Tag: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The San Diego Padres (78-80) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (102-56) meet Thursday in the finale of a three-game series at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 13-10.

Season series: Dodgers lead 11-7.

RHP Vince Velasquez is on the rubber for the Padres. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.22 ERA (89 2/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 over 20 starts and four relief appearances for San Diego and the Philadelphia Phillies this season.

• Last outing: No-decision in San Diego’s 10-8 home loss to the Atlanta Braves Saturday with a stat line of 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
• vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 4.48 FIP with a .229 batting average (BA), .293 wOBA, .376 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.6 K% and 89.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 77 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Tony Gonsolin is L.A.’s projected starter. Gonsolin is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA (51 IP, 17 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 over 12 starts and two relief appearances.

• Last outing: Win, 4-2 with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 7 K Friday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
• vs. Padres on the current roster: 2.21 FIP with a .265 BA, .288 wOBA, .372 xSLG, 19.4 K% and 84.6 mph EV in 36 PA.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:16 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Padres +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Dodgers 7, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

PASS because the Dodgers (-250) are a little pricier than I’d like in this spot and there’s a “line freeze” as roughly 85% of the action is on L.A. However, the line hasn’t budged since the opener (according to Pregame.com).

Perhaps the sportsbooks feel as though their pricing for this game is dead on and are willing to take on more Dodgers bets. This is worrisome because the “House” ought to be making L.A. cheaper considering the one-way betting action.

Either way, I’ll PASS on laying more than two-to-one with the Dodgers.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET DODGERS -1.5 (-115) because the Padres have essentially folded on their season. This is a fair price for L.A.’s run line and San Diego has lost 10 of its last 11 games.

Velasquez is only getting starts for the Padres because of their mass injury issues to the pitching staff and the bullpen has been terrible this month. In September, San Diego’s bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA and home run per nine-inning rate and the eighth-worst hard-hit rate.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+105) for a small wager because this is both a “sharp” and “public” play. All the pro-Over money has steamed the total up from the 9-run opener to the current price.

The rationale is fairly obvious. Both teams are sending out starters that have below-average stuff, each lineup is stacked with power hitters and San Diego’s bullpen has been getting raked this month.

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The San Diego Padres (78-78) meet the Los Angeles Dodgers (100-56) Tuesday for the start of their three-game series at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego’s collapse out of playoff contention is complete after officially being eliminated and winning just 9 of its last 30 games. The Padres enter Tuesday on a three-game losing skid and have won just once in the last nine games.

L.A. has won seven of its last 10 games and trails the San Francisco Giants by 2 games for first place in the NL West and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Season series:  Dodgers lead 9-7.

RHP Yu Darvish makes his 30th start for the Padres. Darvish is 8-10 with a 4.21 ERA (162 1/3 IP, 76 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.

• Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 7 K in San Diego’s 7-6 home win over the Giants Thursday.
• Darvish is 2-2 against L.A. this season with a 2.42 ERA (26 IP, 7 ER), 0.73 WHIP and 5.0 K/BB in four starts.
• vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.50 FIP with a .163 batting average (BA), .249 wOBA, .306 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 33.6 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 149 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Walker Buehler is on the hill for the Dodgers. Buehler is 14-4 with a 2.58 ERA (195 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 over 31 starts.

• Last outing: No-decision in L.A.’s 10-5 loss at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday with 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 2 K.
• Buehler is 1-0 in four starts against San Diego this season with a 2.03 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 6.5 K/BB.
• vs. Padres on the current roster: 3.73 FIP with a .194 BA, .253 wOBA, .446 xSLG, 27.1 K% and 89.8 mph EV in 170 PA.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:00 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Padres +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Dodgers -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-140) | Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Dodgers 5, Padres 1

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the DODGERS (-190) for a half unit since Buehler’s effectiveness has tailed off a bit in September.

For instance, this month is Buehler’s worst by winning percentage, WHIP, K/BB and ERA. In fact, Buehler’s ERA in September is 7.32.

That said, Darvish’s struggles have coincided with San Diego’s decline and MLB’s pitching substance policy that went into effect June 21. Since then, Darvish is 2-8 with a 5.97 ERA, a .798 opponent’s OPS and has allowed 19 home runs in 15 starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the DODGERS -1.5 (+115) for a tiny wager because L.A. still has the edge in starting pitching, and the difference between each ball clubs’ bullpen this month is staggering.

In September, San Diego’s bullpen ranks 23rd in xFIP, 21st in home run per nine-inning rate and 24th in ERA. While L.A.’s bullpen has the best ERA in the majors and the eighth-best home run per nine-inning rate.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-107) because of “sharp line movement” heading south of the total, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Padres-Dodgers total down from the 8-run opener.

However, since we are arriving to the party a little late, and I don’t have a strong enough handicap on the total in this contest – I’ll stay away.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers (90-53) host the San Diego Padres (74-67) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Dodger Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-4 as NL Cy Young contender Walker Buehler gave the Dodgers a quality start and OF Mookie Betts went 2-for-3 with a home run and 4 RBIs in Saturday’s 5-4 win.

Season series: Dodgers lead 8-7.

Padres LHP Blake Snell is 7-6 with a 4.22 ERA (128 IP, 60 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 26 starts.

