 2 they beat the 13th-seeded Yale Bulldogs 85-57, covering as a 5.5-point favorite. San Diego State was 12-16-1 ATS in the regular season and is 2-3 ATS in its 5 postseason games.

San Diego State vs. UConn odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 3:49 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): San Diego State +490 (bet $100 to win $490) | UConn -710 (bet $710 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): San Diego State +10.5 (-104) | UConn -10.5 (-118)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 135.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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San Diego State vs. UConn picks and predictions

Prediction

UConn 73, San Diego State 61

Moneyline

PASS.

The Huskies are the far superior side, but not worth a play at -710. For the risky, the Aztecs should be a heavy betting underdog, but they won’t have much value on the moneyline given UConn’s season-long dominance.

Against the spread

BET UCONN -10.5 (-118).

UConn has covered 7 straight games as a double-digit favorite and have dominated teams, including Stetson and Northwestern in the last 2. They are 8-1 ATS on a neutral court this season as well.

The Aztecs may have made a deep run last season in the tournament, but they don’t have the caliber roster and don’t have the same defensive acumen, allowing 68 or more in 3 of 5 postseason games. They barely edged UAB in the 1st round and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 10 games. During the regular season, 4 of San Diego State’s top 5 scoring options shot under 43% from the field.

That inefficiency coupled with UConn’s defense will be a bad mixture for the Aztecs. Take the Huskies to cover and back UCONN -10.5 (-118).

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 135.5 (-105).

If the Aztecs want to win, must not try to outrace UConn. They should play at their pace, and sitting 181st in field goal attempts per game (58.2), they play at a slow pace.

San Diego State has gone Under in 6 of its last 10 games. UConn has gone Under in 6 of its last 7 games and has allowed 60 or fewer in 4 of its 5 postseason games. It has the defensive intensity to heavily limit the Aztecs’ already-inefficient offense.

Couple it all together and back UNDER 135.5 (-105).

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March Madness: San Diego State vs. UConn odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s San Diego State vs. UConn odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The 5th-seeded San Diego State Aztecs (32-6) and No. 4 UConn Huskies (30-8) clash in Monday’s NCAA Tournament Championship Game. The battle at NRG Stadium in Houston will tip off at 9:20 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the San Diego State vs. UConn odds as we make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

San Diego State has logged final-minutes comebacks and 1-point victories in each of its last 2 games. The No. 18 team in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll has been struggling at the free-throw line (60% last 3 games, hitting 30 of 50), which has not helped the effort. But the defensive-minded Mountain West Conference-champion Aztecs have prevailed under pressure, and they head into Monday night’s championship tilt having won 9 in a row and 15 of their last 16.

UConn — ranked No. 12 in the Coaches Poll — also plays solid defense, but the Huskies sport a highly-efficient team at the offensive end as well. In this tournament, Connecticut is shooting 49.5% from the field (148 of 299) and 40.3% from 3-point range (50 of 124) on a high-volume 24.8 attempts per game. The Huskies have also logged 13-or-more offensive rebounds and had 20 assists or more in 3 of their 5 tourney games.

Check out: Best San Diego State vs. UConn prop bets and predictions

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San Diego State vs. UConn odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 9:33 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: San Diego State +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | UConn -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): San Diego State +7.5 (-110) | UConn -7.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 132.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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San Diego State vs. UConn picks and predictions

Prediction

UConn 66, San Diego State 64

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Moneyline

The Aztecs (+280) have the defense and impressive senior leadership to take this run one more step. A tag of +300 or higher would make for some acceptable leverage; otherwise. PASS.

Against the spread

UConn is reliant on 3-balls, but San Diego State owns the nation’s 3rd-best figure in defending shots from beyond the arc (28.2%, according to NCAA.com). Look for the Aztecs to hold their own with the strong rebounding Huskies and to perhaps have a key edge in turnovers.

Peg this one coming down to the final minutes with San Diego State within 5. There is value in the AZTECS +7.5 (-110).

