Tag: Royals Mariners odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals (25-17) and Seattle Mariners (22-19) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Seattle won 6-1 last season

Kansas City beat the Los Angeles Angels 4-2, covering as a +101 road underdog Sunday. The Royals never trailed as they scored all 4 of their runs in the 4th inning for a 4-0 lead. RHP Seth Lugo picked up the win, pitching 8 innings of 1-run ball on 5 hits and no walks while striking out 12. Kansas City took 3 of 4 in the series, only dropping the Saturday contest.

Seattle routed the Oakland Athletics 8-4 Sunday, covering as a -203 home favorite in the rubber match of a 3-game set. The Mariners jumped out to a 5-0 lead after the 2nd. From there, keeping the lead was easy behind RHP Luis Castillo, who pitched 6 innings and allowed 2 earned runs on 7 hits and 0 walks with 8 K’s. It was a nice bounceback victory after losing Saturday 8-1.

Royals at Mariners projected starters

RHP Brady Singer vs. RHP George Kirby

Singer (3-1, 2.36 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 45 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-4 home win vs. Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday
  • Career vs. Mariners: 1-1, 2.88 ERA (25 IP, 8 ER), 19 H, 7 BB, 28 K across 4 starts and 1 relief appearance

Kirby (3-3, 4.15 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 43 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 6-3 road loss at Minnesota Twins Wednesday
  • Career vs. Royals: 0-0, 6.00 ERA (6 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 1 start last season

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Royals at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Royals +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Mariners -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-178) | Mariners -1.5 (+146)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -106 | U: -114)

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Royals at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 6, Royals 5

Moneyline

LEAN SEATTLE (-146). 

Seattle has won 2 of its last 3 games and is 13-9 at home this season. The Mariners have also won 6 consecutive games against Kansas City and are 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups dating back to 2022.

This is only a lean because the Mariners are 2-2 in their last 4 home games, while the Royals are 3-1 in their last 4 road games.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. 

I fully expect the Royals to cover here as +1.5 (-178) underdogs, but the line is set too heavily to risk betting on. Back the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7 (-106). 

The Over has hit in 6 consecutive games for Seattle and is 3-0-1 in its last 4 home games. For Kansas City, the Over is 4-2 in its last 6 games. The Over has also hit in 8 of the last 10 Kansas City-Seattle matchups.

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Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Kansas City Royals (57-70) drop by the T-Mobile Park Friday for the second game of a four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (69-59) at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Royals vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

K.C. won the series opener Friday 6-4 thanks to a 6th-inning grand slam by C Salvador Perez to key the victory.

Season series: Royals lead 1-0.

LHP Kris Bubic is the projected starter for the Royals. Bubic is 4-6 with a 4.94 ERA (93 IP, 51 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 across 14 starts and eight relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-2, with a 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 9 K Saturday at the Chicago Cubs.
  • 2021 road splits: 2-5 with a 5.64 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.41 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB in seven starts and four bullpen outings.

RHP Logan Gilbert makes his 18th start for the Mariners. Gilbert is 5-5 with a 5.16 ERA (82 IP, 47 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9.

  • Last outing: Loss, 15-1, with 4 2/3 IP, 9 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K Saturday at the Houston Astros.
  • Gilbert grades in the 13th percentile for hard-hit rate, 15th percentile for exit velocity (EV), 40th percentile in expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and 58th percentile in expected wOBA (xwOBA).

Royals at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:02 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Royals +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mariners -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-150) | Mariners -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Mariners 5, Royals 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the MARINERS (-190) only because I’d prefer to parlay Seattle’s money line with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.

Seattle is 27-22 overall vs. lefty starters while K.C. is 36-52 against right-handed starters and the Mariners have an edge in all three phases of the game (starting and bullpen pitching and hitting).

Kansas City’s lineup ranks 26th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching with the 21st-worst hard-hit rate.

Also, Bubic grades in the 34th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, xSLG, EV, K% and BB%. On top of that, K.C.’s bullpen ranks 23rd in K-BB%, 24th in both xFIP and SIERA.

Both the pros and Joes are backing the Mariners in this spot which has caused oddsmakers to move Seattle’s money line up from the -160 opener to the current number according to Pregame.com.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because K.C. is 31-25 ATS as a road underdog while Seattle is 6-16 ATS as a home favorite. On top of that, the Mariners are just 2-5 ATS as home favorites against left-handed starters with a minus-29.8% return on investment.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” against the market that’s backing the Over at more than an 80% clip according to Pregame.com.

This is what’s known as a “line freeze“, which is a red flag. The oddsmakers haven’t moved the total down from the opener despite the one-sided action so they might be trying to entice more bets on the Over.

The Mariners are 6-15-1 O/U as home favorites, the Royals are 23-27-6 O/U as road underdogs and Seattle’s lineup is 26th in wRC+ and 28th in wOBA vs. left-handed pitching.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Kansas City Royals (56-70) open a four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (69-58) Thursday. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Royals vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Royals RHP Brad Keller (8-12, 5.43 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.65 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 129 1/3 IP.

  • Has a 3.93 ERA, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 over 34 1/3 IP across six starts in the second half.
  • Sports an xFIP and FIP nearly a full run lower than his surface ERA and has been hurt by a .348 BABIP – the highest in the league amongst qualified starters.

Mariners LHP Yusei Kikuchi (7-7, 4.22 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 132 1/3 IP.

  • Gave up 7 ER on 7 H and 3 BB with 2 K over 2 2/3 IP Aug. 20 at the Houston Astros.
  • Has given up 7 ER twice while logging a 6.35 ERA across seven second-half starts; he has just two quality starts in that span.

Royals at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Royals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mariners -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-155) | Mariners -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Mariners 5,  Royals 3

Money line (ML)

These two clubs probably aren’t as far apart as their records suggest and it’s difficult to find a very strong reason to take one over the other.

Both pitchers have faced their share of struggles throughout the season, neither team’s offensive platoon splits are particularly favorable and both bullpens have performed similarly over the second half of the season and in August.

The Mariners are one of only four teams in the league to have a .500 or better record and a negative run differential. They have the worst run differential and the best record of those four teams. Seattle is probably the play, but I’m not looking to lay 80 cents on the dollar to back it.

PASS on the money line and seek value elsewhere.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

There may be value to back the Mariners on the run line despite concerns about the game in general.

Seattle has the second-best cover percentage in the league and the fifth-best percentage at home. The Mariners are rested after a day off Wednesday while the Royals are entering their seventh game of a 10-game road trip.

Seattle won by 2 or more runs 10 times in its 13 August victories. The confidence isn’t super high but consider a value-based partial-unit play on the MARINERS -1.5 (+122).

Over/Under (O/U)

Though neither team is particularly electric with the bats, both pitching staffs are capable of giving up crooked numbers with shaky starts and very average bullpen arms.

This number feels just too low and we’re seeing it slightly higher around the industry so hit the OVER 7.5 (-130) while you can.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @unansweredpoint on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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