Tag: Sam Darnold contract

Fifth-year option projections for every first-round player in the 2018 draft class

NFL teams must decide by May 3 which of their first-rounders from 2018 will get fifth-year options. Here’s how we think that should go.

After free agency, and just after the NFL draft closes up shop on May 1, there’s one more way teams can solidify their rosters: The decision to exercise the fifth-year option on first-round draft picks from four years before. The decisions have to be made before May 3, and if the team declines the option on the player, that player becomes a free agent a year earlier, unless a longer-term deal happens.

At this time, none of the first-rounders in the 2018 class have signed second contracts; that’s more likely to happen in the 2022 league year. Teams have those players on relatively cheap deals based on slotted contracts; even 2018 first-overall pick Baker Mayfield will make just $920,000 in base salary, and a $4,936,770 roster bonus. His prorated bonus of $5,462,360 will also count against the 2021 cap, so Mayfield represents a 2021 cap hit of $10,569,130. His fifth-year option as a player who’s reached the playtime minimum but hasn’t made a Pro Bowl is $18,858 million, and at that point, it might make more sense from a salary cap perspective to lock him up on that second contract.

Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network has the full fifth-year numbers.

Lamar Jackson is a very interesting case study regarding the fiscal prudence of the fifth-year extension versus a new contract. As a one-time Pro Bowler, Jackson’s fifth-year option number is $23,106 million, a massive upgrade from his 2021 base salary of $1,771,590, and his cap number of $3,013,708. While every quarterback’s future deals will be affected by Patrick Mahomes’ massive 10-year, $450 million deal, Mahomes’ cap hits don’t start to get ridiculous until 2022, when his base salary kicks up from $990,000 to $29,450 million, and 2023, when he starts getting annual roster bonuses the approximate size of the gross national product of France. The Ravens and Jackson could come to terms on a similar deal and save in the short term.

The Bills and Josh Allen are in exactly the same boat, by the way. Allen’s fifth-year option would cost the Bills that same $23,106 million, while his 2021 cap hit is just $6,910,056, based on his status as the seventh overall pick.

So, if you see a lot of action around Jackson and Allen as the 2021 season comes to a close, that’s why.

Here’s the best explainer of the different fifth-year option tiers, from our friends at OverTheCap.com:

Basic: Players who do not meet any of the requirements below will be eligible for a fifth year base salary calculated from the average of the 3rd to 25th highest salaries at their position over the past five seasons.Here’s the best explainer of the different tiers, per our friends at OverTheCap.com:

  • Playtime: These players will be eligible for a fifth year base salary calculated from the average of the 3rd to 20th highest salaries at their position over the past five seasons, provided that their snap counts over their first three seasons meet one of the following three criteria:
    • 75% or greater in two of their first three seasons
    • an average of 75% or greater over all three seasons
    • 50% or greater over all three seasons
  • One Pro Bowl: Players who are named to exactly one Pro Bowl on the original ballot (not as an alternate) will be eligible for a fifth year base salary equal to the transition tender at their position.
  • Multiple Pro Bowls: Players who are named to two or three Pro Bowls on the original ballot (not as an alternate) will be eligible for a fifth year base salary equal to the franchise tender at their position.

In 2020, 13 of the top 32 selections from the 2017 draft class saw their fifth-year options declined, including four of the top five picks: Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, 49ers defensive lineman Solomon Thomas, Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette, and Titans receiver Corey Davis.

In 2019, the retention rate for the 2016 first-round class was much better at the top — the first nine picks saw fifth-year options, through there were still 12 team refusals overall.

In 2018, the 2015 class also saw 12 players who didn’t receive first-year options, but only three of the top 10 picks: Jaguars edge-rusher Dante Fowler Jr., Bears receiver Kevin White, and Giants offensive lineman Ereck Flowers.

The odds are good that as much of 40% of the 2017 class will not see fifth-year options. Here’s how we see the process going in 2021. In this instance, we have 13 players without fifth-year options, including two of the top three picks.