Tag: Reds Cubs odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (53-80) look to even up the 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs (57-78) Wednesday. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Cubs lead 7-4

The Reds lost 9-3 in Tuesday’s opener and have now lost 10 of their last 14 on the road.

The Chicago offense got back on track Tuesday after they scored just 29  runs on a 9-game road trip where they posted a 2-7 record.

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Reds at Cubs projected starters

LHP Mike Minor vs. RHP Javier Assad

Minor (3-10, 5.98 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 84 1/3 IP.

  • In 7 road starts this season he has a 5.82 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 1.9 HR/9 in 38 2/3 IP
  • Both his 17.4% K% and his 9.4% K-BB% are the lowest marks of his career by a pretty wide margin

Assad (0-0, 0.90 ERA) makes his 4th appearance and 3rd start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 10 IP.

  • Rookie has held the opposition scoreless in both of his starts, but walked more (6) than he struck out (4)
  • In 23 appearances (21 starts) in the minors this season split between Double-A and Triple-A he had a 2.66 ERA and 9.2 K/9.

Reds at Cubs odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:29 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Reds +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Cubs -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-180) | Cubs -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Reds at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 6, Cubs 5

Money line

Assad has had nice results early on, but both starting pitchers in this matchup are displaying subpar skills. This looks like an even matchup that could go either way and -145 is too much to lay on the young Cubs’ right-hander. A small play on REDS +120 is the call.

Run line/Against the spread

Odds are this will be a close game, but there doesn’t seem to be much value on either side of the run line. It’s best to PASS, but a small wager on REDS -1.5 (+180) is worth considering, as regression could hit Assad hard at any time.

Over/Under

The Reds are averaging just 3.57 runs per game on the road, which ranks 27th in the league, and they are also bottom 5 in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. Meanwhile the Cubs rank 22nd in wRC+ vs. southpaws.

Even so, with these 2 below-average starters on the mound, the bats are in a good spot Wednesday. Either pitcher is capable of getting blown up and this total should go OVER 7.5 (-130) without too much trouble.

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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (53-79) visit the Chicago Cubs (56-78) to begin a 3-game series Tuesday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is 7:40 pm. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Chicago leads 6-4

The Chicago Cubs have lost 4 series in a row including a recent sweep by the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend. They hope for a fresh start at home against the Reds, who are also out of the hunt in the NL Central.

The Reds are coming off a 10-0 shutout win against the Colorado Rockies Sunday. They are batting .274 over the past 5 games, which is much higher than their 2022 average of .242.

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Reds at Cubs projected starters

RHP Justin Dunn vs. LHP Wade Miley

Dunn (1-2, 4.63 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 23 1/3 IP.

  • Has tossed 5 IP or fewer in 5 of his 6 starts
  • Last start: No Decision vs. Cardinals last Tuesday with 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB and 4 K

Miley (1-0, 2.84 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 19 IP.

  • Making his first start since a June 10th no-decision at the New York Yankees due to a shoulder injury
  • Has allowed a .172 opponent batting average to left-handed hitters in 2022

Reds at Cubs odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:13 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Cubs -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-150) | Cubs -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Reds at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 4, Reds 3

Money line

The Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 games when they allow 2 runs or less in their last game. The Cubs have won 6 of their previous 8 home games when they face a team with a losing record. The Cubs are the better team on paper and should win at home.

The straight money line is heavily juiced but you can find more value with CUBS 9 INNINGS ML (-145).

Run line/Against the spread

Cincinnati is 32-32 ATS on the road and the Cubs are slightly worse at home with an ATS record of 32-34. Best to AVOID the spread.

Over/Under

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Over in 2 of their 15 games when coming back from a day off.
The Reds have struggled to maintain a hitting streak, going Under 4 straight times after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati Red at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (74-66) continue on their nine-game road trip with the third and final game in their series against the Chicago Cubs (64-76) Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Wednesday marks the rubber match of the three-game set and is also the final meeting of the teams this year. Cincinnati leads 11-7 through the first 18 games of the season series.

Reds RHP Vladimir Gutierrez (9-6, 4.17 ERA) makes his 19th start as a rookie. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 99 1/3 IP.

