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The Kansas City Royals look to advance and eliminate the Baltimore Orioles in Game 2 of their best-of-3 Wild Card Series Wednesday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoff series: Royals lead 1-0; Regular-season series: Orioles won 4-2
Kansas City took Tuesday’s opener 1-0 as +125 road underdogs with the Under (7) easily cashing. Royals SP Cole Ragans was brilliant, striking out 8 over 6 shutout innings. MLB batting champ SS Bobby Witt Jr. brought home the game’s lone run in the 6th inning with a 2-out, RBI single. RP Lucas Erceg closed the door on the Orioles, striking out 2 of the game’s final 3 batters after allowing a leadoff walk in the bottom of the 9th.
The Orioles are on the brink of getting eliminated for the 2nd consecutive year in their 1st-round matchup. The bats fell silent Tuesday, mustering only 5 hits and stranding 3 runners in scoring position — Baltimore finished 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. SP Corbin Burnes was the hard luck loser, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits and a walk over 8 innings with 3 strikeouts.
Royals at Orioles projected starters
RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA) made 33 starts in 2024 with a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 206 2/3 innings. With a playoff spot clinched, the 9-year veteran only worked 2 innings as a tuneup for Wednesday’s start.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss at Atlanta Braves Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 9-3, 2.62 ERA (99 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 16 starts
- Career vs. Orioles: 0-1, 3.86 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K in 3 games, including 1 start
- 2024 vs. Orioles (1 start): Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K in 5-0 home defeat April 21
- Career postseason: 0-0, 1 save, 0.00 ERA (2 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 3 relief outings for Mets in 2022
Eflin (10-9, 3.59 ERA) made 28 starts between the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays this season. He posted a 1.15 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 165 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 1 K in 9-7 victory at New York Yankees Sept. 25
- 2024 vs. Royals (1 start): Win, 5 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 10-8 road victory as member of Rays July 4
- Career vs. Royals: 3-1, 5.09 ERA (23 IP, 13 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 17 K in 4 starts
- Career postseason stats: 0-1, 5.17 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 22 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 15 K in 11 games (1 start) for Phillies in 2022 and Rays in 2023
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Royals at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 2:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Orioles -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-165) | Orioles -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Royals at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 3, Orioles 2
Moneyline
BET ROYALS (+130).
The young Orioles are still searching for that elusive postseason breakthrough. After winning 101 games last year, they were swept in a best-of-5 ALDS by the Texas Rangers, and the playoff pressure seems to be getting to them again. They needed to make a statement in Game 1 vs. the Royals, especially at home with their ace Burnes on the mound, but they couldn’t get it done. It’s starting to feel like the moment is still too big for this young Orioles squad.
On the other hand, the Royals are rolling out their best starter in Lugo for Game 2. Lugo has been impressive, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. He’s the kind of reliable arm you want in a game like this. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s Eflin hasn’t looked good against the Royals, giving up 5 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts against them.
With the Royals coming in as underdogs and considering the recent form of both teams, TAKING KANSAS CITY (+130) on the moneyline feels like the right move. The Orioles (-155) still need to prove they can handle the postseason spotlight.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’ll keep my bet to the Royals on moneyline getting those plus odds.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).
Playoff baseball is a different beast — players are more cautious, the intensity is higher and runs are often harder to come by. That’s why it’s wise to lean toward the Under in these kinds of games.
The recent trends are also in our favor. The Under has hit in the last 2 meetings between these teams and is 3-2-1 in the last 6.
The Royals have been in a low-scoring groove, with the Under hitting in 7 of their last 8 games. Lugo has been a big part of that trend, with the Under cashing in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Orioles are also coming off 2 straight Under games.
With both sides likely to lean on strong pitching and playoff nerves in play, UNDER 7.5 (-110) is the smart choice here.
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