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The Kansas City Royals (84-74) and Washington Nationals (69-89) conclude a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Nationals Park is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals 2-0
After dropping 7 in a row, the Royals are a victory away from completing a sweep of the Nationals. Kansas City pitching held Washington scoreless through the first 2 games, winning 1-0 in 10 innings Tuesday as a -196 favorite and 3-0 Wednesday as a -126 fave.
The Royals’ magic number is 3. They are tied with the Detroit Tigers (84-74) for the final 2 Wild Card spots and lead the Minnesota Twins (82-76) by 2 games and the Seattle Mariners (82-77) by 2½ games.
Washington has not been able to get the bats going against the Kansas City Royals, only amassing 7 total hits over these 2 games, including just 2 in Wednesday’s loss. The Nationals have dropped 8 of their last 9 games. They have long been eliminated from playoff contention.
Royals at Nationals projected starters
RHP Michael Wacha vs. LHP Patrick Corbin
Wacha (13-8, 3.28 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 161 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2-1 home loss vs. San Francisco Giants Friday
- 2024 road splits: 6-5, 3.68 ERA (80 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 14 starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 4-2, 2.74 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 7 games (6 starts)
Corbin (6-13, 5.58 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 169 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 7-6 loss at Chicago Cubs Sept. 19
- 2024 home splits: 4-5, 4.41 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 15 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 1-0, 3.38 ERA (16 IP, 6 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Last start vs. Royals: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 12-10 road win May 26, 2023
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Royals at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Royals -1.5 (-105) | Nationals +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Royals at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 5, Nationals 2
Moneyline
PASS.
The Royals (-175) cannot afford to lose this game which is why I’m predicting a Kansas City win, but I’ll take my wager to the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET ROYALS -1.5 (-105).
Kansas City really needs this victory. Washington’s starting pitcher Corbin has been a bit of a gamble in the past — and is definitely not the pitcher you want to bet on. While he’s shown some improvement lately, going 4-1 over his last six starts, he still has a reputation for struggling at times.
On the flip side, the Royals are in a good spot right now. Wacha has been solid, posing a 1.99 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 5 ER) in his last 4 starts but only going 2-2.
With Tuesday’s win, Kansas City reached .500 (21-21) in interleague play; Washington fell to 21-24. The Royals are 39-38 on the road, while the Nationals are 36-41 at home.
Considering all these factors, BACKING ROYALS -1.5 (-105) looks like a smart move.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-120).
The Under has been easy cashes in the first 2 games of this series and is 6-1 in the last 7 head-to-head meetings dating back to 2019.
The Royals have been leaning heavily toward the Under as well, with it hitting in 8 of their last 10 games. They own the 4th best Under record in the majors this season at 85-68-5, according to Teamrankings.com.
The Nationals are also an Under team, cashing below the total in the each of the last 5 games. They rank 8th in Unders at 78-72-8.
With both teams struggling to score lately, BETTING UNDER 8.5 (-120) is the way to go.
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