• Last outing: Loss, 4-0, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 11 K Tuesday against the Los Angeles Angels.
• Snell is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA (23 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB through four starts against the Dodgers this season.
• vs. Dodgers on the current roster (145 PA): 3.56 FIP with a .198 batting average (BA), .271 wOBA, .470 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 30.3 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity (EV).

Dodgers RHP Max Scherzer is 13-4 with a 2.28 ERA (154 IP, 39 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 12.3 K/9 in 26 starts for the Dodgers and Washington Nationals.

• Last outing: Win, 5-1, with 8 IP, 1 unearned run, 6 H, 0 BB and 13 K Monday at the St. Louis Cardinals.
• Scherzer is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.87 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB in three starts against San Diego.
• vs. Padres on the current roster (210 PA): 3.04 FIP with a .211 BA, .289 wOBA, .380 xSLG, 35.2 K% and 90.8 mph EV.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Dodgers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-145) | Dodgers -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U:-120)

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Prediction

Padres 4, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” with a half-unit wager on the PADRES (+145) because we are seeing some “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market and I like San Diego’s run line for some insurance.

Uggghhh, this feels square because I’m relying on Snell to keep up his perhaps unsustainable pitching performance against the defending champs and Scherzer to continue his struggles against a Padres lineup that’s significantly underperformed expectations this season.

However, this is why San Diego acquired Snell this offseason. The Padres are freefalling out of playoff positioning, their hitting is mediocre, at best, and they desperately need Snell to be a “stopper” Sunday.

His advanced numbers against the Dodgers back up his performance against them this year and he is the only reason I have to explain the RLM toward San Diego.

Nearly 90% of the cash wagered is on the Dodgers but their price has been lowered from the -195 price point. It’s always a red flag when the oddsmakers try to entice more action on the more popular side by making them cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET PADRES +1.5 (-145) for a half unit because it’s the wiser wager hence it being pretty expensive. The reason for San Diego’s run line price is the Padres are 13-5 ATS as road underdogs and L.A. is just 33-38 ATS as a home favorite.

Also, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market accompanied by some sharp line movement in San Diego’s direction. More than 60% of the cash is on the Padres’ run line while nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are with the Dodgers, according to Pregame.com.

Typically, in sports betting, it’s better to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public. The presumed sharp money has pushed San Diego’s run line from -117 on the opener to the listed price.

Over/Under (O/U)

Aside from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, the Padres can’t count on anyone at the plate and Snell has been throwing gas against the Dodgers this year. Also, Scherzer has to be champing at the bit to get right against San Diego.

That said, an overwhelming majority of the market agrees with this take and I hate following a crowd in sports betting. “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-120) for a half unit.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The San Diego Padres (74-66) clash with the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers (89-53) in the second game of their three-game set at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. shutout San Diego 3-0 Friday in the series opener as Dodgers starting LHP Julio Urias had 7 IP with 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K and 1B Max Muncy‘s 2-run homer in the 3rd-inning was enough for the win.

Season series: Tied 7-7.

RHP Chris Paddack takes the hill for the Padres. Paddack is 7-6 with a 4.95 ERA (103 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 21 starts and one relief appearance.

• Last outing: No-decision in San Diego’s 4-3 home victory over the Houston Astros Sunday with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 0 K.
• Road splits: 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.99 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 in 11 starts.
• vs. Dodgers on the current roster (69 PA): 6.48 FIP with a .344 batting average (BA), .446 wOBA, .559 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.4 K% and 92.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.’s projected starter. Buehler is 13-3 with a 2.31 ERA (179 IP, 46 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 28 starts.

• Last outing: Loss, 6-4, with 3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 1 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
• Buehler has three no-decisions this year against San Diego with a 1.83 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.81 WHIP and 10.5 K/BB in three starts.
• vs. Padres on the current roster (150 PA): 3.67 FIP with a .180 BA, .238 wOBA, .443 xSLG, 28.0 K% and 88.8 mph EV.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Padres +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Dodgers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-120) | Dodgers -1.5 (+100)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U:-105)

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Prediction

Dodgers 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

PASS because the Dodgers (-230) exceeds my buy price of -180 for L.A. in this spot and we’re seeing slight “reverse line movement” in the betting market thus far.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the action is on L.A. money line but the Dodgers have gotten cheaper by 10 cents on the dollar since the opener. It’s suspicious whenever a sportsbook makes the far more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the DODGERS -1.5 (+100) for a half unit because Paddack is a fringe rotation guy for the Padres and has scary pitching peripherals against L.A.’s lineup. While Buehler has pitched well vs. San Diego despite not picking up a win yet and has the best odds to win the NL Cy Young.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE UNDER 7.5 (-105) for 1 unit because both lineups have struggled recently and the Under is 3-0-1 in the last four Padres-Dodgers meetings.

Both San Diego’s and L.A.’s lineup has been below-average in wRC+, wOBA and WAR over the last two weeks, with the Dodgers being ranked worse surprisingly. Also, each bullpen has been a top-tier unit this year.

I’m expecting a playoff-like atmosphere as these teams are currently the two NL Wild Card seeds with L.A. being just 2.5 games back of first in the NL West and San Diego trying to fend off the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth. Typically, MLB playoff games are tighter and lower scoring.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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