Tag: Sagarin ratings

Notre Dame ranked what in Sagarin Ratings

The latest Sagarin ratings are out for college football and Notre Dame lands in a confusing spot.

Remember back in the day when the BCS was decided by computer ratings and that’s how we decided who would play for the national championship each year?

At least in part that’s how things were done.

One of the most-known of those “Computer Rankings” was the Jeff Sagarin Ratings and all these years later, Sagarin is still pumping out his rankings.

The latest that is out after the fourth week of college football games is interesting to put gently.

Where Notre Dame ranks is perhaps dumb-founding.

Sagarin’s system has Notre Dame ranked 22nd in the nation with their 2-0 mark.

A few of the teams you’ll find listed ahead of them are:

  • No. 19 Kansas State despite the Wildcats losing at home to Arkansas State
  • No. 14 LSU who just opened their season with a loss on their home field to Mississippi State
  • No. 13 Clemson who is for some reason ranked 12 spots lower than the major polls have them, despite dominating in their two wins.
  • No. 10 Michigan who is yet to play a game with the same going for No. 18 Washington, No. 9 Oregon, No. 8 Wisconsin, No. 5 Penn State and No. 1 Ohio State

I get strength of schedule mattering and the strength of your opponents schedule also counting for something.  Perhaps it’s just a small sample size throwing things off a bit but for the life of me I don’t get how a computer program can rank teams that have played games the same way they can rank or judge teams who are yet to play.

Ohio State finishes season at No. 1 in ESPN’s FPI and SP+ rankings

The Ohio State Buckeyes were the best team over the course of the 2019-20 college football season according to ESPN’s SP+ power ratings

The Ohio State Buckeyes were the best team over the course of the 2019-20 college football season, according to ESPN’s SP+ power ratings.

Before fans of Ohio State or LSU overreact to this, let’s break down exactly what it means.

SP+ doesn’t try to crown a national champion. It doesn’t react to who wins games. Instead, it judges teams on a play-by-play and possession-by-possession metric. In other words, it looks at the factors behind who won a football game to see how each team performed in the stats that are easiest to replicate. Using that, it looks forward to predict who will likely win games in the future.

This shouldn’t be too surprising. LSU had multiple close calls over the course of the season (Texas, Auburn) and was statistically weak on defense at times during the season. That’s why ESPN’s FPI rankings also put Ohio State as the best team over the course of the 2019 season.

What LSU did better than everyone else, by far, was peak at the right time. We can see this most clearly in the Sagarin ratings, another power rating that operates on similar principles.

Over the course of the season, Ohio State has the best power rating in the country. In the Predictor rating, Ohio State is a full five points clear of No. 2 LSU. However, if you look at the “Recent” rating in the right-hand column, you will see that LSU’s rating is an insanely high 109.57 with recent games being weighted more heavily. Any rating over 100 is rare to begin with, though becoming a bit more common. 109 is off the charts.

In a great snapshot, the Sagarin ratings show a very clear picture of why LSU won the National Championship this year. Ohio State was the best and most consistent team over the course of the year. LSU was a pretty good team over the course of the year. However, in its last few games, LSU was one of the best teams that college football has ever seen–and that’s why the Tigers are National Champions.

Notre Dame, Frank Leahy Load Up All-Time Sagarin Ratings

Jeff Sagarin’s all-time ratings were released by USA Today on Thursday and to the surprise of nobody, Notre Dame was all over the list making up more than 10% of the 150 spots.

With it being college football’s 150th season there have been lists in regards to everything in college football deciding the best this, that or the other all season long.

Who is the best team in any given year in the history of the game?

We finally have an answer.

At least according to a computer.

Jeff Sagarin’s all-time ratings were released by USA Today on Thursday and to the surprise of nobody, Notre Dame was all over the list making up more than 10% of the 150 spots.

You may notice as well that Frank Leahy’s squad have a few appearances on the list. Here’s where Notre Dame’s teams each checked in:

No. 2 – 1943 Notre Dame

No. 15 – 1946 Notre Dame

No. 17 – 1949 Notre Dame

No. 29 – 1966 Notre Dame

No. 40 – 1977 Notre Dame

No. 44 – 1970 Notre Dame

No. 46 – 1973 Notre Dame

No. 53 – 1947 Notre Dame

No. 56 – 1988 Notre Dame

No. 63 – 1930 Notre Dame

No. 71 – 1953 Notre Dame

No. 105 – 1921 Notre Dame

No. 117 – 1989 Notre Dame

No. 122 – 1993 Notre Dame

No. 135 – 1924 Notre Dame

No. 144 – 1948 Notre Dame

There are a few things to take away but to me none greater than six of the 11 teams Frank Leahy coached at Notre Dame being considered among the 150 greatest in the history of the sport.

The formula used to find the greatest teams included win-loss record, strength of schedule and margin of victory.

The No. 1 team historically graded out to be 1945 Army who went 9-0 with seven wins over top-30 squads and four against top-ten teams.

Also worth noting is that 1993 Florida State finished 12-1 with their lone loss coming to Notre Dame while the Irish finished 12-1 as well, with their loss coming to Boston College. However Notre Dame finished ranked 108 spots lower than Florida State in this poll.

Check out the full rankings right here and if you’re up for it, discuss them in the Fighting Irish Wire forum.

Ohio State keeps rising in advanced metrics, even without Chase Young

The Ohio State Buckeyes improved their overall ratings in multiple advanced metrics, even with Chase Young sitting out.

The Ohio State Buckeyes were without Chase Young this past week, but that didn’t stop them from dominating Maryland. Then again, no one expected the Buckeyes to do anything other than dominate the Terps. Even without Young, Ohio State was still favored by over 40 points–a spread the Buckeyes easily covered.

What is impressive, though, is that Ohio State managed to improve its score in advanced metrics in the process. These metrics, whether they operate on a possession-by-possession or play-by-play basis, expect teams like Ohio State to blow out teams like Maryland. Without a star defensive player, you might expect that Ohio State’s numbers would slip a bit. But that didn’t happen. Not only did the Buckeyes not slip, they rose even further.

In Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, the Buckeyes stayed pretty static on both offense and defense. The defensive rating barely moved, from giving up an expected 9.0 points per game against an average team to giving up 9.1. Ohio State’s overall rating skyrocketed to an unheard-of 36.9, though, on the back of special teams ratings becoming more valuable this week. (There are fewer special teams plays in a game so it takes longer in the season for them to reach their full value.)

In ESPN’s FPI ratings, the Buckeyes rose to an incredible 34.7 points better than an average team. The rating last week was 33.8. Without Chase Young, Ohio State still managed to make its overall score a point better in one week. What could have happened if Young was on the field?

And, lastly, the Buckeyes improved their Sagarin rating as well. The Predictor, Golden Mean, and Recent ratings all rose about one point (Recent was the lowest, at .81) with the domination of Maryland.

Chase Young is an incredible player, and perhaps he might be needed against an elite offensive line in the CFP. But against everyone else, Ohio State’s other linemen are still better than whoever is trying to block them. That means that the Buckeyes can improve their overall efficiencies, even without their top player on the field.