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The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles clash Tuesday in Charm City as they swing into the postseason. First pitch in the opener of their best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Orioles won 4 of 6 games
Kansas City (86-76) overcame a pair of late-season losing streaks to earn the No. 2 AL Wild Card slot. The Royals sport an average offense but a top-notch pitching-and-defense combo. Kansas City’s 3.98 runs per game allowed ranks 6th in MLB.
Baltimore (91-71) was under-.500 (34-38) over its last 72 games, but did finish September on a strong note. The Orioles swept the Minnesota Twins over the weekend and went 5-1 over their last 6 games. Baltimore is the No. 1 AL Wild Card.
Royals at Orioles projected starters
LHP Cole Ragans vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Ragans made 32 starts this season, going 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 186 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 1-0 win at Washington Nationals last Tuesday
- Career vs. Orioles: 0-2, 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 6 BB, 14 K in 4 games (2 starts)
- Notched a 1.08 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .515 OPS in 25 September innings
- Making his 1st career postseason appearance
Burnes made 32 starts, going 15-9, with a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 194 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 10-1 loss at New York Yankees Thursday
- Career vs. Royals: 3-0, 2.15 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 21 H, 6 BB, 32 K in 5 starts
- Owns a 1.29 ERA on the strength of a .550 OPS allowed since Aug. 28
- Has registered a 2.84 ERA across 19 career postseason innings
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Royals at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Monday at 9:18 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Royals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Orioles -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Royals at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 5, Royals 3
Moneyline
PASS: look to the run line for a best-value opportunity.
Run line/Against the spread
The Orioles are 8-2 over their last 10 games while Kansas City is just 4-9 with a .531 OPS over its last 13 games. And the Royals are 1-3 over their last 4 series openers.
Ragans has benefitted from some low batting-average-on-balls-in-play figures of late. Per ESPN, current Baltimore bats own an aggregate .837 OPS against him.
Burnes has a postseason pedigree. Per ESPN, current K.C. bats own an aggregate .595 OPS against him.
Baltimore righting the ship late should give the Orioles a shot of confidence in this October opener.
BACK THE ORIOLES -1.5 (+155).
Over/Under
The Over is 4-2-1 across the last 7 series meetings. The last 5 Baltimore games have seen the Over cash 4 times (4-1).
The pitching matchup here certainly has the potential to make the rested-bullpen opener a pitchers’ duel. But recency bias has the bats not getting quite enough attention (or more likely has the pitchers getting just too much sway).
Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 7 (+100).
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