The San Antonio Spurs (12-10) travel in-state Saturday to play the Houston Rockets (11-10) at Toyota Center. The tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Spurs-Rockets NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
San Antonio just finished a seven-game homestand on a winning note by taking down the Minnesota Timberwolves 111-108 Wednesday. The Spurs failed to cover the spread as 7.5-point favorites. During their homestand, the Spurs were 4-3 straight up but 3-4 against the spread and had nice upsets over the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics.
The Rockets wrapped up a four-game road trip with a 115-103 upset at the Memphis Grizzlies Thursday. Houston has been on a roll lately, winning seven of its last eight games (6-2 ATS) behind the second-best net rating and by far the best defensive efficiency over that stretch.
Each team won and covered in the two earlier meetings this season, which were both in San Antonio.
Spurs at Rockets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Spurs -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Rockets -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Spurs -1.5 (-105) | Rockets +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 224.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Spurs at Rockets: Key injuries
Spurs
- PG Dejounte Murray (ankle) questionable
- PF LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) out
- SG Lonnie Walker IV (illness) out
Rockets
- PG John Wall (back) questionable
- SF David Nwaba (ankle) questionable
- C Christian Wood (ankle) out
- PG Dante Exum (calf) out
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Spurs at Rockets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Spurs 113, Rockets 105
Money line (ML)
Spurs All-Star SG DeMar DeRozan dismantled the Timberwolves the other night. Aldridge not being there and two banged-up ballhandlers could mean crazy usage for DeRozan again. Granted, DeRozan didn’t play well against the Rockets earlier this season but that just help his motivation.
If the season ended today and Wood didn’t win the NBA Most Improved Player award it would be a crime. Wood is 13th in PER, 19th in rebounding percentage, 10th in effective field goal percentage, fifth in defensive rating and 19th in win shares per 48 minutes.
He’s the best player on a Houston team that has the second-best net rating in the Association over its last eight games and he abused the Spurs previously this season. Wood scored 25.5 points, grabbed 16.5 rebounds and had a 98 defensive rating in the first two Spurs-Rockets games,
His absence Saturday is too much for Houston to overcome. And while San Antonio has a couple of injury concerns, including a missing big, I’d argue no Aldridge may be addition by subtraction. DeRozan should wreak havoc in the mid-range with C DeMarcus Cousins taking Wood’s spot.
BET SPURS (-115) for 1 unit.
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS and stick with the money line.
Over/Under (O/U)
This is more of a lean even though my predicted score is 6.5 points below the total but, I’ll TAKE UNDER 224.5 (-110) for a half-unit. I have a hunch we see a sloppy game offensively between the two teams.
The market seems to be backing the Over and I’d guess that’s mostly because Wood is being replaced by a lesser defender in Cousins. While Cousins can get buckets, he takes bad shots and Wood’s absence hurts Houston’s offensive efficiency more than its defensive.
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Also see:
- Rockets star Christian Wood sidelined indefinitely with right ankle sprain (Rockets Wire)
- Hoops Hype rumors: Spurs | Rockets
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