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Over/Under

These teams play at a slightly-slower-than-average pace (and UConn has been trending slower still). The Under is 8-1 in the Aztecs last 9 games against teams playing .600 ball; it’s 9-1 in SDSU’s last 10 games overall.

With San Diego State being an elite perimeter defense and not a lot of free throws expected in this matchup, a combined score in the 120s is a distinct possibility.

Under 132.5 (-110) is a lean here but no more unless the line climbs to 133.5 or higher. PASS.

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March Madness: Sixth-round strategy for the $5K USA TODAY’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool

College basketball expert Kevin Erickson makes his final pick in the $5K NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool.

The NCAA Championship Game is set. It’s the 5th-seeded San Diego State Aztecs and 4th-seeded UConn Huskies taking center stage Monday night in Houston to play for all the marbles.

If you’re fortunate enough to still have one or both of them eligible for the USA TODAY’s NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool contest and you haven’t been eliminated, which team do you pick?

Only 24 entries remain out 8,109 entrants, but only 3 can even make a pick since 21 of those remaining already picked the Aztecs or Huskies along the way.

I would have been eliminated in the 1st round with my pick of No. 2 seed Arizona, which was knocked out by 15th-seeded Princeton. My 2nd-round picks also would have sent me packing as I selected 13th-seeded Furman, which lost to San Diego State, and 9th-seeded Auburn, which lost to a No. 1 seed in Houston.

At least I bounced back with No. 6 seeded Creighton defeating Princeton in the 3rd round, and with 5th-seeded Miami topping No. 2 seed Texas in the 4th round. Unfortunately, I would have lost in the 5th round on No. 9 seed FAU’s buzzer-beater loss to San Diego State.

SDSU is playing for its 1st national title in program history; UConn is playing for its 5th and will be making its 6th Final Four appearance.

If I were still alive in the Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool, here’s my strategy.

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National Championship pick

UCONN HUSKIES (30-8)

Who they play: San Diego State Aztecs (32-6)

When: Monday, 9:20 p.m. ET (CBS)

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston

UConn (-7.5) is a nice-sized favorite against San Diego State, per BetMGM Sportsbook. As mentioned, I picked against the Aztecs twice in this contest, using Furman in the 2nd-round in what I hoped would be a points grab (it wasn’t), and taking FAU in the 1-point semifinal loss.

The Huskies steamrolled the Miami Hurricanes in the other semifinal game, winning 72-59. It was actually a lot worse at one point as UConn led by 20 points early in the second half before Miami made it somewhat respectable.

Still, UConn has looked the part of national champion from the jump. There’s a reason the sportsbooks installed the Huskies as 7.5-point favorites.

If the Huskies win Monday, it’s thanks in large part to F Adama Sanogo. He posted 21 points (9-for-11 from the field) with 10 rebounds and 2 blocked shots in Saturday’s win over the Hurricanes. He also hit 2 of 3 behind the 3-point line. If there was anything for the critics to pick on, it’s the fact he was 1-for-4 from the free-throw line. I imagine coach Dan Hurley and Huskies fans will give Sanogo a pass.

The good news for the Huskies is that G Jordan Hawkins, who blamed calamari for food poisoning prior to Saturday’s game, was able to fight through and play against Miami. He hit just 3 of 8 from the field, but all 3 makes were from the perimeter. He ended up with 13 points, 3 boards and a blocked shot.

I expect UConn to win its 5th title Monday. The Huskies have a thing about playing and winning title games in Texas, where they’ve won 3 of their 4 championships.

They last won in 2014 under then-coach Kevin Ollie with the game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Jim Calhoun was the coach of the Huskies’ previous 3 titles. One was in 2011 in this same building, then known as Reliant Stadium. In 2004, UConn won in the Alamodome in San Antonio. Their other title came in 1999, won at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla.

The point is: Roll with UConn Monday, and don’t look back.

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For sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:

Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News

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