  • Gutierrez has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 18 outings. The Reds are 7-3 on the road in his starts.
  • He has not made it out of the fourth inning in either of his last two starts and has an ERA of 11.37 in those 6 1/3 innings.

Cubs RHP Alec Mills (6-6, 4.25 ERA) makes his 16th start and 28th appearance. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 95 1/3 IP.

  • He is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in 12 2/3 innings pitched against the Reds across two starts and one relief appearance.
  • The Cubs are 6-9 this season when he starts.

Reds at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Cubs -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+133) | Cubs +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Prediction

Cubs 6, Reds 5

Money line (ML)

The Reds are 11-7 against the Cubs this season, but their win on Monday was only their third in the last 10 games. They are 36-33 on the road this season but have lost five of their last eight road contests.

The Cubs’ loss on Monday snapped a seven-game win streak. They won Mills’ last two starts as he allowed only 2 earned runs over his last 14 innings.

Take the CUBS (-103).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Reds have only covered the spread in 47.1% of their games this season. They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 8-10 ATS against the Cubs.

The Cubs have covered the spread in three straight matches and in six of their last 10 games. However, they have covered the spread in just 43.7% of their home games.

Betting the Cubs on the money line is the best value as you get even money on your wager, but if you want to you give yourself some leeway and bet the spread take the CUBS +1.5 (-160).

Over/Under (O/U)

Neither game in this series has had 10 or more runs, and only 8 of 18 games between the two teams have had totals of 10 or more.

53.0% of the games at Wrigley Field this season have hit the Over.

Nine of the Cubs’ last 15 games have had 10 or more combined runs.

Take OVER 9.5 (+110).

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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (64-75) host the Cincinnati Reds (73-66) Tuesday for the second game of their three-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago upset Cincy in the series opener 4-3. The Cubs came out the gate with a 3-run bottom of the 1st before the Reds tied the game with a 3-run top of the 6th but Chicago 1B Frank Schwindel‘s go-ahead RBI single in the bottom of the 8th was the difference-maker.

Season series: Reds lead 10-7.

LHP Wade Miley gets the nod for the Reds. Miley is 11-5 with a 2.97 ERA (148 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 25 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-4, with 4 IP, 5 ER, 12 H, 1 BB and 2 K vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday.
  • Miley is 2-0 against Chicago this season with a 2.74 ERA (23 IP, 7 ER), 1.52 WHIP and 1.7 K/BB in four starts.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster (120 PA): 2.58 FIP with a .239 batting average (BA), .284 wOBA, .338 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 15.8 K% and 85.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Adrian Sampson is Chicago’s projected starter. Sampson is 0-1 with a 1.59 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 2 ER) with 10 H, 2 BB and 11 K across one start and four relief appearances.

  • Sampson got a no-decision in Chicago’s 7-1 win in Cincy Aug. 18 in his only start this season. He had 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 2 K in the outing.

Reds at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Cubs +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-105) | Cubs +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Cubs 6, Reds 5

Money line (ML)

If anyone has guesses as to how the tanking Chicago Cubs are on a seven-game win streak I’m all ears. Chicago moved its championship core and three best relief pitchers at the trade deadline but have been three games better over the past 20 than a Cincy team in the NL Wild Card hunt.

Over the past two weeks, Chicago’s lineup is in the top 10 of wRC+, wOBA and WAR while Cincy’s has ranked 24th or worse in each metric. Also, we are getting a substantial “line freeze” in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the cash wagered is on the Reds but their price hasn’t budged since the opening number. It’s pretty sketchy that four of five bettors are taking Cincy but the line hasn’t moved. Hmmmmm.

Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS (+133) for a tiny wager because Chicago’s run line has more value in my opinion.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the CUBS +1.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of their money line because of the aforementioned analysis.

We have the same “line freeze” situation with the run line as the money line market. Also, Cincy’s bullpen has been its biggest question mark all season. Chicago’s lineup could certainly “sneak in the backdoor” and cover against the Reds relievers if this game doesn’t go the way we expect it.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the UNDER 9.5 (-115) because both sides of the market are hammering the Under for reasons I’m not very clear on. Since I cannot find any Under-friendly angles, I’ll stick with the Cubs’ sides wagers.

