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The No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels (29-5) and No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (26-8) will tangle in South Region second-round action Sunday in Cleveland. The opening tip at Rocket Arena will be at 4:10 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
On Friday, Saint Mary’s earned its 19th victory in its last 21 games with a first-round win over Vanderbilt. The favored-by-4.5 Gaels beat the Commodores 59-56 in a contest that saw both sides shoot just 40% from the floor. SMC trailed for most of the middle 20 minutes of the game and by as many as 12 points, but the Gaels survived and advanced with a flourish at the end.
Alabama advanced Friday with a 90-81 triumph over Robert Morris. The favored-by-21.5 Crimson Tide struggled from distance but went 28 of 37 (75.7%) on 2-point looks. UA — tabbed No. 8 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll — was a national semifinalist last year and is now 7-2 over its last 9 NCAA Tournament games.
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Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 5:02 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Saint Mary’s +190 (bet $100 to win $+190) | Alabama -235 (bet $235 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Saint Mary’s +5.5 (-110) | Alabama -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 148.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 79, Saint Mary’s 74
Moneyline
AVOID: Look to leverage a slight Saint Mary’s lean with the points.
Against the spread
SMC is 6-1 ATS over its last 7 games when tabbed as a 1-5-point underdog.
Alabama’s defense has slipped over recent weeks, and the way the Gaels can rebound and defend the perimeter makes them a decent enough play with the points in this spot. Saint Mary’s is also adept in keeping foes off the free-throw line. That’s a big part of the UA attack.
Consider a partial-unit play on the GAELS +5.5 (-110).
Over/Under
The Over cashed in UA’s Friday game and is 4-1 in the Tide’s last 5 games.
This contest presents an extreme style clash, with the Gaels playing at a methodical pace and having a KenPom adjusted tempo ranked 360th in NCAA Division I, while the Tide play at breakneck speed and own the KenPom No. 1 tempo.
Both defenses are excellent at forcing suboptimal looks, but expect both teams to crash the offensive glass and get extra chances. Look for SMC to find plenty of success generating near-proximity shots, and for the Tide to continue running plenty of under-10-second possessions.
Saint Mary’s has a few league (West Coast Conference) foes that play quite fast, and the Gaels’ trend against those squads (Gonzaga, San Diego, Washington State) has been decidedly Over.
Look for this contest to roll past 150. BACK THE OVER 148.5 (-110).
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