Tag: Reds Guardians odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Cincinnati Reds (81-77) and Cleveland Guardians (74-84) meet Wednesday to conclude a 2-game series. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 2-1

SS Elly De La Cruz’s 1st career 2-homer game helped propel the Reds to an 11-7 victory over the Guardians as +109 road underdogs on Tuesday. The Reds are 1 1/2 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the final Wild Card berth.

With the loss, Cleveland fell into 3rd place in the AL Central, 1/2 game behind the Detroit Tigers. The Minnesota Twins have already clinched the division title.

Reds at Guardians projected starters

LHP Andrew Abbott vs. RHP Shane Bieber

Abbott (8-5, 3.70 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10 K/9 in 107 innings.

• Last outing: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in a 7-5 home loss Friday vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates
• Career vs. Cleveland: 1-0, 3.60 ERA (5 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 1 start

Bieber (5-6, 3.91 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 122 innings.

• Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 9-8 home win Friday vs. the Baltimore Orioles
• Career vs. Cincinnati: 3-0, 3.51 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 24 H, 9 BB, 39 K in 5 starts

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Reds at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:08  p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Reds +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Guardians -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-200) | Guardians -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Reds at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 3, Guardians 1

Moneyline

BET REDS (+110).

The Reds are the better team and have much more to play for and they are also  the hotter team, having won 2 straight while the Guardians have lost 3 in a row. Cincinnati is also better on the road (43-34) than Cleveland is at home (41-39).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I feel confident in picking the Reds to cover here but at +1.5 (-200) the line is far too risky. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

The Under is 3-1 in the last 4 Cincinnati-Cleveland matchups overall and is 4-2 in Cleveland’s last 6 overall. The Under has also hit in 3 of Abbott’s last 5 starts and hit in his only career start vs. Cleveland.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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The Cincinnati Reds (80-77) and the Cleveland Guardians (74-83) kick off a 2-game interleague series Tuesday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Reds snapped a 4-game losing streak Sunday, grabbing a much-needed win in 3-game set in Pittsburgh against the already eliminated Pirates. Cincinnati currently sits 2 1/2 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot with 5 games remaining. Analytics shows the Reds with a mere 8.2% chance of making the postseason.

The Guardians gave the Baltimore Orioles a hard time over the weekend, splitting a 4-game set. Cleveland’s offense dried up in the final 2 games, both losses, totaling just 2 runs. The Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 games for the Guardians.

Reds at Guardians projected starters

RHP Hunter Greene vs. RHP Lucas Giolito

Greene (4-6, 4.24 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9 in 104 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 14 K in 5-3 home loss vs. the Minnesota Twins last Wednesday
• 2023 road splits: 3-2, 3.68 ERA (63 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 4 HR, .227 OBA in 12 starts

Giolito (8-14, 4.60 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 176 innings with the White Sox, Angels and Guardians.

• Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-2 road loss vs. the Kansas City Royals last Wednesday
• 2023 home splits: 5-4, 3.19 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 12 HR, .193 OBA in 14 starts

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Reds at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:58 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Guardians -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+155) | Guardians +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U):  8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Reds at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 4, Guardians 2

Moneyline

The REDS (-110) are a solid play on the road against the Guardians (-110).

While Cincinnati hasn’t exactly played with a sense of urgency, dropping 4 of the past 5 games overall at an inopportune time, and just 11-11 in the month of September, it should take care of business in Cleveland.

Giolito has been very giving, serving up 37 HR in 176 IP overall, including 7 dingers in just 22 IP across 4 starts since landing in Cleveland, losing 3 of those outings.

Run line/Against the spread

The REDS -1.5 (+155) are a solid play on the run line, as I expect Cincinnati to power up against Giolito, and cover in a much-needed win against the Guardians +1.5 (-190).

While Cincinnati is just 4-11 in the past 15 games as a favorite, and 3-5 in the past 8 on the run line as a favorite, one of those covers was in the most recent meeting with Cleveland on Aug. 16.

Over/Under

The UNDER 8 (-115) might be the best play on the board.

While Giolito scares me due to his penchant for serving up homers, and a lot of them, the Guardians offense has managed a total of just 2 runs in the past 2 games, while the total has gone low in 4 of the past 5 games overall.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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