However, the sportsbooks have reacted by bringing the Reds-Cubs total down from the 10.5-run opener to the current price so the House is leery about all the pro-Under money.

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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (51-49) and Chicago Cubs (50-51) square off in the second game of their series at Wrigley Field Tuesday night, with the first pitch coming at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Vladimir Gutierrez is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 4-3 with a 4.97 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 54 1/3 IP over 10 starts.

Gutierrez struggled in his last outing, allowing six runs on nine hits in only four innings against the Mets. He pitched well in his previous two starts, though, allowing only three runs in 12 innings. In his only career appearance against the Cubs, he pitched five innings and allowed one run in a loss back on May 28.

RHP Adbert Alzolay is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 4-10 with a 4.58 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 88 1/3 IP over 17 starts.

Alzolay has allowed four earned runs or fewer in each start this season, but he’s gone more than five innings only seven times in 17 starts. He limited the Cardinals to three runs in six innings last time out, striking out a season-high eight batters. He is 1-1 against the Reds this season, allowing three runs in 12 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Reds at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:49 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Cubs -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-130) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 5, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

The Reds were stunned in the ninth inning last night as SS Javy Baez hit a pinch-hit walk-off single to put the Cubs in the win column, 6-5. Cincinnati had won four in a row against the Cubs prior to this loss, but it will bounce back tonight.

Gutierrez should pitch better than he did against the Mets last week, which gives the Reds a good chance to win. Bet the REDS (+145) to win outright on the road.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Cincinnati is only 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, four games worse than the Cubs (6-4 ATS) in that same span. But with a powerful offense and a solid rookie starter on the mound, this is a game they should be able to keep within one run.

Bet the REDS +1.5 (-130) to cover against the Cubs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone Under in five of the Reds’ last six road games and four of the Cubs’ last six overall. The matchups between these two this season have been on the lower-scoring side, too.

While Alzolay won’t go deep into the game, he should limit the Reds to no more than four runs, which will put this one on the bullpen. I think the total goes UNDER 10 (-110) tonight.

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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Monday betting preview and top picks

Monday betting picks as Wade Miley and the Cincinnati Reds take on Kyle Hendricks and the Chicago Cubs.

The Cincinnati Reds (51-48) and Chicago Cubs (49-51) match up Monday night at Wrigley Field, with first pitch coming at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Wade Miley is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 8-4 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 through 102 2/3 IP spanning 17 starts.

Miley has been outstanding in July, with just 3 earned runs allowed over 21 innings through three starts. He allowed more than 2 runs in an outing just once since May 19 and has given up only 93 hits across 102 2/3 innings all season. In 13 career starts against the Cubs, Miley is 7-4 with a 4.29 ERA.

RHP Kyle Hendricks is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 12-4 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 through 117 1/3 IP spanning 20 starts.

Hendricks has pitched well this month with a 2.19 ERA and 2-0 record through four starts. He has given up more than 2 runs in an outing just once since June 12, lowering his ERA from 4.59 to 3.61 in his last eight starts. He’s 6-5 with a 4.24 ERA in 20 career starts against the Reds.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Reds at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-190) | Cubs -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Reds 4, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

The Reds are just 4-6 over their last 10 games, one game worse than the Cubs’ 5-5 record in the same span. Cincinnati won three of its last five games and two of the last three, though, and has scored the ninth-most runs per game in baseball.

With Miley rolling of late, I like the REDS (+105) to win on the road over the Cubs – a team they’ve won four in a row against.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Reds are road underdogs tonight despite having the better offense and starter on the mound. It hurts that they won’t have OF Nick Castellanos in the lineup, but Cincinnati is still more than capable of beating Chicago.

Bet the REDS +1.5 (-190) with the run of insurance at Wrigley.

Over/Under (O/U)

In the last four head-to-head meetings, the Reds and Cubs combined for more than 5 total runs just once. They combined for 6 or fewer runs in six of their nine meetings this season.

Both pitchers have been throwing the ball well in recent weeks, which is why I like the UNDER 8.5 (-115).

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